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Matt Fitzpatrick shows off the European Masters trophy

Majors 2018: Ben Coley's ante-post betting preview

Golf

Fri December 29, 2017 · 7y ago

As we near the end of a hugely profitable 2017, golf expert Ben Coley looks at the 2018 majors with Matt Fitzpatrick worth a bet for the US PGA.

The Masters

When: April 5-8
Where: Augusta National, Georgia

The Masters Tournament should in theory be the easiest of the four majors to assess.

Unlike the others, we know exactly what we're getting with Augusta National and only biblical storms can affect how the course plays, given that it boasts a state-of-the-art sub-air system which protects green speeds, and that any suggestion of serious overhaul to the layout would be sacrilege.

There are years' worth of leaderboards, stats and trends to digest and the winner is usually fairly obvious. Even Sergio Garcia, no fan of the layout previously, ticked most of the boxes: he had the experience, the sub-70 rounds, the win earlier in the season, and so on.

Yet all of these factors are also apparent to the layers, who focus on the Masters more than the other three majors at this stage. Some have three players trading at single-figure prices; none appear to have made a serious mistake.

Sergio Garcia wins the Masters

As such my advice right now is to abstain, but there are some options for those looking for the first leg of a yankee and one is Brooks Koepka.

The 27-year-old has a phenomenal record in majors, having made 15 cuts in a row dating back to 2013. Last season he bagged four top-20 finishes including a win in the US Open at Erin Hills and his worst result in three majors played in 2016 was a tie for 21st.

Given that he ends 2017 in rude health, having contending for the WGC-HSBC Champions before defending his title in the Dunlop Phoenix, where he demolished and demoralised Hideki Matsuyama, 40/1 looks more than fair ahead of his fourth start at Augusta.

Koepka's course form figures are progressive (33-21-11) and having signed off with a round of 69 last April, there's no reason he can't take a further step up and bag at least a place in an event where his power is an enormous weapon.

It's only the strength of those ahead of him which talks me out of a decent each-way bet at this stage, but for the opening leg of a small-stakes multiple the price looks more than fair.

At 150/1 in places, Charley Hoffman also catches the eye - especially so given that he's no bigger than 125/1 for the US Open and shorter still for the US PGA.

Last year's first-round leader, who extended away in the second round before coming unstuck, Hoffman has performed well on all four visits to Augusta National and it's this major he appears most likely to win.

He made the cut in all four of them last year, bagging a top-10 behind Koepka at Erin Hills, and while he'll be 41 come April, age hasn't necessarily been a barrier in the Masters.

Much more relevant is the value of experience and Hoffman has shown no signs of slowing down; quite the opposite, he might just be improving still. All that said, unless he wins - and Hoffman isn't prolific - this price will likely still be available come the spring.

A final one to mention is Bryson DeChambeau, who showed an immediate liking for the layout when contending here as an amateur two years ago and has made fairly rapid progress since turning professional.

The so-called Golfing Scientist played consistently well towards the end of 2017 and if he can just find a putting stroke which he can rely on, his potential remains enormous. It would be no surprise whatsoever were he to again feature on the leaderboard here and three-figure prices are interesting.

US Open

When: June 14-17
Where: Shinnecock Hills, New York

Could this be the year that Phil Mickelson completes the career grand slam with victory in the US Open?

Don't rule it out. The return to Shinnecock Hills, where he finished second to Retief Goosen in 2004, is a definite positive given that Mickelson is almost always a factor in the northeastern states, where he is a hugely popular figure among the boisterous crowds.

Mickelson's short game remains his biggest weapon and given the glass-like nature of the greens here 13 years ago, and the likelihood that the USGA seek a return to more traditional US Open conditions despite the exposed nature of the layout, this five-time runner-up could finally land the win he so desperately seeks having skipped the event in 2017.

That said, at a best of 66/1 - odds available with just one firm - he doesn't make a great deal of appeal on value grounds at this stage and a better bet may be 80/1 chance Patrick Reed.

