Jon Rahm is on the brink of becoming world number one - but can he be caught in the Memorial Tournament? Ian Richards previews the final round.
Recommended bets
1pt Henrik Norlander to win his two-ball at 13/8
1pt Patrick Reed to win his two-ball at 7/4
I am not sure if I am in the majority or the minority by saying it’s nice to actually see a tough golf course on the PGA Tour. I admit these players are good but with winning scores in the 20-under range, it can get a little boring to watch and as a betting proposition seeking out the player who has a good week with the putter can be nigh on impossible.
Great respect to Jack Nicklaus, who probably looked on in horror at the low scores last week and reacted accordingly. It really is quite incredible how Muirfield Village has been altered from one week to the next; not many courses can be transformed that way.
Three over par was the cutline this week, the highest all year on the PGA Tour and five shots more than last week. After three rounds, which is where we are now, 53 players were under par in the Workday Charity event - this week the number is 23 and I can only see it falling. The greens are already baked hard and fast, the wind is due to blow, and having seen the pin positions this morning it may be that just a handful of players end the tournament under-par.
In terms of what we've seen here in the past, we have to ignore last week's event, as Muirfield Village wasn’t its usual tough test. In the last 10 Memorials, all the winners were within four strokes of the lead at this stage, which effectively leaves us with just three probable winners - although five of the 10 did win from four behind which suggests we might have more drama in front of us than the market assumes.
Jon Rahm nevertheless looks almost unbeatable on paper - 56 players have held a four-shot lead in the last 25 years on the PGA Tour and 73.2% won. He will also feel very comfortable playing with Ryan Palmer, with whom he won the pairs event in New Orleans last year, although he does have the added pressure of reaching world number one, which he will do if victorious.
The two players closest to Rahm are both four back and both would need him to falter to have any sort of chance, but when you look at their pedigrees they are hardly bullet proof. Palmer hasn’t won an individual strokeplay event in over 10 years and we all know about Tony Finau’s win record. Without being harsh, Rahm really couldn't have asked for a better scenario here, and he could shoot something in the mid-70s and find that it is still enough.
If there was any crumb of comfort for those chasing then we can look at last years Players Championship, where he held a one-shot lead over Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood with only one other player within four strokes. Rahm shot a final-round 76 and dropped all the way down to 12th, and his sole subsequent lead at this level saw him passed by Marc Leishman at Torrey Pines earlier this year.
I do think the only player likely to get past Rahm if he does falter is Danny Willett, who sits in solo fourth and six shots back. In theory he is too far adrift but Rahm does have the extra pressure today of reaching number one in the world and a final round like that at Sawgrass could open the door.
When Willett won the Masters in 2016 he was in fifth place and three shots back, but went on to win by three after Jordan Spieth blew up. He is a gritty, fiery player who won’t back down given a chance and is worth a small play in the win-only market. It is also worth keeping on eye on his price for the Masters later this year as 125/1 quotes will be a thing of the past with a strong final round, while those who want to side with him without taking on Rahm have the 'without the favourite' market, in which he's a solid-looking 7/1 chance.
Jason Day looks like he could be stretchered off the course at any minute, though to be honest we have seen that many times before. If his back really is that bad and he is trying to protect it I would really want to be opposing him today. In his final round two-ball he is up against Henrik Norlander and I can see the accurate Swede hanging around the top of the leaderboard.
He has already played well enough to secure his playing rights, which would have been the target for the year, and is a likely outsider to beat his better known playing partner today. At the odds, he is worth a small bet to do so.
Looking at the earlier pairings I can only think Justin Thomas will be keen to get out of here after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory last week. He opened with a 74 on Thursday but did fight back with a 67, however yesterday resulted in a disappointing 75 and he came home in 40.
He plays alongside Patrick Reed today, who has already beaten him by three and five strokes in two rounds this week. Reed is one of those players that will always fight to improve his position no matter where he sits entering the final round. As with Norlander he is the outsider of the pair but I can see him shooting lower than Thomas, who probably wants a rest and could be without his regular caddie.
Posted at 1045 BST on 19/07/20
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