Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Honda Classic

Golf betting tips: Honda Classic

2pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ian Poulter at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. K.H. Lee at 80/1 (Betfred, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Patton Kizzire at 90/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Phil Mickelson at 90/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Luke Donald at 500/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds - eight places | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There are a number of factors which influence a player's schedule, with course quality and/or deemed suitability much further down the list than some would have you believe. Ultimately, the best in the sport map their seasons around majors and money, which might explain why the current world number one will end the year having won a title in Saudi Arabia, but opted not to travel to Japan for the Olympic Games.

All of this is of course a matter of prerogative, whether or not Dustin Johnson comes to regret missing out on the only chance he will ever have to take part in the Olympics in Tokyo City. Personally, I doubt it: don't forget that the next Games, now just three years away, is scheduled to take place in Paris. I reckon he might well be there, that's assuming golf is.

What exactly this has to do with the Honda Classic would be a fair question, but the point is this: we have an extraordinarily weak field, not because the course isn't very good or the location is unsuitable or anything like that, but because of the schedule and the purse. Something had to give, with two World Golf Championships and a March-from-May PLAYERS taking place before Augusta, and for now it is the Honda that takes the bullet.

As such, Sungjae Im and Daniel Berger are clear at the top of the market from Joaquin Niemann, these 20-somethings followed by a 40-something who could yet pull out. Lee Westwood made no mention of doing so following second place at Sawgrass, which was only his second event in succession, but did reveal he felt heavy-legged during the weekend and may prefer to rest. If he doesn't, winning here after back-to-back runner-up finishes appears a stretch.

Im and Berger, who between them have a win and a luckless play-off defeat here, have outstanding claims. The latter has won twice since June and four times in total, always on shorter, more technical courses, and he knows and loves this one like just about no other. A staying-on top-10 at Sawgrass primes him perfectly for it and I doubt anyone will feel as confident as he does come tee-off in one of Thursday's featured groups.

As for Im, he won for us here last year and played really well for three of the four rounds last week. The issue is those 18 holes over which he's gone missing in virtually every event so far in 2021, and how much of a concern that should be at the price. There are those sitting pretty on 33/1 antepost tickets — Sky Bet offered a 'defending champions' market back in January — but 12/1 is easy enough to pass up, even for those of us who've been loyal followers.

Part of the reason for that conclusion is the weather forecast. Always in Palm Beach Gardens, wind plays a part, and early indications are that this week could be brutal at times. The course, whose famous Bear Trap makes for a punishing and dramatic finish, is hard enough under calm conditions, which is why just one of the last 1200 or so participants has reached double-figures under-par. Should the wind really howl, things could get messy.

Who is the best bet for the Honda Classic?

With holes 15 and 17 both capable of ruining a player's tournament, let alone their round, and a weaker-than-usual field, in general the message is to be speculative rather than confident. That said, I can't resist putting up SHANE LOWRY for the second year running in an event which is set up perfectly for him.

• Click here to back Shane Lowry with Sky Bet

Lowry hasn't pressed on since winning the Open, at least not as he'd have liked, but the coronavirus-enforced pausing of the Ryder Cup points race could prove key. He now has a second bite of the cherry and after signs of promise in the Middle East to begin 2021, he put everything together to finish eighth at the PLAYERS Championship.

Most impressive about that performance was the fact that he gained strokes in every department, maintaining his strong level of play off the tee, marrying it this time with quality approach work, and again dazzling around the greens. Having changed putting grip to right-hand low it was also pleasing to see him putt well on three of the four days and I'm optimistic that he can build on his best performance in more than six months.

The fact that Lowry now goes to PGA National, just five minutes from his Florida home, means he has every chance to do so. In three visits to the course so far he's made all three cuts, improving his finishing position each time, and last year he entered the weekend right there in the mix having sat ninth at the halfway mark.

Twelve months and two weeks down the line, this time he arrives on a confidence-boosting top-10 finish in elite company, in which he saved his best ball-striking until Sunday and signed off with a birdie, before joining Lee Westwood for a Monday practice round with members at Augusta National.

Hopefully, some of Westwood's magic might rub off on his potential Ryder Cup teammate and Lowry will know he really does need to kick on if he's to achieve his number one goal and play for Padraig Harrington this September.

"I like the course at the Honda," he said on Sunday, but it's a line from Thursday which really underlines the case: "I watched a bit of the golf this morning and I could see how difficult it was playing, but that excites me. That kind of gets my juices flowing, and I like that type of golf."

Lowry will get the breezy, difficult test he so relishes and can capitalise on the weakest renewal of the Honda he's played in so far.

Russell Henley is a former champion here with an excellent record on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses in general (he redesigned this one 30 years ago), but his strength became a weakness at Sawgrass as he laboured to a disappointing missed cut. Excuses are wearing a little thin after a year of consistent promise and while I remain upbeat about his prospects going forward, taking fairly short prices has been a costly mistake in the recent past and he looks one to swerve.

