Martin Mathews previews the Sunday action at the Memorial Tournament and he's backing Collin Morikawa to take advantage of Jon Rahm's misfortune.
Golf betting tips: Memorial Tournament
2pts win Collin Morikawa to win Memorial Tournament at 11/8 (General)
2pts Branden Grace to beat Scottie Scheffler in two-ball at 13/8 (Betfred)
At just gone 6.15pm local time on Saturday Jon Rahm watched a more than makeable birdie putt slip by on the 18th green at Muirfield Village, which had it dropped would have given him a third round of 63 and a seven shot lead going in to Sunday in his quest for back to back Memorial titles.
Still, no big deal, his lead would be six and he headed off the 18th knowing that, on top of his game, he had produced a flawless display, which would go down as one of the best rounds posted on tour this season.
What followed next though was surreal viewing. As he walked off 18 the Spaniard was greeted by two officials who gave some news to him, which literally brought him to his knees, and moments later the official news broke, Rahm had tested positive for Covid-19 and would have to withdraw from the tournament.
It goes without saying this is a really tough blow for Rahm, but to his credit he issued a positive statement later stating “how we respond to a setback defines us” and most importantly confirming that he and his family are all OK.
So with Rahm now out of the tournament and entering a period of self-isolation that will take him in to the beginning of US Open week, we suddenly have a golf tournament on our hands with COLLIN MORIKAWA and Patrick Cantlay tied for the lead heading into Sunday on 12-under par, three clear of the pair of Branden Grace and Scottie Scheffler who sit tied for third on 9-under.
When added to Rahm, the most obvious thing to note about Cantlay and Morikawa is that between them they make up the last three winners at Muirfield Village, Cantlay and Rahm hoisting the Memorial Trophy and Morikawa landing the ‘one off’ Workday event last year, meaning that for all the talk of the whole sale changes made to the track since last summer potentially throwing players a curveball, those who were comfortable here before very much remain so.
With 4” rough in play the key to success this week has undoubtedly been to stay on the short stuff off the tee and with Morikawa and Cantlay sitting first and second in strokes-gained-tee-to-green they have both clearly excelled in this department.
Looking at the duo’s 54-hole leader record, surprisingly Cantlay has only held the lead or a share of it once in his time on tour to date, at last year's Shriners, where he played very poorly on Sunday and failed to convert, whilst Morikawa has converted on one of three occasions, on his most recent opportunity at the WGC at Concession event earlier this year, where in doing so he notched his third win on a Nicklaus design.
Not unsurprisingly, the layers are finding it tough to split the pair with 11/8 available on them both, however in my book I would be giving marginal favouritism to Morikawa.
In a shorter time on tour he has shown himself as a more ruthless closer than Cantlay notching four titles to his fellow Californian's three and he has the recent positive experience of closing from the front, something that Cantlay is yet to do. Morikawa should also be buoyed by the hugely impressive way he bounced back on Saturday from a triple bogey at the 12th on Friday just before play was suspended for the day.
Finally, while Cantlay has undoubtedly been impressive from tee to green this week he has been the slightly more wayward of the tee ranking 33rd in accuracy compared to Morikawa’s fourth and has therefore had to rely a fraction more on the putter, ranking eighth in this department while Morikawa ranks 28th on the greens. As we know though it is always tougher to hole them when it matters on a Sunday and if Cantlay slips slightly in this area he could struggle.
With all the above in mind then I give the edge to Morikawa and I am happy to row in at the 11/8.
While I have been focusing on the front two in an event that has seen five of the past ten winners come from three or four back on a Sunday we should not be seeing this completely as a two-horse race and of the pair who enter Sunday three shots back, and three clear of the next best on 6-under, I will confess to having been tempted by Branden Grace as opposed to the maiden Scheffler at shorter odds.
The South African was forced to withdraw from last summers Barracuda Championship when sat in a tie for second at the halfway stage after testing positive for Covid so he may just be the one of the four in with a realistic chance who is the most pragmatic about Rahm’s withdrawal, and with his putter co-operating this week and with a win under his belt already this season he could just be able to seize the opportunity. In the end though my hunch is that Morikawa will just be too solid and a score of 70 or better will make it really tough for the pair on 9-under.
Instead then I will side with GRACE in his two-ball over Scheffler, which tees off at 1.30pm local time.
While it is a concern Grace struggled on Sunday at Kiawah Island a fortnight ago he is a proven multiple winner, whilst Scheffler is yet to get off the mark and with the Texan still potentially having the taste of a double-bogey in his mouth on the 16th on Saturday he may just have had the wind knocked slightly out of his sails.
In my mind I would be pricing this up as a ‘toss of a coin’ with my hunch being that Grace will perform better and therefore the 13/8 or general 6/4 on Grace to get the better of this tussle is well worth taking.
Published at 1000 BST on 06/06/21
