European Tour: Irish Open betting preview and free tips from Matt Cooper

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Aaron Rai at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Mikko Korhonen at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts win Shane Lowry at 8/1

1pt e.w. Sebastian Soderberg to lead after R1 at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

It’s essential in these torrid times to avoid quibbling and griping about matters of limited importance and golf, of course, fits very neatly into the less-than-vital category. But if we make certain to keep any disappointment well within the confines of suitable context, there is an absolute truth to acknowledge ahead of this year’s Irish Open which is that when the tournament is not held by the seaside it immediately feels a little less perfect that it ought to.

The Irish coastline boasts some of the world’s greatest courses and in the last few years alone we’ve been treated to the brilliance and beauty of Lahinch, Ballyliffin and Portstewart. The last of those is but a short distance from Royal Portrush, host of last year’s joyous return of the Open to Northern Irish shores, and both of them are not too far from this week’s venue, Galgorm Castle Golf Club in Ballymena.

It’s a parkland layout, opened in 1997 and is a perfectly nice place to play 18 holes, but I’m rather reminded of an American visitor I once fell into conversation with in Dublin who was mortified that his party’s next round of golf would be played on an inland test. “I haven’t flown across the God-damned Atlantic to play a course we’ve got at least four thousand better versions of back home,” he growled into his Bushmills, adding with surprising menace: “I’m going AWOL tomorrow.” Possibly the first, and last, time anyone has viewed hitting the linksland as something akin to going rogue in the jungles of Vietnam.

No such options exist for the competitors this week and nor should there be as the Tour continues to provide a schedule for them, and entertainment for us, from within the bubble. Galgorm Castle stepped in at the last moment to replace Mount Juliet and is to be congratulated for being both willing and able to do so. Indeed, it’s been a popular venue for the Challenge Tour’s Northern Ireland Open every year since 2013 and it was only last month that Arizona-based mini tour journeyman Tyler Koivisto completed an astonishing victory in the most recent renewal.

The 27-year-old entered last year’s Qualifying School, but got no further than the first stage. Yet amid the chaos of 2020 that effort did unexpectedly earn a late call to Galgorm. Not for Koivisto his compatriot’s disdain for heading inland. Instead the Game of Thrones fan (the series is filmed in Northern Ireland) explained that he was “carefree and at peace, not worried about results and expectations” as he thrashed a third round 62 to take a three-shot 54-hole lead. “My mom was freaking out,” he explained, as she hit the refresh button all Sunday, witnessing from afar a win that has transformed his golfing life. He will return to the scene of his triumph perhaps barely able to comprehend what has happened to him.

He’s not alone in having happy recollections of the track. Past winners teeing it up this week include Jack Senior, Calum Hill, Robin Sciot-Siegrist, Joakim Lagergren, Clement Sordet and Daan Huizing. The roll-call of past champions is completed by Ryan Fox, a Kiwi with great fondness for the Emerald Isle (he’s finished second and fourth in the Irish Open, and was tied third after 18 holes at Royal Portrush). His chances were considered, but his experience at the U.S. Open, where he shot 74-85, was off-putting. So, too, was his difficulty keeping at least one damaging round off his tournament card this summer.

First pick, therefore, goes to a man with less obvious form at the course – England’s AARON RAI. The 25-year-old from Wolverhampton previously played Galgorm during his consistent rookie campaign on the 2016 Challenge Tour and it was a promising effort. He opened with a 68 and then added 69-67 at the weekend – it was only a Friday 72 which kept him out of the top ten, eventually recording T23rd. I also grant that performance some leeway because the week before he had been contending for what would have been his first win on the second tier.

Above and beyond that result I also like that he has an exceptional record at Golf PGA France du Vaudreuil which is another long-term Challenge Tour venue. Six past winners at Galgorm have also played at the French layout and five of them thrived there: Fox with the win, Sordet claimed second, Huzing multiple top fives, Sciot-Siegrist multiple top tens and Senior contended. Rai was second there in 2016 and won by five strokes in 2017.

