It's USA all the way at the top of the PGA Championship leaderboard, but Ben Coley fancies Louis Oosthuizen to pick the pockets of the front two.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship final round
2pts Louis Oosthuizen to win the PGA Championship at 6/1 (General)
3pts Patrick Cantlay to beat Tony Finau at 11/10 (General)
1pt Cantlay lowest round of the day at 33/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
0.5pt e.w. Taylor Gooch lowest round of the day at 90/1 (BoyleSports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
When Phil Mickelson hooked his drive into the water at the 13th hole on Saturday, there was a collective exhalation from the golfing public, who might have well said 'well, it was fun while it lasted' in chorus. Half an hour earlier, the 50-year-old had led by five and, having pounded two accurate shots to the front of the par-five 11th green, looked set to extend that advantage to six. Yet suddenly and inevitably, his advantage was all but gone.
That it was Brooks Koepka who was now within a shot added to that belief. Showing few signs of discomfort just two months on from surgery on a dislocated kneecap, Koepka had stuttered just a little with a bogey at the ninth and his failure to birdie the 11th. But in went a 20-foot putt at the 12th, and soon he was back at the top of the market with a fifth major in sight.
There was and is a danger that we underestimate Mickelson, and even that we overestimate Koepka. Mickelson's age and regression both have to be considered, because they bring in possibilities which his supporters will not want to face. Perhaps he will get tired as we close in on 72 holes at a long course which is mentally and physically demanding. Worse, perhaps his nerve is shattered.
But through his brilliance, the dream is still alive, and so it will remain for a good few hours yet. That he responded to a run of 5-5-6 with five pars to the clubhouse, hitting excellent shots on the difficult par-threes and a brave pitch to salvage par at the last, was seriously impressive. And he now goes into the final round seeking history: to become the oldest man to win a major championship.
Koepka is a more likely winner from just a shot behind, that much is obvious. In his favour is the fact that he is the standout major golfer of his generation, having won as many as Rory McIlroy and gone past Jordan Spieth.
He is not though immune to failure nor the debilitating power of nerves, and in this very championship last August he went from two behind to 29th. A year and a bit earlier, don't forget that for a while during the final round of the PGA at Bethpage he wobbled, badly, as Dustin Johnson pushed him to his limits.
With lingering concerns that his knee could flare up and forced flared drives still there, it's hard to side with him, not least because he was there to be chanced at 11/1 after round one and 4/1 after round two. But backers at 45/1 pre-tournament are entitled to be bullish. Should Koepka win, by the way, that'll be two victories in his last six starts, both at 45/1, both on the back of missed cuts. It's a point to remember for one day in the future.
For today, I'm happy to recommend a bet on LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN, who is a shot behind Koepka yet can be backed at 6/1 rather than the 6/4 attached to the name of the player most will expect to win.
Oosthuizen, like Mickelson, is a little easy to underestimate. Yes, it's reasonable to criticise him for not having won on US soil, a frankly ludicrous fact. Yes, it's 11 years since he won the Open Championship, and subsequently he's picked up a collection of titles at home in South Africa, as well as others in Australia and Malaysia and generally in places where only a handful of us are watching.
Is he an underachiever? Maybe, given a picture-perfect swing and the fact that right now he's statistically the best putter on the PGA Tour. Indeed i's possible to use Saturday's third round as a simple demonstration of what's amiss: just as he'd edged closer to Mickelson, he too found water; later, when given the chance to join him in the lead, he missed from close-range at 16, and three-putted 17.
Nevertheless, he did fight back well after a slow start and will I'm sure be delighted to sit this close to the leader having not been at his best. And I don't see performance under pressure as a black and white thing. For my money, he was close to flawless during the final round of the 2012 Masters until a bogey in the play-off, and his performances in defeat in what's a famous clean sweep of major seconds generally stand up well. This isn't a golfer we can accuse of wilting under pressure, and he could so easily have four of these in the locker, the same number as Koepka.
Now free from the glare of the final group, which make no mistake will dominate coverage and attract a huge majority of the crowds, Oosthuizen could just enjoy playing with quiet veteran Kevin Streelman and do enough to stick around. On a windy day, that could be enough and if these two macho members of the final group get embroiled in an aggressive head-to-head, someone might just pick their pockets.
Ultimately were you to design a perfect scenario for Oosthuizen to creep over the line in a major, this might be it: right there close enough, and yet with all eyes on others. Combine that with what looks a very good price and he is worth a bet.
Can't keep missing... or can he?
The best two-ball bet is PATRICK CANTLAY at odds-against to beat Tony Finau, the pair going out again after the spoils were shared on Saturday.
This comes down to two things: Cantlay's propensity for a scorching Sunday, and the way they have gone about making their respective scores. Finau is outside the top 40 and losing strokes in driving, approach play and putting. His around-the-green stats are off the charts, leading the field ahead of Jordan Spieth, and such numbers are, well, built on sand.
Cantlay on the other hand ranks seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green, a figure based on his driving (seventh) and iron play (fourth). Usually a rounded player whose short-game is not a concern, he has scope to improve and from just outside the top 10 he's also tempting at 33/1 to record the lowest round of the day.
In the same market, Jon Rahm should be favourite and 20/1 in a field of 81 isn't unreasonable. He struck his irons really well on Saturday and left the course a frustrated figure. Never one to throw in the towel, he produced the lowest round on Sunday at the Masters and could well repeat the trick.
However, I'll take a small chance on TALOR GOOCH at a bigger price.
Gooch is proved in the wind, which helps given that it is forecast to get up during the afternoon, but the particularly interesting angle here is that the top 15 earn invites to next year's tournament. It's being played at Southern Hills in Oklahoma, which is Gooch's home state, and I'm certain he'll be both desperate to be there, and aware this is his first chance to qualify.
Having shot 70 to move up 25 places into a share of 38th in the third round, he now has a realistic chance to get inside that top 15 and it should ensure he at least goes out and plays aggressively. In the circumstances I don't mind rolling the dice, and whatever happens I expect the low round to come from someone away from the realistic title challengers.
Robert MacIntyre is also on the shortlist at 60/1 in a place while the 5/2 BoyleSports offer about him finishing ahead of Martin Laird as the top Scotsman is somewhat tempting. MacIntyre is three behind, however, and 5/2 in a two-ball handicap in which he gives his countryman a three-shot start perhaps isn't quite big enough.
Posted at 1020 BST on 23/05/21
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