AIG Women's Open betting preview and tips: Links form key to Women's Open

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Inbee Park at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Stacy Lewis at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Yu Liu at 35/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Georgia Hall at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

When unknown Japanese player Hinako Shibuno rocked up to this tournament 12 months she was in for a shock. "Whenever I think of this championship, I think of links courses," she said. "But when I came here to Woburn it reminded me of Japanese courses with lots of trees." The 20-year-old then turned her surprise upon the world, utilising endless high fives, a deadpan wit and dazzling golf to tame the front nine and dismantle the back nine on her way to a stunning victory.

This week she defends not the Women’s British Open but the Women’s Open, a subtle title change, one which reflects the championship’s relatively new R&A guardianship, and from now on we can also expect it to follow the Open’s much-loved tradition of clinging to the coastline of Britain and Ireland. Good news for everyone, except perhaps Shibuno, who finally got to experience the linksland in last week’s Scottish Open and tumbled out early with rounds of 79-77.

There is no move south of the border, instead a shift from the east coast to the west for a first tournament visit to Royal Troon, whilst the field is impacted by the worldwide situation, with four of the world’s top ten players, including number one Jin Young Ko, missing.

The woman hot on Ko’s heels in the rankings, Danielle Kang, leads the betting and provides an immediate dilemma. The 27-year-old has apparently spent lockdown eating spinach, emerging transformed from a fine player into a sensational one who has won twice and then added fifth last week at the Renaissance Club. The latter effort was as notable as the victories because in her only previous ventures on the links (seven starts in this week’s event) she had failed to land one top-40 finish. Her blistering form may well continue to overwhelm her history, but it’s not something I’m tempted to chance at a skinny 15/2 (even 11/2 in places).

I’m more torn by the idea of backing second favourite Minjee Lee who has twice finished top ten on the linksland in this event and also owns a pair of wins at the links-like 13th Beach in the Vic Open. On the other hand the notion of backing a 10/1 shot that has just one top five in 29 major championship starts is a little off-putting.

Instead, INBEE PARK makes appeal at twice that price off the back of 13 major top-fives, six of them wins. Admittedly she hasn’t won a big one since 2015, but she’s far from a spent force in the majors with five top-tens in the last two years and she’s also a winner this season, at the Australian Open. In her ten starts on the linksland in this event she has seven finishes of T11th or better with fourth at Royal Birkdale, second at Royal Liverpool and a win at Turnberry – the latter two in high wind, which is predicted this week, and occasional heavy rain, which is not out of the question either.

She’s one of the great quirky talents of the sport, swinging the club like a wonky gate before taking aim like an assassin on the green, but don’t let that distract. Rather like Miguel Angel Jimenez she plays golf rather than swings clubs and it explains why she deals so diligently with the vagaries of seaside golf, bad weather and top level competition. Take the 20/1.

Since this tournament became a major in the early years of the century there have been 14 editions on linksland and there are two thumping big clues among the list of winners. The first is form: 12 of them had logged a top-12 finish in their previous two starts. The second is affinity for the seaside: 12 of them had already landed a top-12 in the tournament on the links. The two exceptions were Mo Martin at Royal Birkale (an absolute, but rather wonderful, bolt from the blue) and Yani Tseng’s first win which lacked the links result, but she had been runner-up at Sunningdale.

Those two rather simple filters, neither of which is remotely oddball in any sense, do rather narrow the field. Lydia Ko qualifies and a return to the winner’s circle would make a terrific story, but as with Carlota Ciganda (five top-tens in her last nine major starts) there are plus points, but also too many doubts at around 28/1 whilst Brooke Henderson lacks the form in the sense that she hasn’t been seen in action since January (she does have experience of playing the Postage Stamp however, albeit on a replica in Florida).

STACY LEWIS, on the other hand, has proved her form with a top ten at Highland Meadows at the start of the month and rubber-stamped it with victory last week in the Scottish Open. When you add in her undoubted pedigree as a former world number one and her excellence in the tournament (victory on the Old Course, top-20 finishes at Kingsbarns, Turnberry, Royal Birkdale, Royal Liverpool and Carnoustie) it might come as something of a surprise that she’s available at 40/1.

That grades her alongside Marina Alex who has one major top ten in 29 starts and one career win, which is not to denigrate Alex, who might well be buoyed by a return to Scotland after she played so excellently in last year’s Solheim Cup (and who passes both those two filters), instead it highlights that Lewis is worth adding to the staking plan, especially given the very latest reports which don’t just suggest, but expect, gusts of over 30mph on Thursday and which are 90% certain of them on Friday. Like Park, Lewis, possesses the experience and doggedness for such conditions.

As is China’s YU LIU, a 24-year-old who finished tied seventh at this event when last played on the links, at Royal Lytham & St Annes in 2018, and has a trio of top-25 finishes from her three starts on linksland in the Scottish Open. The most recent of those efforts was, of course, last week when she was tied sixth heading into the final lap. A 76 ruined her chances of victory, but it also means she arrives at Troon in form and with a vivid reminder of what to do and what not to do next time she’s in-contention. Prior to that she made the top five at Highland Meadows, shortly before her journey across the Atlantic.

Last season she grabbed a top five at the Seaview Resort, a Donald Ross design by the Atlantic in New Jersey which has proved a decent pointer toward solid LPGA links performers. She’s also finished T22nd and T16th at 13th Beach in Victoria, and was fourth in the Australian Open at Royal Adelaide behind Park earlier this year. The 50/1 makes appeal for a player sneakily fond of this form of the game.

For a final selection I head to home shores. Jodi Ewart makes appeal having made a top ten in the Australian Open in her final start before lockdown and opened the return to action with fifth and second in America. She was also second behind In-Kyung Kim in this event at Kingsbarns in 2017 so ticks the boxes, but her other four Women’s Open starts on the links produced missed cuts and at the seaside Scottish Open she’s added another two missed cuts and a T59. That’s bothersome and linksland is not Charley Hull’s favourite place to hit balls either. In fact her best return in this event was T12th at Royal Birkdale when she whistled down the fairways and pretended they had trees down either side.

So I’m going to push the margins of how I judge form in order to include GEORGIA HALL, who can be backed at 50/1 which seems mighty generous when you contrast her with Ewart’s 22/1 and Hull’s 33/1 in places. The 24-year-old Briton tied Lydia Ko for low amateur honours in her Women’s Open debut, flirted with the lead whilst still an amateur at Royal Birkdale, collected third at Kingsbarns and was a bold and brilliant winner at Royal Lytham & St Annes two years ago. It’s probably fair to say that she was a bit miffed she had to defend her title on a parkland course.

“It didn’t suit me,” she admitted to The Scotsman recently. “But I’m happy with where I finished (at Woburn). Troon, I think, suits me a lot more so I look forward to playing there.” She added: “Scotland is my favourite place in the world. I absolutely love it. To win in Scotland, especially on a links course, would be awesome.”

Her form? She made the cut and never contended last week in the Scottish Open (something which happened ahead of her win two years ago) and before that she was third in the abbreviated Grand Final of the Rose Ladies Series. Before then she won two of the 18-hole tournaments and shot 70 for second at Royal St George’s.

The books make Hall the third best British option after Ewart and Hull and I disagree. She has the strongest links pedigree and if the wind does blow she’s possesses the sang froid to deal with it. In fact it’s entirely possible that, Padraig Harrington-style, she’d welcome such conditions. The more linksy the better.

Posted at 1150 BST on 18/08/20

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