The Texan has lost some of that aura he established when racking up four wins in 18 months a couple of years ago, but looked to be on the way back throughout 2017 and did secure his standout major finish, tied second in the US PGA.

He's won The Barclays at Bethpage - another championship test in New York - and has a solid enough US Open record to think that the price represents fair value, particularly as he looks like winning again before June.

Shinnecock Hills: Hosts the 2018 US Open

Reed has won twice in January and once in March, and should he arrive at Shinnecock having failed to add to his tally it's unlikely he'll start much bigger than 80/1 anyway. Layers won't want to take too much of a chance about a player with a strong reputation when it comes to closing.

The 2004 US Open was among other things a test of scrambling, Goosen ranking first and Mickelson second, and it's tempting to add short-game maestro Matt Kuchar as a result.

Also 80/1, his performances at the 2017 majors - three top-10 finishes, including that heartbreaking second at the Open - highlight a player who is more than capable of competing at this level, and one who showed genuine tenacity when many expected him to falter at Royal Birkdale.

He's winless since 2014 which is a concern, but Kuchar - another former winner of The Barclays, this time in New Jersey - has the right game to grind his way to a another big week under the radar.

The downside is he's yet to finish better than tied sixth in this major, despite making all eight cuts as a professional, and there's every chance he's no shorter in the betting come June. For that reason he's reluctantly left alone for now but if Kuchar does look like winning an event over the coming months, it's the US Open which might merit an antepost interest.

Finally, a word for Matthew Fitzpatrick, who could well be suited to the challenge of finding fairways and adjusting to treacherous greens.

He won the US Amateur in Massachusetts and is a player who will be contending for majors on a consistent basis in the coming years. However, as revealed later in the piece, patience may be the best policy.

The Open Championship

When: July 19-22
Where: Carnoustie, Angus

After Branden Grace carded the first round of 62 in men's major golf history at Royal Birkdale, it's appropriate perhaps that Carnoustie will host the 2018 renewal. Considered to be the meanest layout on the rotation, it was here that Paul Lawrie won in six-over, a post-WWII high, and it's bordering on unthinkable that the current run of double-digits under-par winning totals in the oldest major of them all will be extended to five.

It's true that Yani Tseng did shoot 16-under to win the Ricoh Women's British Open here and as recently as 2016, Paul Broadhurst managed to scrape to 11-under as he bravely took the seniors' equivalent, but providing there's some semblance of a breeze in Angus this will be a severe test. Padraig Harrington's seven-under winning total when last the Claret Jug came here, over a decade ago, seems a decent benchmark.

Jordan Spieth will be defending his title and deserves his position as favourite. That being said, at 12/1 with just one firm and 9/1 in a place, Spieth is shorter than he was (16/1) before winning last summer and can be left alone for now despite his obvious credentials. Remember, he arrived in Liverpool having won on his previous PGA Tour start yet was still not considered worthy of outright favouritism, and he'll have to be in the form of his life for the general 10/1 now available to look like a steal.

Of the obvious contenders towards the front of the market, it's Justin Thomas whose price feels most out of line.

Considering that he's won six times in fewer than 30 starts dating back to late-2016, a sequence which includes his first major title in the US PGA, contending for the US Open, and seven further top-10s elsewhere, 33/1 must surely be on the generous side. We're talking about a world-class player of Spieth calibre and it seems that he's being underestimated owing to his youth and some vague notion that players like him don't win the Open at Carnoustie.

Perhaps that's true, but Thomas won the PGA Championship in eight-under and went on to add the CJ Cup in blustery conditions when shooting nine-under. Yes, his first four PGA Tour titles came under lights-out scoring conditions but he's maturing fast and flaws in his game are disappearing. His short game in particular looks ready for this challenge and the quality of his approach shots bodes well when it comes to staying out of trouble.

Granted, Thomas shot 81 in the second round of the 2017 Open, which rates a concern. But he was in poor form at the time, the third of three missed cuts in succession, and has since graduated to elite level courtesy of that major victory plus his FedEx Cup success. I'd rather take a positive view of his opening 68 before the wheels well and truly came off with a nine at the sixth hole on Friday.

