Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Qatar Masters

Golf betting tips: Qatar Masters

1pt e.w. Jamie Donaldson at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Steven Brown at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Matthew Southgate at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Francesco Laporta at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. James Morrison at 150/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Nino Bertasio at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds - seven places | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Sky Bet will be holding prices on the above selections for 1hr post-publication - prices may differ from those quoted above which are best available

Making the best of a difficult situation has been the job description of just about every chief executive bar those in charge of supermarkets over the last 12 months. Keith Pelley has done it better than most. Despite losing tournaments across the continent and beyond, Pelley and his team — among whom chief medical officer Andrew Murray has performed wonders — have managed to guide the European Tour through troubled waters and back to Qatar, where an engrossing play-off between Jorge Campillo and David Drysdale was the final act before a three-month shutdown in 2020.

Thanks to a strict set of Covid-19 protocols, which have been enforced to the letter, the Tour was able to return in June to complete a 38-event season, taking only Masters week off until a break for Christmas. For their part, there was something close to unanimity among players that rather than represent an inconvenience, entering bubbles formed at hotels in Celtic Manor or Lake Garda was in fact a reminder that, in the grand scheme of things, they are pretty fortunate.

Now it's back to Qatar, the Oman Open scheduled for last week having been lost, for the first event in five weeks. Another small inconvenience. From here they'll fly to Kenya where two events will take place, the second one beginning 36 hours after the first has finished. Beyond that, who can be sure, but if the Spanish swing set for April cannot go ahead, reports suggest the European Tour will do something else it hasn't done before and head to Florida instead.

When it comes to previewing golf tournaments, all this shapeshifting can and does complicate matters. For example we know that Andy Sullivan, Thomas Detry and Laurie Canter are among those that played a WGC two weeks ago, while Thomas Pieters headed to Puerto Rico, but what about everyone else? Oliver Wilson it seems has been teeing off at Quail Hollow, Dale Whitnell lost a money game to Chris Paisley in Florida, and some of the South Africans played in the KitKat Group Pro-Am back home on the Sunshine Tour. Eddie Pepperell, meanwhile, appears to have been taking on a different kind of KitKat challenge.

That's the first reason we need to be somewhat cautious. The second is that Education City hosts this event for just the second time, having taken over from the familiar surroundings of Doha GC last year. One renewal is not much to go on, and as was the case then, wind — pretty much a constant part of Qatar calculations — is set to blow, especially at the weekend.

Sharpness or lack thereof could be a big factor, and it suggests there could be some mileage in the front of the market where several of those mentioned can be found. Aaron Rai, who performed best of the European Tour regulars in the World Golf Championship event won by Collin Morikawa, is one such possibility and his neat-and-tidy game fits in nicely with last year's leaderboard. But his Middle East form amounts to little, and I have nagging doubts.

Matthias Schwab, who has evidently been back in a local school gym to work on his short-game, is the player I find hardest to leave out. Along with Sean Crocker and Adri Arnaus, he's one of a clutch of maidens who are producing elite ball-striking displays on an almost weekly basis, and at some stage — soon, I expect — the door will swing open. Again though, he's 22/1 generally, like Rai his form in this part of the world isn't great, and this just isn't the time to be hoping for that decent putting display he needs to be right there at the weekend.

PLAYERS Championship betting preview

My focus then is on a collection of outsiders who might outperform their odds, an acknowledgement of the fact that the first two winners post-lockdown in 2020 were sent off at three-figure prices. If shocks are going to happen, it strikes me that wind, a relatively new course, and a break in the schedule are among the key ingredients and I'm hoping they help JAMES MORRISON earn his third European Tour title.

Morrison was playing nicely when last we saw him, and that was a continuation of the form he showed from Celtic Manor onwards last year. Dating back to that fortnight in Wales he's played in 13 tournaments, making 11 cuts, and the two he missed came first by a shot at Wentworth, and then by two in the Dubai Desert Classic which was won by Paul Casey and featured the likes of Morikawa, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood.

This is a significantly lower level than both of those, and that's an important point to remember when assessing his level of play as well as a more recent form line which reads 46-MC-41 and might otherwise hint that he's returned since Christmas with a few problems to tidy up. Besides, the courses which make up the traditional Middle East swing in January all play longer and into the hands of the more modern golfer.

