Jason Daniels previews the final round of the Saudi International, where a young Italian can make inroads and post a top-five finish.
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2pts Renato Paratore to finish in the top five at 3/1
And so to payday at the Saudi International and after a tough third day we may be in for something similar on Sunday afternoon.
During 'Moving Day' the likes of Dustin Johnson, Victor Perez and Matthieu Pavon, amongst others, found the course biting back after rocket starts. Indeed it seemed as though defending champion Johnson would rip the course apart after four birdies through the opening four holes only for the cross-winds to affect his driving, eventually recording a back-nine 37, six worse than the front.
Freely admitting that finding the fairways is key to being able to attack the pins and that he isn't driving it well enough, he could easily improve enough to score in the low 60s but I couldn't be taking 10/1 about it given he really doesn't seem that fussed either way.
At the top of the leaderboard, the mercurial Victor Dubuisson has arrived from absolutely nowhere having shot 81-75 in the Dubai Desert Classic last week.
With zero worthwhile form since May 2019, he wasn't fancied to back up a second-round 65 but put up some impressive stats in the only bogey-free round of the day. Returning to a set of clubs from a couple of years ago seems to have given him new belief and, being a confidence player, it wouldn't totally shock to see him prove best.
He actually leads his Sunday rival in head-to-heads despite Graeme McDowell's massive advantage in actual victories, and will be comfortable playing alongside his Ryder Cup team-mate and playing partner. However, given he still has to prove this isn't out of the norm, is only two from seven when in the final pairing, and is a player that can throw the toys out of the pram, the 7/2 on offer wouldn't be far off.
Graeme McDowell has shown sporadic form worldwide but can still produce top finishes and victories when conditions suit, the latest win coming in the Dominican Republic last season and a top-five in Hawaii last month another reminder of that. Clearly, the windier conditions this week have enabled him to more than compete with the boomers of the game and it is forecast to be at its most gusty tomorrow afternoon.
As befits a winner of the US, Scottish and French Opens, the tougher and windier things get the more he will thrive, and that was clear on the 18th hole of round three when pulling his tee shot into the rubbish before an exquisite third, using the wind, led to a four-foot birdie and the solo lead.
Interestingly, McDowell is well behind in scoring on the easiest of holes - the fourth, 10th and 18th - but shared a combined five-under with tomorrow's playing partner through holes 11 to 16, the part of the course where exchange punters will be trading furiously. Take Johnson and Perez, for example, who combined for a seven-over through those same half-a-dozen holes, all playing over par.
Maybe inspired by a Lee Westwood victory at Abu Dhabi, 40-year-old McDowell could easily convert a third-round lead to victory. Given he is much-fancied to beat Dubuisson, is three clear of European maiden Gavin Green and five and six clear of the 'names', he isn't the worst 13/8 shot ever, but there might be a better bet involving third-round rival and improving Italian, RENATO PARATORE.
Last year's final round saw a 62 from Bradley Dredge, 63s from Min Woo Lee and Joost Luiten, a 64 and three 65s, those seven-under scores launching Lee to fourth place and the Dutchman from 27th to sixth. The scores are certainly there, especially if using that slot a couple of hours earlier than the leaders, and there are a few big-hitters around the four-under mark that have plenty of low scores in the locker.
However, plenty of the dangermen like Adri Arnaus and Thomas Pieters have given themselves too much to do in terms of winning the tournament. Perez, however, now out of the pressure cooker of leading, could repeat last year's closing 64 and give the leaders something to think about down the stretch.
He has an unusually high strike-rate of mid-60 final rounds but seems to lose it somewhere during his rounds at the moment. Continuing to appear at the top end, he will undoubtedly win another shortly but on the same score and at double the price, I'm taking Paratore to at least post a top-five finish from a current share of fourth.
Winner of the 2017 Nordea Masters in difficult conditions at the age of 20, it is no surprise that the improver can boast top finishes in Dubai, Qatar, at the Dunhill Links and Crans, all venues that can be played in wind and/or have those undulations that affect below-average putters.
With a similar profile to tomorrow's playing partner Perez, that should be a great two-ball to watch and they'll no doubt inspire each other to some end of the scoring spectrum, and having sandwiched two poor rounds in Abu Dhabi with a first-round leading 64 and closing 66, he has recorded two openers here of 68 and 65 before grinding out a level-par position-holding level-par 70. It's my thought that he can cope whatever comes his way.
Looking at last year's stats, strokes gained driving and approach were extremely relevant as one might expect on such a track and Paratore is currently third in strokes-gained off-the-tee, 11th in strokes-gained approach and leading the way from tee-to-green. We know they can drop at any time and given it is hard to make too much ground on the top lot, the general 3/1 for this exciting, fast, player to confirm a place in the top five does look wrong and rates the best bet on the card.
Posted at 1925 GMT on 01/02/20
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