Golf betting tips: Porsche European Open
2pts e.w. Edoardo Molinari at 11/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w Paul Casey at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
2pts top-10 finish Sean Crocker at 3/1 (General)
2pts top-10 finish Connor Syme at 5/1 (General)
As play was suspended halfway through Saturday's first round, only three holes were playing under-par at the brutal Green Eagle course.
Even then, of the five par-fives, only one was recording a 'green' figure, and that just 0.03 of a shot below it's rating. Tougher still as the round finished with none of the longer holes playing below, and only the par-four seventh playing marginally below par. It's not the easiest of watches, and nowhere near the thrill of the equally tough (for different reasons) Valderrama, but it is certainly a change from recent courses.
Early starters Thomas Detry and Alexander Bjork both went ballistic during the second half of their first rounds - Detry going into his 10th (the first hole) two-over, before seven birdies helped him to four-under, whilst the Swede, going off ten minutes prior, had four unanswered birdies to turn a negative position into very much a positive one. The course bit back today though and both have moved away from the lead, though ironically, in a better position given the propensity to stall in front.
Huge it may be, but that isn't always a sign the bombers will benefit.
Given the par-fives are measuring around 600-yards (with the 16th more a par-six at 700), it isn't that surprising to see quality iron players rather than sluggers right there. Take away Casey, one of a very few who had an eagle putt today, and they are all playing a third shot approach from 90 to 140 yards, negating any advantage off the tee. With the long holes giving up 60 double-bogeys and worse over the first couple of rounds, I'd favour those pin-point irons over brute strength, especially on receptive greens.
Ante-post jolly PAUL CASEY looked out of sorts on day one, unusually ranking outside the top 100 for approach and putting, but was in complete control today, threatening to do much better than the eventual three-under 69. Defending is rarely easy but with Abrham Ancer missing the cut, he is by far and away the class act in the top 20 or so and after a final round 66 in 2019, he does look a touch value at around 33-1 for a payout in the top four, though that 80-1 available before the 17th today would have been lovely.
Whilst the last four winners have been in the final couple of groups at halfway and after their third rounds, and given history is rarely bunkum when it comes to this sort of thing, backing any of the European Tour maidens is unappealing.
Maverick Antcliff has been threatening to win for a considerable period having come off the China Tour with a trio of wins, and his approach play has consistently been in the top ten percent of events, ranking highly in greens-in-regulation, approach shots and tee-to-green. It is of more interest that he finished well to grab third in the Irish Open, played in difficult conditions and contested by two of the straightest hitters on the tour, but it will be a long time before I can back him at sub 5-1 on a congested board.
The victory of Richard Bland at The Belfry on his 500-and-somethingth event may inspire long-term Euro maidens Matthew Southgate and David Law (I'm not counting the victory in Australia) but neither can be trusted to get it done at the prices but, as a note, both fit in with many of the top lot as link lovers.
Like many of these, comeback player EDOARDO MOLINARI has been putting up some impressive accuracy and approach figures - top-20 in everything bar the putter - and whilst letting punters down in Denmark after a chance to win at The Belfry, he returned to top form today with a best-of-the-day 65, finding every green in regulation from every fairway!
Whilst the old cliche suggests it's tough to back up a low round, the older Molinari is another (like the two mentioned previously) with form in Scotland - this time wins at Gleneagles and Loch Lomond, the former courtesy of birdies at all the final three holes. Younger sibling Frani has come back from the depths after a successful spell and Dodo certainly looks to be doing the same, relishing the emphasis on quality iron play. Convinced he contends soon, he may take encouragement from his third place in Munich in 2019, his best result of that year, and he will be the main bet at just a shot away from the lead, and amongst a handful of question marks.
Followers of Ben Coley's preview column will be looking at their phones during tomorrow's afternoon tea-break as both Tapio Pulkkanen and Laurie Canter sit just four shots off what could be a dodgy lead. Nobody from level-par is ruled out but we have learned that the Englishman will need to be delivered on the line and this is a mentally tough gig, though anyone that can name the top seven by close of play needs a gig as a medium.
I'll close with a couple of top-10 wagers in SEAN CROCKER and CONNOOR SYME, two players that consistently give themselves chances on the greens.
The 24-year-old American has best form at the tricky Leopard Creek and, like Molinari, in Morocco, but whilst he does himself no favours on the greens, is leading the par-five scoring this week, something that has to eventually count for something and, for whatever reason, has plenty of Asian form alongside the current joint leader. Scotland, links and Asia - you work it out.
Syme, yet another Scot in the top echelons, seems to falter on one hole when he hits the front but he is only required to show on the front page tomorrow. Having improved his tee-to-green game by 60 places today, he is back to the top ranking he has shown through most of the last year. 22nd here when a rookie, he has recorded final rounds of 64, 68 and 66 in his last three completed events and is expected to beat field average on Monday and rise up the leaderboard.
Posted at 2015 BST on 06/06/21
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