Martin Mathews previews the final round of the Tournament of Champions, where Collin Morikawa seems ideally placed to win his fourth PGA Tour title.
Golf betting tips: Tournament of Champions, January 10
2pts Collin Morikawa to win the Tournament of Champions at 11/4
The Tournament of Champions, which marks the annual return of the PGA Tour, is usually reserved just for winners in the previous calendar year. This time, allowing for the disruption to last year's schedule, all players who bagged a place at the Tour Championship, and therefore finished in the top 30 of the Fedex Cup rankings, received an invite.
It's two such players who share the 54-hole lead, with Ryan Palmer and Harris English having reached 21-under through three rounds as calmer conditions and a soft course have returned Kapalua to a free-scoring shootout.
Palmer, who was also at Kapalua last year courtesy of a win at the Zurich pairs event alongside Jon Rahm in 2019, is winless on a solo basis on the PGA Tour since 2010, with his last triumph also coming in Hawaii at the Sony Open, while English last tasted victory back in 2013 at the Mayakoba Classic.
Both players can boast strong form of late, however English in particular has been one of the PGA Tour's strongest performers since its resumption back in June, missing only one cut since then, and the new season has seen him post four top-10 finishes in six starts already.
In other words the man from Georgia has done everything but win over this period and if he were to go on and lift the trophy today no one could possibly say victory had come out of the blue. Since the start of last season he's been one of the most improved players in the sport.
As for Palmer, while his form over the last season hasn’t been quite as strong as that of English it has never the less been eye-catching, hence of course his place in this field, and having finished Saturday with six birdies in his final seven holes he should be full of positivity going into Sunday.
English’s finish to the third round was slightly more eventful as having hit his second shot on the par five 18th in to the hazard he was fortunate to find the ball and avoid a penalty before holing from six feet to salvage an important par.
Two in-form players then at the top of the pile, however there is no escaping the fact that the most recent individual win from either was back in 2013 and when you add that to the fact that English has only held the 54-hole lead once on tour, failing to convert, and Palmer’s record is one win from four, it is hard to be overly confident about either’s chances.
Granted English did taste success the last time he played, in the end-of-year QBE Shootout alongside Matt Kuchar, but this is an altogether different kettle of fish and he makes little appeal at 9/4.
Having decided we are taking on the front two the most obvious candidate to do this with is COLLIN MORIKAWA, who sits in third place on his own, one shot off the pace.
The reigning PGA champion will undoubtedly be a lot of people’s choice going in to Sunday and I find him very hard to get away from.
Since his major championship success, Morikawa has gone off the boil by the standards we have come to expect however he has started the year looking refreshed and after a ho-hum opening 69 on Thursday has posted back to back 65s, making only one bogey across the last two days.
First so far in strokes-gained: tee-to-green (seven of the last 10 winners led that category for the week) and third in strokes-gained: approach, it is the his trademark long-game that has got the job done so far, and if he can hole his share of putts on Sunday then he'll likely prove the man they all have to beat.
Although born and raised in California, Morikawa has close family ties to the local Lahaina area near to Kapalua through his fraternal grandparents and he actually first got a chance to play the course when he was just nine years old, so a win here would be extra special for him.
Seventh on debut last year and with three wins on tour already, Morikawa looks the man to beat to me and I am happy to side with him at a general 11/4 given those doubts surrounding the top two on the leaderboard.
With the wind not playing any real part this week scoring has been low and with more of the same expected on Sunday there's a chance anyone from 16-under or better can put together a low final-round to pinch the trophy.
From that point of view defending champion Justin Thomas, who sits four back, could certainly be a factor as could his playing partner for the day Sungjae Im, who starts on the same score.
However if you are looking at taking bigger odds on the likes of Thomas, Im or Patrick Cantlay, who sits a further shot back on 16-under and has previous when it comes to come-from-behind wins, it is worth noting that only once in the past 10 years has a player won this from more than two shots back going in to Sunday and that was Xander Schauffele, who started five back in 2019 and in fourth place. Seven of the last 10 winners were sat either first or second going in to Sunday.
Considering this if you are looking for tastier odds then Daniel Berger makes more appeal than those further down the board and with him and Morikawa having history at the Charles Schwab Challenge last June, where Morikawa missed a short putt in a play off to gift Berger the trophy, we will perhaps be treated to another duel between them come the back-nine.
Morikawa looks in the groove though and a fourth PGA Tour title just 18 months into life as a professional looks within his grasp.
Published at 1012 GMT on 10/01/21