Rai’s preference for parkland courses with more traditional greens is also interesting. Galgorm might have been created in the 1990s, but it doesn’t feature the notably raised putting surfaces that Jack Nicklaus designs favour, or which are seen on many modern constructs such as the 2010 course at Celtic Manor. Instead the greens are more like those at The Belfry or Forest of Arden.

Rai has been in neat form since the end of lockdown – making the cut in all of his six appearances – and the best of the results were at those two venues: tied tenth at Arden and T15th at The Belfry. To emphasise those putting surface preferences, his win at Hong Kong and fifth at Gut Larchenhof might also be instructive.

I well remember the first time I came across Finland’s MIKKO KORHONEN, mostly because in retrospect I suspect it was deeply misleading. The location was PGA Catalunya, the occasion final stage of Q School and the atmosphere was fraught. Whispering onlookers tip-toed around the competitors, the putting green witnessed no banter, merely silence, and a creepy mist hung in the trees.

When Korhonen appeared on the first tee everything about him suggested reticence, with his awkward body language and diffident manner. Yet he played the tournament exceptionally well and has since picked up two wins on the European Tour, proving himself a doughty competitor. Prior to lockdown he nearly made it three victories, leading at Al Mouj in Oman before finishing fourth, and after the return to action he also threatened to win the Hero Open at Forest of Arden, one back with 18 holes to play before ending the week sixth.

His consistency at this level is still a little under-rated, perhaps for reasons which prompted my rush to judgment. Yet he ranks joint second in stroke average over the last 12 months (alongside Joost Luiten, behind only Shane Lowry) and, even if you stretch the period to three years, it still the same two high quality players who better him.

He enjoys parkland golf, as wins at Diamond County Club and Genzon Golf Club plus a second at Gut Larchenhof demonstrate, and his odds just don’t reflect that long-term strength.

Final selection in the outright market goes to SHANE LOWRY, the favourite but for good reason.

His quality is initially revealed in the same adjusted score averages referenced with Korhonen – he leads the field over three years and also 12 months. It may surprise some that he is also well clear in the last eight weeks, but that reflects that he has been up against tougher opposition on the PGA Tour.

I also like his form in standard European Tour events since the starts of 2019. He’s contended in 12 of those and whilst it’s a small sample, it includes two wins and another six top 15 finishes. Furthermore, in five of those half dozen top 15s no more than three of this week’s field outscored him (and in the sixth just six did). It adds to the belief that up against this standard of field his class will most often see him contend.

He said of his performance last week at Winged Foot, when he finished T43rd having been T119th after 18 holes: “My short game was good, my putting was good and I’ve found a driver that I liked, drove the ball well. Overall, I was happier than my score suggests.”

To that can be added the good vibes he’ll pick up on as he ventures north again, if not quite to the scene of his Open success, then close enough to raise fond memories. Unlike that win, or his victory in this tournament in 2009, there will no raucous galleries cheering his every shot, but he can make it three wins in 13 starts on the island.

SEBASTIAN SODERBERG caused something of a surprise last year when winning the European Masters, first when shooting a pair of 66s to reach the play-off, then overcoming four opponents in extra holes, not least the favourite Rory McIlroy. In more recent weeks he’s cropped up on leaderboards thrashing plenty of good scores and that suggests that he’ll be worth backing in the First Round Leader market.

The Swede opened with a 66 to be tied fourth in the Celtic Classic, with a 68 for tied third at the Wales Open and another 66 for tied fifth in the Portugal Masters. In addition to that, his third round 65 at the Celtic Classic was bettered by only two players and his Saturday 68 in the Wales Open by only three. Then, when last seen, his closing 64 in the Portugal Masters was the joint low round of the day. That’s all in his last four starts alone. Furthermore he has, in 2020, been tied third after one lap at the Saudi International and his round two 66 in the Qatar Masters also had him among the top five low scorers for the day.

At the moment he also has a tendency to throw in a big number at some point in the week, but his capacity to go low for 18 holes extends to Galgorm where he hit a 65 in the final round of his only visit there in 2016.

Posted at 1915 BST on 21/09/20

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