In-form golf expert Ben Coley has five selections for the Made In Denmark, this week's sole European Tour event.
Recommended bets: Made In Denmark
Click here for our transparent tipping record
They say timing is everything and that can surely be the only reason the field for the fourth edition of the Made In Denmark is once again a little lacking when it comes to depth.
Going head-to-head with the first FedEx Cup event is a thankless task and organisers are at least fortunate that they've a truly world-class headline act as Thomas Pieters returns to defend the title he won so impressively a year ago.
Pieters was essentially set the task of winning this event to earn a Ryder Cup wildcard and the rest, as 'they' have also been known to say, is history. Not only did Pieters complete the job here at Himmerland, but he went on to be the top points scorer even if his Ryder Cup debut ultimately ended in defeat.
With the threat to his defence headed by a pair of Danes who are bound to feel the pressure of these wonderful crowds, Pieters' chance is smack-you-in-the-face obvious and while he's been winless in 2017, his best form remains clear of anything this lot have produced. There are worse 9/1 shots, that's for sure.
Defending a title is not easy - just ask Rory McIlroy, who is yet to do it - but even this is a minor negative at best. The one time Pieters tried, he lost by a shot and only because Paul Peterson made a 20-foot birdie on the final hole. This superbly cool character won't be put off by the odd extra interview nor, I expect, any pressure which is associated with being favourite.
Still, Pieters isn't yet on the short list of names I really want to be backing at this sort of price and he was poor at the PGA Championship last time, so Benjamin Hebert gets the headline vote at an altogether more generous 66/1.
This 30-year-old is finally showing that he's capable of establishing himself at this level, having previously looked like he might fall into that gap between Challenge and European Tour. He's won six times on the former and remains a maiden here, but he's keeping his card comfortably and, relatively speaking, knocking on the door.
Perhaps the knocks will get louder in Denmark, where he's twice been inside the top 15 from as many visits and closed 68-66 last year, not dissimilar to the way in which Pieters signed off in 2015 before returning to put four rounds together.
Hebert is among the most accurate operators on the European Tour and while Pieters' victory might lead you towards longer, more aggressive players, those in behind suggest that's a trap which should be avoided. He won because he's brilliant, not because he was especially suited to the course.
The likes of Bradley Dredge, David Lipsky, Adrian Otaegui, Soren Kjeldsen, Jaco Van Zyl and Joakim Lagergren all confirm that this is more about staying away from the kind of trouble which cost the latter all hope on the 72nd hole a year ago and Hebert is firmly in that mould.
It's also notable that Van Zyl and Lagergren were both involved in a play-off for the Qatar Masters earlier this year, and those leaderboards are worth studying if you're looking for Himmerland clues. Marc Warren, who won the inaugural edition of this event, boasts a fine record in Qatar and the same goes for most of those to have gone well here in Denmark.
Along with events like the Dunhill Links, where being comfortable in the wind is vital, that's the sort of direction I want to be heading in with selections and that's very much the basis of the case for Hebert. He's been inside the top-five at the Dunhill, and his last two visits to Qatar have resulted in shares of 10th and 20th, performances powered by accuracy from the tee.
With form under links conditions in Ireland, a good effort in Sweden's Nordea Masters and a win in Norway on the Challenge Tour, this just looks an ideal test for Hebert, who has ranked fifth and 14th for greens in regulation here to show that he knows his way around the course.
In terms of recent form, he produced a top-10 finish behind Jon Rahm in a very strong renewal of the Irish Open, before showing flashes of his best under pressure in Scotland one week later. His only subsequent start came in the European Open, where those with a little more power were certainly favoured, and he did just fine to again make the weekend.
Back under conditions which suit him more than most and in a field which is made up of a heck of a lot of out-of-form or just not European Tour standard golfers, he looks a knocking each-way bet at anything 50/1 and upwards.
I do expect we'll see a good champion here, as it takes a player in control of their game and their emotions to deal with some of the biggest crowds of the season. All three winners at Himmerland boast a touch of class and two of them, Warren and Pieters, arrived in superb form.
Unfortunately, none of the proven winners in this year's renewal appeal for various reasons - the pressure on Kjeldsen, who has flown in from a disappointing Sunday in the US; the form of Martin Kaymer, who is winless since 2014 - so I'm hoping we might see a classy maiden break through.
Top of the list in terms of likelihood is Paul Dunne, who is just about a big enough price at 33s.
The young Irishman clearly has the type of game for this, having burst on the scene at the Open Championship and also figured at the Dunhill Links later that year, before returning in 2016 to produce another big performance in Scotland.
He played really well here in Denmark, too, finishing tied 10th thanks to a controlled performance. Dunne ranked fifth for greens and second for scrambling but just wasn't able to make enough birdies to get close to Pieters, with conditions perhaps not quite as demanding as he needed them to be.
One year on, he's added an eye-catching T21 in Qatar to further boost his profile for this event while second in Morocco and 13th in France are two performances which underline that a breakthrough probably isn't all that far away. It may well be that he capitalises on the biggest names in European golf being over in the US for the time being.