In reality, Morrison continues to putt well, his approach play was back on-song in Saudi Arabia, and if last year's Qatar Masters is a reliable guide then his short and essentially modest driving might not be too much of an issue here at Education City. Campillo and Drysdale are short, steady operators, and the top of the leaderboard was packed with such players, Niklas Lemke and class act George Coetzee the only exceptions among the top 10.

If you delve deeper into where the two play-off protagonists in particular have played well, there are a couple of other interesting hints that Morrison — not that far back in 21st despite a slow start and when in worse form — might be really well suited to the assignment.

The top five on the final leaderboard, namely Campillo, Drysdale, Kalle Samooja, Lemke and Jeff Winther, all went on to play really well across that two-week stay in Cyprus at Aphrodite Hills. These are not elite players, and for them all to rock up at a brand new venue eight months down the line and finish between 14th and second may well tell us something significant.

Morrison didn't quite match those exploits, but he did shoot rounds of 63 and 66 in the Cyprus Showdown and that earned him a place on the shortlist.

Then there's Sevilla, a course which, like Education City, is designed by Jose Maria Olazabal (thanks to Matt Cooper for the nudge on that one). Morrison lost a play-off there in 2010 before winning the Open de Espana five years later. Along with a coastal victory in Portugal, all of that also represents evidence of how well he can play in the wind. Sevilla is where Drysdale has been second, and Campillo fifth.

All of this makes for an interesting case for a player who is good enough to win. Just how sharp he'll be given the situation in the UK isn't clear, but at 125/1 generally and 150/1 in places that's a risk I'll happily take.

Oman Open could provide clues

The other course I think could help guide us this week is Al Mouj, home of the Oman Open. Like Education City, it is exposed and not overly long, the seriousness of the challenge dictated by the strength of the breeze, and Campillo has two top-four finishes, with Drysdale, Winther and Paisley others to have contended to some degree at both.

Clement Sordet, a talented Frenchman who was runner-up in a small, local event back home a week ago, is of interest as a result. When last we saw him, he was 13th in the Golf in Dubai Championship and he'd been striking it well for months. His form in Oman includes a win on the Challenge Tour, and second and 10th at this higher level, and ever since he competed with world-class players to finish second in Thailand he's looked a player capable of establishing himself on the European Tour.

He's definitely of some interest, having apparently been able to do plenty of practice at home, but I prefer the more established credentials of MATTHEW SOUTHGATE at just a slightly shorter price.

Although his form at Al Mouj doesn't leap off the page, Southgate led into the final round there in 2018, and we know he's a fabulous wind and links exponent. That reputation runs right back to his amateur days, and more recently his best chance to win on the European Tour came in the Dunhill Links a couple of years ago when he bumped into the classy Victor Perez.

Last year's missed cut here is no concern because he hadn't yet made one in 2020 and was simply playing bad golf wherever he went. I'd rather focus on that Oman Open form, his record under the forecast conditions, and some really eye-catching rounds to start the year including 65s in both Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia, which helped him to personal-best finishes in both tournaments.

Southgate is an excellent driver of the ball and that's largely because of his accuracy, and the high-class events on pretty big courses which kick off the season don't really suit. Like Morrison, his form should be upgraded as a result, and he too showed just enough at Aphrodite Hills, finishing with a flourish in the Cyprus Open to share 17th, to tick that admittedly obscure and hopeful box.

Southgate has gained strokes off the tee in every event he's played for over a year now, and in the hope things get really tricky over the weekend, the way he's able to control his ball could be a huge advantage. He's a really decent bet at the odds, all things considered, and if he putts as well as he did last time I think he'll be a factor.

Italian stallions

Next I'll turn to a pair of Italians at three-figure prices, with FRANCESCO LAPORTA and NINO BERTASIO both capable of getting competitive if building on what they've shown lately.

Laporta arrived on the European Tour as something of a late bloomer, but one who had won the Challenge Tour Grand Final to top the 2019 standings, and bagged a top-10 finish in a Rolex Series event back home along the way.

When he contended straight away in Abu Dhabi, rubbing shoulders with the best around, plenty would've expected him to kick on and compete with fellow graduate Antoine Rozner, who by the end of the season was looking a potential Ryder Cup candidate and is now set to start as one of the favourites for this.

Clearly, it hasn't happened in quite the same way for Laporta but he did end on a high to chase home Rozner in Dubai thanks to a quality ball-striking display, and that means we've two really good lines of form in the Middle East, where it appears he spends plenty of time practicing as so many do.