Patience in IAN POULTER might not last much longer but having put him up in Puerto Rico and again at Bay Hill, I want to give him one more chance to prove that when his back is against the wall, he's capable of spectacular results.

• Click here to back Ian Poulter with Sky Bet

That's been the case throughout his fabled Ryder Cup career and, having fallen to 65th in the world following a lacklustre start to this Ryder Cup season, and with a place in the WGC Match Play both tantalisingly close and dangling by a thread, I don't think anyone should be surprised if he conjures something from deep within yet again.

It's not as if we've nothing tangible to go on, either. Poulter hit the ball really well for a top-20 finish in Saudi Arabia, played some solid enough golf in Puerto Rico and then drove it nicely for 26th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an event with similarities to this one except boasting a stronger field.

Last week's missed cut at Sawgrass was disappointing, but I can forgive him a messy opening 77 under what were very difficult conditions. Poulter at least bounced back from that with a second-round 71, improving in all areas, and if anything it should only serve to increase his determination.

Right now, his prospects of making the Ryder Cup appear to be dwindling, and he simply needs to get into the Match Play and win some matches to remind everyone what he can bring to the table for Europe. As of today, he occupies the very last qualification spot given we know Tiger Woods will be absent, and while other top-64 players will skip the event, a missed cut this week could cost him his place.

Close to home, at a course where he ought to have won in 2015 and where he finished 27th last year, with tough conditions in his favour and his sharp scrambling a massive asset, I'm prepared to give him one more chance.

Scrambling has been vital here, to the extent that nine of the last 10 winners ranked sixth or better for the week. Some of those we might have expected, others less so, but if there is a player you like who is among the best around at getting up and down, that's certainly in their favour.

Despite generally having been an excellent putter down the years, PATTON KIZZIRE's scrambling would actually be my biggest worry but he otherwise makes stacks of appeal and in fact goes down as the best value in the event as far as I'm concerned.

• Click here to back Patton Kizzire with Sky Bet

Right now, the languid southerner is in the midst of the most consistent run of form of his entire PGA Tour career, having made 12 cuts in succession since failing to at the Safeway Open, and this drop in grade could be enough to see him convert solid golf into something a good deal more spectacular.

We already know that Kizzire is at his best under coastal conditions like those we'll get this weekend, as his two wins have been in Hawaii and Mexico, while late last year he was bang in the mix for us at the RSM Classic. Also obvious is his preference for bermuda greens — he gains around 0.5 strokes per round versus an all-surface baseline of 0.3 — and while his form here is patchy, he did fire a second-round 64 on debut and has made three of five cuts.

For a player prone to shocking runs of form and whose ball-striking has at times been questionable, Kizzire's record at PGA National actually rates a positive and never has his long-game looked in better shape than it does now. In fact, having gained over four strokes with his approaches last week (first time since he finished sixth at the Travelers in June), it was only a fairly quiet week on the greens which kept him out of the top 20.

Granted a standard putting week and a continuation of his long-game numbers, which were good in his previous couple of starts, Kizzire has loads in his favour and I'd also point out that one of his two missed cuts here saw him grouped with Tiger Woods for the first and only time. Undoubtedly star-struck, I'm not surprised he struggled.

Three years on and, as he highlighted last week, Kizzire is in much better form.

"I try not to think about it, but I guess this is my 12th cut made in a row, which is pretty good," he said. "I've been playing consistently, which is nice. I feel like at some point it's all going to come together and I'll be in contention, and we'll see if I can get it done.

"I'm getting a little swagger back and seeing some good results and sticking to my process. I have a great team of Justin Parsons and Randy Myers. I've been working tirelessly with them. We're just trying to get better every day."

That's pretty much what he's been doing and any improvement from the PLAYERS can see him go very well.

At a similar price I'm also sweet on K.H. LEE, who came so close to winning the Phoenix Open at another course where water and risk-reward holes make for a dramatic and high-pressure finish.

• Click here to back K.H. Lee with Sky Bet

This improving Korean has seemingly gone off the boil since, his finishing positions reading 66-MC-41, but he hit it superbly throughout the PLAYERS and that suggests he might be ready to contend again at a course where his form figures read 7-38.

Last week he simply had a shocker around the greens, which is out of character — it's a department in which he's led the field twice already this year, and also been third and 11th. Indeed his final figure at Sawgrass was one of the worst of his career, and when he suffered as badly in another big event, the 2019 US Open, he improved by 12 shots the very next week.

Put another way, the thing which held him back is usually a strength and last week is likely an anomaly. Combine that with a strong record here, having flushed it for a top-10 on debut, and you have an interesting outsider. Throw in the fact his Nicklaus form includes a win in Japan and the time he stormed into a big lead at Muirfield Village, and he earns a place in the staking plan in the hope we get a third Korean winner here in 13 years.