Dunne was in-play favourite during the Paul Lawrie Match Play last week as he made 11 birdies across the first two rounds and stormed into the weekend. Then came a match he should've won, but Dunne at least went down fighting, canning a 35-foot bogey putt against Alejandro Canizares having called a penalty on himself in their play-off.
So fine are the margins that he might've been that penalty away from a breakthrough but the good news is he's fresh enough, certainly playing well enough, and now gets a rare opportunity to return to a course he not only knows, but has performed well on.
As one of the best putters on the circuit whose accurate game is suited to the challenge set by Himmerland, this might be the best chance Dunne has had so far in his fledgling career.
Before reminding myself of his poor record in the event, I was expecting to put up Andrew Johnston given that he should love the crowds, is theoretically well-suited to the type of golf required and has played well this summer. However, combine a shoulder injury which forced his withdrawal from the PGA Championship and five bad rounds from six here and it's easy enough to leave him out.
Rikard Karlberg and Richard Sterne rate fairly obvious options, while Aaron Rai has the quality to bring his Challenge Tour dominance to this level, but in the main players of his profile flirt with contention without going through with it over the weekend.
Instead, I'm drawn to another obvious player but one who remains a three-figure price in Tom Lewis.
The backstory of this talented youngster is pretty well-known, but here's a brief summary: burst on the scene in the Open, won on his third European Tour start as a professional, entered the abyss from which he's yet to fully return.
The win in Portugal was back in 2011 and it's been six hard years for Lewis, who has experimented with different coaches and everything else a player does when they're searching for something they've lost.
Over the last 18 months, however, things have started to look up. He's certainly hitting the ball really well again and while reports have it that his short game was the main cause of his problems, even on that score there has been some improvement.
Lewis now has five top-20 finishes for the season, which is the sum of 2015 and 2016 combined, and what's most encouraging about his prospects here is that, regardless of the state of his game, he's always played well at Himmerland.
Lewis has been 15th, 20th and 26th on his three starts in the Made In Denmark and co-owns the course record after a sensational opening 62 last year, which remarkably included three bogeys plus a par at one of the reachable par-fives as he flirted with the magic 59.
He looked in good form last week with six birdies to beat tournament favourite Richie Ramsay before some more excellent scoring helped him see off Zander Lombard, only for a disappointing back-nine to see him ousted by in-form local Alexander Knappe in round three.
Combine that performance with his top-25 greens-in-regulation and birdie average stats for the year, plus a top-three finish in the Dunhill Links and some encouraging rounds in Qatar, and Lewis looks worth chancing despite concerns as to what might happen when he does miss a green.
Laurie Canter brings a similar-ish profile to Denmark and it'll be interesting to see how this Bath pro goes after he took a heap of confidence from a strong finish to the Open Championship.
A straight driver of the ball at his best, Canter is worth considering and the same goes for South African duo Jbe Kruger and Jake Roos, who could rate value in the first-round leader market.
The latter shot 65 in the first round here last year and arrives on the back of three consecutive top-10 finishes in his native South Africa, where compatriot Kruger finally broke through for his first win on home soil earlier in the month.
Kruger played well here on his sole visit and is accurate despite an ugly swing, but I'd just be concerned about the lengthy trip from Fiji where he failed to get competitive in much weaker company. Still, he might have a low one in him on Thursday.
The search for a champion moves on to Matthew Southgate, another who took part in the Match Play.
Like Dunne, Southgate was among the favourites in Germany and made a bright start before losing in round two. On the face of it that was a disappointing effort but he cracked his driver on Thursday, borrowing one which was far too short for him as he managed to get by for a time.
I've not been able to confirm whether or not he got a new one set up for round two, but it's a potential excuse for his defeat to Johan Carlsson, who was better suited to the course anyway and went on to make the semi-finals to frank the form.
Significantly, this was also Southgate's first start since a top-10 finish in the Open Championship, one of the standout performances of an already incredible career which has seen him beat cancer to establish himself at this level.
And while he was a big price at Birkdale, his performance wasn't all that much of a surprise. He is, quite simply, a brilliant links golfer and though Himmerland is not a links course, many of the skills used in the Open are transferable. Southgate really should be comfortable here and for three of the four rounds on his course debut, he looked to be.
The 28-year-old has been sixth and second in two of his last three strokeplay starts, all in much better company, and looks value at 50/1 having been strong off the tee on his first visit to Himmerland. A repeat and he should be able to take advantage of the iron play which has powered another strong summer.
Finally, I'll be giving another chance to Chris Paisley, who was a shot away from landing a place payout and maybe more when put up at 150/1 for the Match Play.
I was really taken with how he twice fought back to advance through the first three rounds and losing to the eventual third was no disgrace. Paisley looked to be in really good nick, hitting the ball better as the week progressed, and the putter looked as sharp as ever.
He's yet to prove it, but I really think he's up to winning on the European Tour and Denmark looks a good fit, given that he's contended on three of his five starts in this part of the world including in this event two years ago, when he blew up on Sunday but still led the field in ball-striking.
Having been 12th in the Dunhill Links and grown up in the north of England, a cool breeze is of no concern whatsoever to this sweet-swinger who has also contended in Sweden, and more of the same from last week should see him outperform odds in the region of 200/1.
Posted at 2030 BST on 21/08/17.
