Golf betting tips: Kenya Open final round
1pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi w/o Harding, Veerman, Kitayama at 12/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Garrick Higgo w/o Harding, Veerman, Kitayama at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Niklas Lemke to finish in the top-10 at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
Although just a second year into its European Tour career, the Magical Kenya Open is displaying the same traits that it did as a Challenge Tour event for close to two decades.
Repeat form has been prevalent throughout the week and, as we go into, Sunday, the likes of defending champion GUIDO MIGLIOZZI,
runner-up Louis de Jager, plus Garrick Higgo and Romain Langasque have all performed, while much of the leaderboard from South African events, Qatar, Valderrama and associated 'classic' tree-lined tracks sit inside the current top 30 or so.
Tree-lined and with grainy greens, the course can get difficult if you are wayward but under calm conditions and with the ball travelling miles at altitude in Nairobi, there are opportunities to score. That's particularly true from the sixth to the 12th, a run of three par-fives and a couple of short par-fours, as Scott Hend showed today with an eagle at the sixth before he drove it to eight feet to set up a putt for another at the seventh.
With 42 eagles so far from just these seven holes, this is potentially where the event is won and lost and anyone making hay here will probably get away with playing safer down the tough stretch.
Justin Harding is now the main, possibly sole, candidate for a South African winner this week and anyone taking the loose advice offered in Ben Coley's column will be pretty pleased with themselves having secured 9/2 about a 6/4 chance.
Currently lying second in strokes-gained tee-to-green, a stat that had huge prominence through the 2019 top-10, the experienced eight-time winner also leads the eagles, birdies, par-four and par-five figures, something that will get it done in the vast majority of events, if not all.
Crucially that isn't based just on what was a fairly impressive third-round 64, a single bogey on the hardest hole on the course spoiling a delightful card. Throughout the week Harding has known what to do here to score and, as befits a player with form figures of 18th before a flying runner-up around Karen, he has every confidence he can play the course to his advantage.
Birdie at the last for 64 ✍️
— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) March 20, 2021
A good days work for @JustinHarding60. #MagicalKenyaOpen | @Workday pic.twitter.com/UlCHmGfxfu
His play through those 'gettable' holes mentioned earlier has been top grade, including a pair of eagle-twos, and as he said himself it's during this stretch that you have to capitalise on opportunities. Having won eight from 12 when in front through 54 holes, albeit always at a lower level, he is extremely tempting at around the 11/8 mark to convert and is the man to beat.
It's very difficult to split many of those behind.
Johannes Veerman, one of Ben's pre-event selections at 40/1, continues to impress on the European Tour and with form at all the relevant places, is surely not far away from his first victory. The American has a few years on the current leader and, naturally, impressed with Saturday's course-record 62, sitting nicely with his effort here in 2019, when coming out of the clouds after an opening 77 to finish 17th.
Far more aggressive than Harding, it remains to be seen how that style compares with the more steady leader, but he too has a couple of eagles through that purple patch of holes and just pips the same player for top spot in tee-to-green performance. Purely at the prices, Harding looks more tempting but given we are here at Karen next week (Tuesday start) all this quality play is noted.
Currently tied second with Veerman, both compatriot Kurt Kitayama and Scott Hend have shown plenty on their first visit here and whilst the wizened Aussie has to be respected given a fantastic attitude on the course and a love of tree-lined tracks - the Maybank win in 2019 catching the eye (Veerman fourth) - it's hard to see him holding off not only younger, improving players but those with anything like recent form - he hasn't shown a thing in eight events since Wentworth.
Kitayama is a whole lot different. On a great run of form, a 12th at Saudi followed by a should-have-been better top-10 at Qatar, he is yet another to show stunning figures from tee-to-green, in fact the top four on the leaderboard are the top four in the long-game stats.
A winner at Oman a couple of years ago, having previously beaten Harding to win in Mauritius, he looks easily the main danger to the favourite but is priced about right with the books, though a tad bigger on the exchange. Players there should certainly see some volatile action providing the Tour can sort out live coverage in time.
Justin Harding leads by two in Kenya. #MagicalKenyaOpen
— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) March 20, 2021
It will be tough for anyone outside these four to win, but having seen Antione Rozner and Migliozzi charge into the top two last week, it isn't impossible of course. I just felt that the top of this board is far more reliable and we might be tilting at windmills trying to get a priced one home, especially given the each-way is just three places.
Further down the board, it was tempting to give Joburg victor J.B. Hansen a go somehow but maybe there is time to be with him in a couple of days' time. Likewise, eyes will be on the likes of improvers Lars van Meijel (going well until a mid-round double-bogey) and Jayden Schaper, another young South African whippersnapper, for future events.
The main reason that the current leader isn't put up is that Sky Bet are offering prices without the 'big three' of he, Veerman and Kitayama and there are a couple of wagers there that catch the eye to pass Hend and prove best of the rest.
MIGLIOZZI looked like a typical defending champion on day one - it was all 'too much' - especially after such a valiant effort in Qatar, but he's played well since despite dropping a couple of shots down the stretch in round three.
Second in the strokes-gained-off-the-tee stats thus far, he has plenty of chances to score and we know his putter is in form and that he can do it on this course. He looks too far away to nab the magnificent trophy once again but with Hend, Callum Hill and Jean-Baptiste Gonnet looking vulnerable, he should give a great run to get that 'without' win at a nice price.
Three years younger, GARRICK HIGGO is yet another South African youngster of real note.
Winner of the Portugal Open and impressing with a 65 from the front, his home Tour Championship victory saw him see off the likes of George Coetzee, Haydn Porteous and Brandon Stone with another solid final round. Take even his runner-up at Cape Town, behind Anton Karlsson - a player that does little but turns up in Qatar and Kenya - or that warm-up top-20 last time at Qatar, when blown off-course on the third day, and we have a player made for this course.
Indeed, this track hosted the Karen Masters on the Sunshine Tour last year, at which Higgo held every chance of finishing better than the eventual fifth at a very early stage in his career. Like the Italian star, neither of these players will be expecting to win from six back but they may be able to nab third or fourth for the bet to cop and splitting stakes on the two makes plenty of appeal.
Finally, there are lots of candidates for an off-the-pace top-10 but one player has a knack of closing.
It may be quite an ask from so far back in a share of 28th, but NIKLAS LEMKE has been impressing for a good period and while he hasn't caught fire so far this week he has enough in his armoury to give a good run at a big price.
Finishes of 9-11-8 through Joburg, Dubai and Qatar, after a break, read very nicely in terms of both recent and correlating form, but it is his charges on a Sunday that further boost his profile.
Last time here, in 2019, the Swede came from 39th to 12th - just a shot off a top-10 - after a best-of-the-day 64, while in recent times he has recorded his best end-of-round positions at the Alfred Dunhill, Victoria Open, and twice at Qatar, that ninth-place preceded by a burst from 21st to third in Harding's victory.
He is currently three off a payout but any of those final rounds would see him go very close and at 7/1 he looks worth the chance.
Posted at 1430 GMT on 20/03/21
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