I certainly cannot see why he would be bigger that the superb Jon Rahm, even by a small margin, or Rickie Fowler, or Hideki Matsuyama. Thomas's chance is comparable to that of Rory McIlroy, who is 14/1, and with the prospect of him winning a couple more titles in the intervening months, the 33/1 on offer has to be taken now.

The Open returns to Carnoustie

The other players I like the look of at best prices are Grace and Tommy Fleetwood, and we'll start with the South African.

Last summer, Grace went off a 50/1 shot for the Open. He did not arrive in particularly eye-catching form - indeed he hadn't registered a top-five finish all year - but punters understandably latched onto his excellent links record and proven ability to compete for majors, factors which were underlined as he carded that sensational round of 62 before understandably running out of steam in the final round, finishing tied for sixth.

Having won the biggest title of his career since, the Nedbank Golf Challenge, Grace looks primed to contend for majors once more in 2018 and the self-proclaimed grinder will absolutely relish the challenge of Carnoustie, where he's broken par on several occasions in the admittedly calmer waters of the Dunhill Links.

Available at 66/1 currently, there seems little downside in backing Grace now given that victory at Sun City could well act as a springboard for further success in the early months of 2018. The last time a home player won 'Africa's major', that man went onto win a genuine one the following year and a repeat is perfectly plausible. Even the general 50s appears a decent bet.

As for Fleetwood, I had initially written about my amazement that William Hill made him a 100/1 chance. Alas, it was an Oddschecker error; they make him 25/1, which is amazing in a different way. The general 50s seems about right to me.

US PGA

When: August 9-12
Where: Bellerive Country Club

Bellerive Country Club hosts the US PGA, a decade on from Camilo Villegas' win there in the BMW Championship and five years since Koki Idoki landed the Senior PGA Championship.

Villegas shot 15-under in an event which, despite his wayward tendencies, tended to favour accurate types: Tim Clark, Jim Furyk, Stephen Ames, KJ Choi and various other fairway-finders finished inside the top 10. But while it remains to be seen how it will play in August 2018, at over 7,500 yards one would imagine that power will replace accuracy as a vital attribute on this classical par 71 in Missouri.

Once more there are no real surprises nor obvious opportunities at the front of the market, unless you are able to take the 33/1 one firm offer about Jason Day.

The Australian won this in 2015, might've won it again a year later, and has a good record on some of the other championship courses given the Robert Trent/Rees Jones treatment - Congressional, Torrey Pines, Firestone and Baltusrol in particular.

Some difficult personal circumstances meant for a quiet 2017, but by the end of it Day appeared ready to return to his best form and there are some very good events for him in the early part of the calendar, enough to think he might be a winner again come tee-off here in August.

As laughably short as 12/1 in places, William Hill's 33/1 is nevertheless on the generous side and has the potential to disappear fairly quickly.

A continuing theme in this event of late has been for first-time winners - in fact, every champion since 2009 not named Rory McIlroy has been breaking through at major level.

Should that continue, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama are the obvious options but at a massive 150/1, I would much rather take a chance on the improving Matthew Fitzpatrick.

So far his record in this event is poor, but he does have a top-10 finish at Augusta to his name in what's still a young career to show that he can compete in majors stateside.

I was particularly taken with the consistency Fitzpatrick found towards the end of 2017, the one quality which had previously been missing. We know winning isn't a problem - he's already among the toughest players in the world when it comes to Sundays - and while length is a potential stumbling block it really is the only weakness in his game now that he's producing week in, week out.

Fitzpatrick is closing in on a place at the top table, there's no doubt about that in my mind, so while there's little more to the case I simply don't believe he's a 150/1 chance to win a major like this one. He's priced alongside Bernd Wiesberger and Russell Henley; I'd have him up with Daniel Berger and Xander Schauffele in the 66/1 region, in the expectation that he's locked up a Ryder Cup return and probably another title or two by the time we reach the final major of 2017.

And while the US Open is tempting - backing him for both is worth considering - the lower scoring conditions of the final major, where lack of top-flight experience is less of a barrier, gets the vote.