Dustin Johnson holds all the aces ahead of the final round of The Northern Trust, previewed by Ian Richards.
Recommended bets
2pts Alex Noren top-10 finish at 11/5
1pt e.w. Alex Noren (betting without Dustin Johnson) at 80/1
2pts Sebastian Munoz to beat Chez Reavie at 11/8
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The Northern Trust is the first of the three FedEx Playoff events with the top 70 players moving on to next week and then the top 30 after next week onto the Tour Championship.
We have lost two of the favourites already this week in the shape of Bryson Dechambeau and Colin Morikawa but they are already locks for the final event and many still playing this weekend are trying to prolong their seasons.
Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy have steadily got worse each day this week and I would love to oppose them in a two ball but sadly they are paired together again.
After the fireworks of Friday which saw Scottie Scheffler shoot the magic 59 and Dustin Johnson only shoot a 60 after a lacklustre final seven holes the really low scores dried up on 'moving day' with only Tyrell Hatton and Alex Noren going through the field with a 63 and 64 respectively.
Then Dustin Johnson took advantage of the course conditions following a one-hour delay due to a storm and shot three under over the last seven holes when one under the day before would have led to his own 59.
Somehow I don’t really think he’s that bothered and he takes a five shot lead into the final round.
If you are looking for the eventual winner then only Rory has come from off the pace here at Boston – if you aren’t in the top three and within striking distance of the lead then you are unlikely to be lifting the trophy after 72 holes.
That basically narrows it down to the top three in the market and with Scheffler yet to win on the PGA tour and Harris English still to add to his two wins seven years ago, it is difficult to oppose Johnson.
While he has thrown in the odd howler when in the final two ball on a Sunday before now, I can’t see a repeat of the 77 at the WGC and Sheeshan in 2017 or the 80 at the US Open in 2010 at Pebble Beach.
With Johnson unopposable in the outright I've looked elsewhere for some final round betting, hoping that readers of Ben's column will get some reward from each-way bets on Oosthuizen or Hatton.
Noren is well known in Europe for his final round heroics, coming from seven back to win the Open de France in 2018, and the same number at Wentworth a year earlier to win going away.
There are plenty of other examples of him going really low on the final day and that certainly has been the case recently on the PGA tour.
In the 3M Open, a Sunday 66 helped him climb from 6th to 3rd, a final round 66 moved him from 15th to 9th at the Barracuda and while he could only reach 22nd at the US PGA Championship, he did so with a knock of 67.
He has improved his scoring in every round this week and one more decent round will see him comfortably into the top 70 for next week – the biggest question is what market to play him in?
The safest option is to take the 11/5 he stays within the top 10 while another really good final round could see him close the gap on the group two ahead and into the top five.
Most books are also offering a 'without Dustin Johnson' market and although it’s a big ask with him being five back of the two favourites and only three places on offer, odds of 80/1 each-way (Ladbrokes, Coral) are tempting enough.
Going through the two balls I was looking for a pairing where one player has it all to do to get into next week and the other can play more relaxed golf, comfortable with his position in the rankings.
Chez Reavie is a 'bubble' man this week and as is 76th as it stands so obviously needs a low one, whereas his opponent today, Sebastian Munoz, has basically already booked his ticket to the Tour Championship.
When you add in the fact Reavie sits near the bottom in final-round scoring averages on the PGA Tour then there's a fair case for the odds on this pairing being the other way round.
Posted at 0940 on 23/08/20
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