Brian Harman has the Open in his hands but can the American convert a five-shot lead? Ben Coley previews the final round at Royal Liverpool.
Golf betting tips: Open Championship final round
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood (without Brian Harman) at 17/2 (BoyleSports, bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
2pt double Harrington and Ancer to win their two-balls at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
2pt double Migliozzi and M Fitzpatrick to win their two-balls at 21/10 (bet365)
1pt four-fold Harrington, Ancer, Migliozzi and M Fitzpatrick at 12/1 (bet365)
It's as you were at the very top of the Open leaderboard, Brian Harman having done exceptionally well to restore a five-shot lead following what had been a nightmarish start to the third round.
Two-over through four holes, few would've anticipated what followed as Harman rediscovered his earlier form to play the remaining 14 in four-under, without a single mistake. To do so having no doubt noticed Jon Rahm's name just beneath his on the leaderboard, and with a large crowd almost all cheering for his playing partner Tommy Fleetwood, made it doubly impressive.
Harman is now around the 4/7 mark to convert a five-shot lead. Over the past quarter of a century of men's golf at PGA and European Tour level, such leads have been converted at better than four in five. As was true on Friday night, it's easy to argue the market underestimates Harman, a one-time elite amateur with two good professional wins, a high world ranking, and some experience of leading majors.
His lifetime record with the 54-hole lead reads 1-3-2, the latter having come at the 2017 US Open when he shot 72 having led by one but lost by four to Brooks Koepka. This is a different scenario of course and he'll know that 70 should do the job, which it was never likely to that day. Providing he can get through the first couple of holes without disaster, I expect he'll go on to win this impressively.
Harman will play with Cameron Young in the final group, the latter looking at the prospect of back-to-back runner-up finishes in his first two Open starts. Young was the best player in the field from tee-to-green on Saturday and that's despite an unfortunate ricochet off the 16th flag, before missing a golden opportunity at the 17th. But in making birdie at the last, he might just have done Harman a favour.
But for that, Harman would've been paired with Rahm, the world number three and reigning Masters champion. That's an entirely different proposition to playing with a yet-to-win compatriot and while Young can scare anyone with what he does off the tee, Harman will expect to win the short-game battle. It's also likely their following is smaller and less partisan than would have been the case.
That's the icing on the cake as I see it and Harman is going to be hard to beat, but I am quite happy taking on Rahm at a short enough price in the 'betting without Harman' markets. Rahm is clearly the man to beat but he'll care only about winning and I could see this going one of two ways: another deeply impressive round to challenge the leader, or a day of frustration which leaves the door open for someone else to take second.
Perhaps that man will be TOMMY FLEETWOOD, the only player in history to have carded two final-round 63s in the US Open. Also having stayed on to place in the PGA and the Open last year, Fleetwood may just get back on the bike following a frustrating Saturday in which he did very little wrong.
Fleetwood was far from downcast afterwards, acknowledging that there were a lot of positives and that hope wasn't yet lost, and it really was just a case of a bad putting day at the wrong time. Had he rolled in his birdie putt at the fifth, at a time when Harman was under immense pressure, perhaps the outcome would have been different.
The prospect of a bounce-back final round appears strong given the health of his game, arguably more so if the rain does arrive. It didn't on Saturday, at least not anywhere near to the levels expected, and that may also have cost the Englishman given how good he is at getting on with things.
At around the 8/1 mark, with just two players ahead of him and three places for each-way punters, he looks the right option in a market which should be won by one of five players.
My favourite two-ball bet is early on as PADRAIG HARRINGTON and Robert MacIntyre head to the tee shortly after 8am.
Whereas Harrington left the course rueing a poor day with the putter but generally encouraged with the state of his game, MacIntyre said he was never in the right headspace and simply didn't enjoy himself.
It was impressive that he managed to make the cut given what happened last Sunday but it's been a draining run, missing out there as he had in Denmark and then suffering a tough start on the greens here.
MacIntyre might shrug it off but he didn't sound like someone ready to do that, his focus on getting through the day and resting up for the final Ryder Cup push. It's unlikely Sunday's round has any bearing on Rome now and I can see Harrington, who is eager to be prepared for the Senior Open next week, outscoring his young rival at odds-against.
I'd have taken on fading amateur Christo Lamprecht with almost anyone in the field bar Danny Willett, whose long-game is not in a good way, so preference is for ABRAHAM ANCER to beat Oliver Wilson at similar odds.
There are more than 50 places between these two in the putting stats so far this week, Wilson taking his chances whereas Ancer has failed to, but the Mexican's long-game has been far superior. He has a decent record in tough conditions and that tee-to-green reliability should come in very handy if this rain does arrive at last.
A similar case can be made for Louis Oosthuizen against David Lingmerth while I did strongly consider Thomas Detry at 13/8 to beat Tom Kim. Opposing the Korean didn't pay off on Saturday but while he didn't speak to the media to update on his serious ankle problem, Kim's solid score came about because he was the second best putter in the field.
That suggests to me that he is struggling to make good swings, something he alluded to on Friday, but while Detry has no health concerns his statistical make-up is virtually identical. It's a battle of the putters and while one of them is injured, he's also a more reliable Sunday proposition. Hopefully Kim can defy the odds and land top Korean.
It's been suggested that Matthew Jordan's course experience could be even more valuable in the rain and he'll be keen to end a dream week on a high, but I can't back him against Nicolai Hojgaard such is my respect for the Dane. Indeed I hope he finishes strongly to enhance his Ryder Cup claims on a big day for Europe, with Rozner, Straka and Detry all capable of making big statements.
My final selections for what's been a frankly poor week are MATTHEW FITZPATRICK and GUIDO MIGLIOZZI.
Whether or not Fitzpatrick is really bothered about beating his brother, Alex, I expect him to finish a frustrating week on a high against Sungjae Im. He's got a bit more experience under the conditions and I do think the prospect of both Fitzpatrick brothers finishing inside the top 10 in the same major is something that might resonate.
Migliozzi meanwhile looks overpriced against Michael Stewart, based on their respective performances over a long period of time, the fact that Migliozzi isn't under any real pressure, and the fact that Stewart has rode a really hot putter this week. Migliozzi is a habitual fast finisher, too, and he's shown it in two US Open appearances.
He looks more like a 4/7 chance than the 8/11 you can take and perhaps can help end a disappointing week for this column on a brighter note.
Posted at 2150 BST on 22/07/23