One of the reasons this tournament is so fascinating to me is that there are many ways to do it. Length isn't a major advantage around a positional par 70, and the stats here aren't necessarily robust. One or two bad swings during the Bear Trap and some otherwise quality approach play can be made to look modest, and the only consistent feature in recent years from a strokes-gained perspective has been that average putting is just fine if you do the rest well.

Much of the evidence we have is more anecdotal, such as the fact that US Open winners and major champions in general have gone well here, including Geoff Ogilvy, Lucas Glover, Padraig Harrington, YE Yang and the more obvious ones like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia.

Patience, an ability and willingness to grind, possibly even a short memory are valuable assets and experience should be added to the list, too. Only two years ago, 56-year-old Vijay Singh was in contention yet again and Harrington was 43 when he put all his golf smarts to use to deny Berger in a play-off.

Can Mickelson find a return to form?

It's these factors which draw me towards names I'm not entirely comfortable selecting, but at the odds all concerns are taken on board. First, the most sensible of the two — which is saying something — as PHIL MICKELSON goes in at 90/1, anything upwards of 66/1 deemed acceptable.

• Click here to back Phil Mickelson with Sky Bet

Only last week, I was happy to take on Mickelson in the PLAYERS, where he's been abysmal in recent years. That tells you I've performed an about turn, but it's the fact he really did play quite well at Sawgrass which offers significant encouragement.

Bar a disaster at the 12th hole in round two, Mickelson produced some of his best golf since he contended for a WGC late last season, in itself a reminder that he's not done with at this level. Most impressively, he gained strokes with his irons across all four rounds at Sawgrass, ranking 14th, and his off-the-tee game was very good bar a couple of holes on Friday.

But for a quiet weekend with the putter, Mickelson might not have been far from the top 10 at a course which doesn't suit him, and his usually dynamite short-game also let him down when he needed it. Perhaps that's where we are now, and those hands have lost some of their magic, but I wouldn't be one to write him off just yet and any improvement in his work around the greens would make him a serious player here if he continues to hit it so well.

Mickelson has been a rare visitor to PGA National, but his three starts here all offer encouragement. He missed the cut narrowly in 2014, contended in 2015, and started well in 2016, and not always did he arrive on the back of golf of the standard he produced last week.

Could it be that falling out of the top 100 for the first time in more than 25 years, as he did before Sawgrass, lit the fire? Who can say, but in such a poor field, at a course where major champions who can operate in the breeze have always featured, he is surely worth a speculative bet.

Chance your Donald luck...

Finally, about as speculative as it gets from me with LUKE DONALD supported to minimum stakes.

• Click here to back Luke Donald with Sky Bet

I don't want to get carried away with the idea that he could take inspiration from Westwood, a fellow 40-something who used to be world number one, because Westwood won the Race to Dubai last year and has been operating at a high level for many months. Contending at Bay Hill and Sawgrass was impressive, but not surprising.

That said I do imagine some of his long-time Ryder Cup teammates will be perked up by seeing what he can do in a game dominated by youngsters, and while that alone isn't enough to support Donald, the more I looked the closer he appeared to some decent golf.

Although yet to make a cut this year, Donald has been two or three shots away in all three starts, shooting rounds of 69 in each of his last two appearances having began with 72-70 in the AmEx. Rewind to late-2020, and he shot 70-68 at the RSM to miss on the number, either side of which he was also fighting to make the weekend.

Before this he was sixth at halfway in the Bermuda Championship and opened up 69-66 in the Shriners, and through this run he's gained strokes with his approach shots in five of the six starts for which we have stats. As is often the case when a player is grinding so hard on their swing, Donald's putter has in fact been holding him back.

In an event where putting hasn't been at all important — just one of the last eight winners ranked better than 20th — and where experience and approach play might by contrast be vital, he becomes more interesting than your average 500/1 shot — especially so with the Westwood angle.

And then we arrive at the course, his record in Florida, and his form in the event. Donald in fact won the Honda before it moved to PGA National, but he's also thrived here, with four top-10 finishes in as many appearances from 2008 to 2015. Fine, calling upon form from when he was the peak of his powers might be a stretch, but last year he finished 11th, ranking fourth in approaches, and contending having sat second at halfway.

Always at his best in Florida, that was his only start in the Sunshine State in 2020. In 2019, his only start was at the Valspar, where again he contended, and this time he finished ninth. On neither occasion was he the player he once was, but a return to courses he loves, championships he's won, and his ideal conditions helped spark him into life.

Not all missed cuts are equal, and hand on heart I fancy Donald to make this one. If he does, granted a little luck, perhaps we'll get a run for our money at just about the maximum price you'll get for a serious golfer.

Finally, given the strength of the field I'd advise anyone to keep an eye on prices relating to Monday qualifiers. As I write, the hugely promising Justin Suh is in a good position to make the field, and Erik Compton seems certain to, returning to an event in which he was fourth in 2013.

Posted at 1900 GMT on 15/03/21

Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record

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