Martin Mathews takes a look at the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where Tony Finau holds a narrow lead.
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2pts Adam Long to finish in the top five at 9/4
I said yesterday that I wasn’t keen on the chances of any of the three men at the head of affairs after 36 holes in Phoenix of cementing their places at the top of the leaderboard on Saturday and so it proved.
The member of the trio who faired relatively the best was J.B. Holmes, however a lacklustre round of 71 saw him slip back in to a tie for third place, while his playing partners Billy Horschel and Wyndham Clark limped home in 73 and 74 respectively.
With the front three struggling, the men to take advantage - and who now sit first and second through 54 holes - were Tony Finau and Webb Simpson.
Finau was in mesmerising form, particularly off the tee, as he turned around a long game that saw him hit only 13 fairways in total over the first two days, to find 12 out of 14 on Saturday.
As a result, with his approach play dialled in from the short stuff, the man from Utah skipped round the course in a career-low-equalling 62, a score that he has already shot on two previous occasions this season.
Behind him Simpson was almost as impressive, the highlight of his 64 being a hole in one at the par-three 12th which rolled in like a short birdie putt.
With Finau looking in complete control of his game he now has a huge opportunity to finally bag a second PGA Tour title, almost four years after his lone success to date, which came in an opposite field event in Puerto Rico.
The problem is though that even the 30-year-old’s most ardent of supporters would likely admit that he can't be backed with genuine confidence going in to Sunday at a best price of 12/5, allowing for his in-contention record.
Originally due to play in Saudi Arabia this week before changing his plans at the last minute to enter here, Finau cited the fact that he has just moved his family to Scottsdale and needed to stay locally to support them in that process.
Whether that be the case, or whether there is something deeper that led him to decide against the trek to the Middle East, the fact remains that as a five-time runner-up on the PGA Tour he has continually failed to get over the line and while you have to think he must surely win again soon, until he does he wont be carrying my cash at short odds.
If Finau does falter in principle his closest chaser Simpson is in the box seat to take advantage, however with the 2012 US Open champion only having one title to his name in the past six years, the 2018 Players Championship, despite a further 13 top-10 finishes since his Sawgrass success, he is not for me either at 11/4.
Instead, and bearing in mind both the nature of this course and its climax plus several come-from-behind winners in the event, you would have to think that someone from further down the leaderboard could well produce fireworks and put these two quality players under serious pressure.
While it may be that Holmes now feels more comfortable as the hunter rather than the hunted, the man who’s name sticks out like a sore thumb as ideally positioned is Xander Schauffele at 13-under and three shots back.
Schauffele, a four-time PGA Tour champion, last tasted victory when he came from five shots back on Sunday to post a 62 to win the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions, while prior to that he was Finau’s nemesis when pinching the WGC-HSBC Champions from under his nose in a play-off at the back end of 2018. That day as this, he started three behind a vulnerable leader.
With 10 players sat within five shots of the lead though and a further five, including Jon Rahm, only one further back, all of whom will still think they have a chance based on history here, I still feel this is an incredibly tough event to call. Schauffele would be my pick if forced to make one, but I will leave the outright market alone and hope that Ben Coley’s pre-tournament 80-1 selection Byeong Hun An, who sits four adrift, can be the man to produce the Sunday fireworks.
Instead, I will focus on the top-five finish market and on a player, Adam Long, who is not being given the respect he deserves here.
Currently sat in a tie for fifth on 13-under, Long showed when seeing off Phil Mickelson at the Desert Classic last year that he has what it takes on a Sunday and a run to a second PGA Tour title can’t be ruled out.
This week all departments of Long’s game have been in good working order, with his iron play seeing him sit second for the week in strokes-gained approach.
Unlike some of those around him on the leaderboard his score has not been made by one stellar day where he got ‘hot’ but three solid rounds of 66, 68 and another 66 on Saturday, which was bogey free, and similar again on Sunday should be enough to see him remain in the top five.
Starting Sunday on the same score as Scott Piercy, who has not posted a top ten on tour since May last year, and one shot behind Hudson Swafford who will surely feel some contention rust having been absent with injury for most of last year, Long is entitled to be more relaxed than most with his PGA Tour status secure.
A near-miss in Mexico in November confirmed once again that when he does get in the mix, he's capable of sticking around, and upwards of 2/1 looks good value with which to end our week in Phoenix.
Posted at 0750 GMT on 02/02/20
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