Golf betting tips: Members Extra
1pt e.w. Daniel Brown to be the top English player at 11/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Matthew Baldwin to be the top English player at 11/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Sky Bet odds
All eyes are on The PLAYERS Championship this week and rightly so, but I've a real soft spot for the Kenya Open and it's a fun betting heat this year.
In some ways I preferred it when they were at Karen, because there's a strong angle into that event through powerful drivers, but Muthaiga offers similar opportunities in a different way. It's tight, fiddly, and will frustrate a lot of players.
Scouring the sub-markets, it struck me that the betting for the top Englishman features a lot of those players who might find that this course suffocates them in a way that Karen wouldn't have.
Matthew Jordan for example drives it longer than you'd think but can be wild with it, and he was 71st of 75 players here last year. Laurie Canter's driver helped establish him at this level but he arrives on the back of a poor start to 2023, and with his future uncertain.
Garrick Porteous withdrew last time, Todd Clements is relying on his putter, Ashley Chesters has been so-so on the Challenge Tour and poor here in the past, and Andrew Wilson is another whose driver is probably his best club albeit he does putt well.
In amongst this lot are DANIEL BROWN and MATTHEW BALDWIN, two players far better suited to the layout, and backing both each-way will get 80% of our total stake back should either man place.
Both should be aiming higher than that and Brown especially looks like he's an interesting outsider here, having made all six cuts in his rookie season and demonstrated a quality short-game, the like of which Ashun Wu put to use in winning 12 months ago.
Brown's finishing positions in this market read 9-1-5-8-10-5, which are solid enough as it is. The win came at Blair Atholl, at altitude, in Africa, and where last year's Kenya Open runner-up, Thriston Lawrence, won the title.
Whether that's a good guide or not, now look at Brown's finishing positions among these Englishman, with the likes of Ross Fisher, Dale Whitnell, Daniel Gavins and plenty more absent from this week's field. His form reads 3-1-2-3-2-1.
Combine that with the fact Muthaiga might suit more than any course he's encountered so far I'm very hopeful.
Baldwin meanwhile has been there and done it at this course, finishing ninth and 28th on the Challenge Tour. He's about as accurate as they come and that was on display last time out in India, when he finished a shot behind Andrew Wilson and Alex Fitzpatrick.
Among those in this field, only Jordan beat him as Al Hamra, a course where Baldwin's lack of power is a problem. Despite that he'd been two ahead of Jordan with a couple to play, while at Leopard Creek it was only Canter and Brown who finished ahead of him, again at a long course.
Here at Muthaiga he'll be in his element and that's simply not the case with many of the 20 players who make up this market. With four places on offer, taking two comes with a nice safety net and makes plenty of appeal.
Note that at the time of writing, bet365 offer 14/1 for each of them. However, they're yet to remove Johnston following his withdrawal earlier today and I've therefore advised with firms whose markets are up-to-date.
Posted at 1655 GMT on 07/03/23
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