This year has got off to a stuttering start on the face of it but he gained almost seven strokes tee-to-green when sneaking into the Abu Dhabi field, over just two rounds, before missing the cut on the number. That's outstanding ball-striking, just as good as he'd hit it at the end of 2020, and suggests he remains in really good nick.

After that he wasn't quite as sharp in Saudi Arabia but again he missed the cut by a shot. Over his last nine starts, all four missed cuts have been by the narrowest of margins and he simply looks like he's playing much better than his results suggest.

An accurate driver who has some good form by the coast in Sicily and Portugal, perhaps he can repeat that runner-up finish in similar company at the end of last year on what's his debut in the Qatar Masters.

As for Bertasio, he's been hitting his irons well and holing putts, which is a strength of his, and he's a player I've always felt looks capable of improving on what we've seen so far.

Across the final two rounds last year, he played the best golf in the field by a couple of shots here at Education City, improving as conditions worsened, and leading the way in strokes-gained approach. In sharing seventh he bagged what proved to be his sole top-10 finish of the campaign, and perhaps that tells us he really took to the place.

Bertasio ranked 16th in strokes-gained approach in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year and 28th in Dubai, both of them world-class fields. He was 11th at halfway in the first of them, rallied to make the weekend in the second, and played well enough after a bad start in the Saudi International to believe he remains in decent shape.

Go back far enough and he has stacks of form to suggest he should relish conditions, including top-five finishes in the Scottish Open and the Trophee Hassan (Campillo a winner there), top-20s at Wentworth and Le Golf National, 15th in the Dunhill Links and ninth in the Aussie PGA, and he's a big price.

Ryder Cup star ready to win again

Finally, for selections you may even have heard of try JAMIE DONALDSON and STEVEN BROWN.

Donaldson wasn't playing at all well before missing the cut here last year and is better judged on how he's performed post-lockdown, contending on several occasions. Notably, he finished third and 19th across the fortnight in Cyprus, and went on to compete with Christiaan Bezuidenhout down in South Africa.

It was certainly a comeback year for the straight-hitting Welshman, who has wins in the Middle East and in breezy conditions in Northern Ireland and Denmark to his name, and he did everything well when 33rd in Saudi Arabia last time, gaining strokes through the bag, ranking third in fairways, sixth in greens, and first in overall accuracy as a result.

Clearly at his best when there's some breeze around and also boasting a good record at Sevilla, where he was 10th on his last visit, this former Ryder Cup star could put experience to use under the forecast conditions and may even take a little inspiration from Lee Westwood's heroics at Bay Hill over the weekend, the pair having formed a successful Ryder Cup partnership back in 2014.

Form in the Portugal Masters has always correlated nicely with the Middle East, Qatar in particular, and that puts 2019 winner Brown on the radar as well as Donaldson.

Brown has four top-10 finishes since the European Tour returned last summer, one of them coming in Cyprus and another in Dubai, while last time out he hit the ball really well for 26th place behind Dustin Johnson in the Saudi International.

Brown putted badly there, a rare blip for one who has been making more than his share for two years now (top 30 in 2019 and 2020 seasons), and he found these greens to his liking last March. His form this time is similar but it's that long-game improvement he's shown lately, which extends back to the end of 2020, which really interests me.

As with all selections, it's hard to know how he's kept sharp, but three-figure prices give us something to work with.

Paisley may benefit from having a base in Florida and is respected, as a deadly putter who went well here last year and is playing nicely again. The fact he won the SA Open on his first start in five weeks is also in his favour but having missed the 66/1 he's left out, with Johannes Veerman a shade more tempting given his Cyprus and Portugal form and the fact it was only a rare off week with the putter which prevented him from making the weekend here last year.

Then there's Garrick Higgo, who was in contention back home in South Africa last week, had a chance to win the Cyprus Open, and looks to have a bright future. The left-hander looked to have his long game back under control after a difficult run but a poor final round in modest company perhaps suggests he isn't quite there yet.

Lastly I must mention Shubhankar Sharma, a player I like and one who shot seven rounds in the sixties in Cyprus. Another who missed the cut here on debut but wasn't playing well at the time, there have been just enough signs over the last six months to be interested in him at 175/1. Notably, he stepped up on a so-so start to the year to win in Malaysia in 2018, and that had much to do with the switch to a more suitable course which this could yet prove to be.

As you can tell, there's some guesswork needed here at Education City, and big prices looks the way to go as a result.

Posted at 1000 GMT on 09/03/21

Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record

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