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Open Championship betting preview: Golf betting tips and analysis
Matt Cooper, Martin Mathews, Dave Tindall and Ben Coley pick out their best bets from the Open Championship sub-markets.
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Justin Rose to finish in the top 20
Former Sky Sports Golf editor Dave Tindall is a regular contributor to betting.betfair.com and various other publications.
Rose bases his season around the majors these days and can still make an impression at this level.
Despite a slip down the world rankings due to his lack of overall consistency, Rose keeps churning out top-10s and 20s in majors. He had two top-10s in 2021 and added a tied 13th at May's US PGA.
In The Open, he turned a poor pro record around with a tied sixth at St Andrews in 2015 and has since added tied 22nd at Troon in 2016, tied second at Carnoustie in 2018 and tied 20th at Royal Portrush in 2019.
Tied fourth at June's Canadian Open, he can cruise to a top 20 at a decent 11/4.
Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top 20
Matt Cooper is a long-time Sporting Life contributor who previews the women's majors for the website and provides tips for multiple tours for betting.betfair.com and others.
I was keen on the Fleetwood's chances and then found myself chatting to the top man at England Golf last night. He in turn had been talking last week with the Englishman's coach who said his man is swinging the club superbly and reaping the rewards tee to green.
The key is on and around the greens, of course, but he’s had great returns from the Old Course at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with eight top-20s from 10 starts and a layout average of 68 (67 in the final round). Quite clearly this week’s field is stronger, but he’s in a comfortable place, in golfing and mindfulness terms.
I recall him tweeting "No better place on earth to soothe your golfing soul than St Andrews. My love for the Old Course continues to grow!" last October. Rock on Tommy.
Wyndham Clark to finish in the top 40
Martin Mathews writes a regular PGA Tour tipping column on his own website, provides in-play event previews for Sporting Life, and is a regular Paddy Power contributor.
Those who have read my own preview this week will know that I have rolled the dice on Wyndham Clark at huge odds each-way. For those less inclined to take a risk though the American strikes me as a cracking bet to post a top-40 finish on his Open debut.
Clark qualified for the Open as a result of his recent seventh in Canada and he has subsequently played nicely at the Travelers and at the Scottish Open last week, so we know he is arriving here in good nick.
With regards to that Scottish Open top-20 it backed up what Clark said upon qualifying, about how much he loves the challenge of links golf and the creativity it requires.
As one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, he will be able to take plenty of the most dangerous bunkers out of play this week and if you ally that to his great putting touch he looks a superb fit for the Old Course. I expect him to enjoy a strong week.
Henrik Stenson to be the top Swedish player
Ben Coley is Sporting Life's deputy editor and long-serving golf columnist and tipster.
Confidence in HENRIK STENSON wouldn't be quite so high as it was in Robert MacIntyre, who won his match for this column at the US Open, but he's entitled to be a strong favourite against Alex Bjork and my view is that anyone pricing this as an each-of-two has it wrong.
Bjork has played in five majors, and he's yet to make a cut. He's not been close, either: 107th at halfway at Portrush, 118th at Carnoustie, 99th at Birkdale; 147th in the 2019 PGA Championship, 125th in the same event a year earlier. Never has he threatened to so much as make the weekend in a major, and all of these came when he was a better player than he is now.
Could he at some stage make a cut? Yes, of course, but St Andrews wouldn't be an obvious fit – he averages 70.75 in the far easier Dunhill Links, and his short, crooked driving is problematic. If he's not hacking out of rough he may well be chipping sideways out of bunkers and he is simply nowhere near as efficient with his tee shots as the only other Swedish player in this tournament.
No, Stenson isn't the player he was either, but his scoring average here is nevertheless significant because it's both lower than Bjork's, and based on performances under tougher conditions in the Open rather than the Dunhill Links. He was third here in 2010, made the cut in 2015, and then became a major champion at Troon a year later. Whereas Bjork lacks proper links form, Stenson has it in abundance.
Stenson has also played a bit better lately, particularly when finishing second in the Scandinavian Mixed, and while behind Bjork last week, he suffered the worst of the draw whereas his younger compatriot got the best of it. Flip those tee-times and you might well flip the result, but the bigger point here is that the Scottish Open is not a major, and that where these two are concerned we should absolutely view majors differently.
Stenson has finished 11th, 35th and 20th in the Open during the years which saw Bjork shoot big numbers and depart early. He beat him at Bellerive and at Bethpage in the US PGA. And, if Bjork struggles as I expect him to, Stenson will probably beat him again here, too.
Posted at 2100 BST on 12/07/22
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