Ben Coley's free betting tips for the Houston Open

Houston Open recommended bets

1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Jamie Lovemark at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Chez Reavie at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Corey Conners at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Grayson Murray at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Shawn Stefani at 300/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

As is now tradition, the Houston Open offers one final opportunity for those playing in the Masters to hone their games ahead of Augusta, and those yet to qualify the opportunity to earn a golden ticket by winning this title.

It's a perfect formula for what is often an enthralling tournament in its own right, but a note of caution is attached. So many of those who have already qualified are here in body but not mind and willing to sacrifice shots if it makes for a perceived better Augusta preparation, and those who haven't must deal with what's at stake if they do work their way into contention on Sunday.

Anyone who watched the Match Play last week might recall that an incentive greater than the title itself managed to stop Justin Thomas in his tracks, but in broad terms that's not something to dwell on. Russell Henley was the latest in a fairly long line of players to win a Masters spot by taking this title and, like so many, found it fairly easy to focus on the job in hand.

While the players without an Augusta ticket - typically quoted at bigger prices - should be judged on merit, the market leaders are to be approached with caution. It's not that they can't win this title - Phil Mickelson is among the well-fancied champions - but the roll-of-honour tells us that they're more vulnerable, collectively, than might've been the case a couple of weeks ago.

Sky Bet: Masters odds (10 places)

8/1 - Rory McIlroy,

9/1 - Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods

10/1 - Justin Thomas

12/1 - Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose

Odds correct at 1230 BST on 27/03/18

For Mickelson, most of the work is now done and he's tasted victory this season already, so whatever happens here he'll head to Augusta in top shape. Similar comments apply to Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Henrik Stenson, all of whom skipped the Match Play and will look to shake off any rust here, and of the market principals there's only one who I think will be desperate to get in the mix - Jordan Spieth.

The three-time major champion has endured a difficult year by his absurdly high standards and is yet to hit the frame in eight starts. He's missed two cuts, too, one shy of the number he missed throughout the whole of 2017, and it's fairly obvious that the magic spell he held over his ball on the greens appears to have come undone.

Despite all this, I find him hard to resist. I strongly suspect that Spieth will consider a title challenge here in Houston to be paramount if he's to win a second Masters, and first since that famous meltdown which handed Danny Willett an opportunity. That focus and the lack of it among his peers at the top of the market makes for a tempting proposition at 12/1, and it's only the fact that he says this course really doesn't suit him which makes the decision for me.

Once we get beyond the head of the market, we're at Russell Henley and Daniel Berger, who have demonstrated the value of course form here. Henley had finished seventh, fourth and fifth before winning here 12 months ago and Berger followed fifth in 2016 with an identical finish in 2017.

Neither can be dismissed, both having made the early exit at the Match Play which I suspect will prove beneficial. Now that the event sits on the heels of this one and demands seven matches for the semi-finalists, including four across the weekend, I consider last week's event a poor way to prepare for a title challenge in Houston. We don't have much evidence yet, but the only big name who contended here last year was Fowler, who skipped it. A year earlier the pick of them was Stenson, who again skipped it.

Berger would edge the vote from Henley on the balance of their play this year, but I'd rather overlook Austin altogether and make Byeong Hun An the standout alternative at 50/1.

An is simply playing really well, a fact demonstrated by his 14th at Bay Hill last time, fifth in the Honda Classic and sixth in Dubai at the start of the season. He's made five cuts in six and, following a subdued 2017, looks back to his best.

What I particularly like is that he's exuding control from tee-to-green and while Houston's pure putting surfaces do require a good week, An is setting up enough chances to make that a risk worth taking at the odds.

This will be his course debut, but I like the fact he was fifth in the Byron Nelson on his last Texas start last May, however the key pointer for me is his performance in Phoenix last year, where he led through three rounds only to struggle a little on Sunday.

Scottsdale is a water-laden, risk-reward layout which definitely shares some similarities with Golf Club of Houston and there are some strong correlations between leaderboards. An's ability to work out Scottsdale at the first time of asking bodes well for his prospects of doing so here, too.

The closest he's come to winning on the PGA Tour was at TPC Louisiana which is another course I'd consider to be a decent guide, and at ninth in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 17th for approach shots this year, we may only be relying on an average week around the greens if he does prove suited to the layout.

An will have been disappointed with his back-nine at Bay Hill last time, one which cost him another top-10 finish, but is expected to bounce back and launch a bid for an Augusta place.

Luke List looks incredibly short despite a good record at the course, and I'd rather take a chance on a man so easily confused with him, Jamie Lovemark.

When An went closest to his breakthrough in Louisiana, so did Lovemark, somehow losing a play-off to Brian Stuard having missed a glorious opportunity to close the door in regulation.

He's also had a chance to win here, leading through 54 holes in 2016, and one of the more powerful players on the circuit is clearly advantaged by a relatively low-scoring test on a par 72 which doesn't punish his wayward driving.

Although this is far from an all-out slug-fest, Houston is set up to mimic Augusta and that means little in the way of rough, so providing Lovemark can stay out of trouble the strength of his approach play and improvements in his short game should be allowed to shine.

In terms of recent form, he's contended twice this spring - sixth at halfway at Riviera and then leading the field through 36 holes of the Honda Classic - and he's done some good work through the middle rounds on less suitable golf courses in his two subsequent starts.

Freshened up after a fortnight off, he's fancied to improve on what was ultimately a disappointing 18th place here in 2016, especially if the forecast rain materialises as it did a year ago.

Bud Cauley likes it here and was razor sharp around the greens on his second start following a wrist injury last time, but I'd like to have seen better from the long-game to side with him at 80/1.

More tempting in Texas resident Sean O'Hair, whose improved form (12-7) in Florida came immediately after Steve Stricker's first Champions Tour win. The pair won the QBE Shootout together late last year and O'Hair looks to have been jolted into life at just the right time.

He's classy enough to pull off something remarkable and earn a return to Augusta, but I'd rather focus on that Scottsdale link once more and side with Chez Reavie.

Earlier this year, Reavie finally earned rewards for a phenomenally consistent run of golf as he finished runner-up there in the Phoenix Open, an event he'd looked set to win before ultimately losing a play-off to Gary Woodland.

One week later and he again finished second, this time to Ted Potter at Pebble Beach, and it's possible that he continues to bump into one as his winless run extends towards a decade.

However, he's back under the radar here which will suit and of those who played the Match Play last week, the 36-year-old brings forward a nice blend of having played well but failed to advance to the weekend.

Although Jon Rahm wasn't at his best, it must surely have been a nice confidence boost to beat him in a tight match and Reavie fought hard for a half against Keegan Bradley, ultimately eliminated because of an opening defeat to match play king Kiradech Aphibarnrat.

There was certainly enough evidence to suggest that he is back in decent shape after a bit of a comedown following those runner-up finishes and a return to Houston, where he was seventh playing on a medical exemption during a difficult 2016, is a positive.

Reavie's abysmal Augusta record should also ensure that while delighted to be back in the Masters, he's probably not expecting to contend and the focus for a player whose sole PGA Tour win came almost a decade ago will be on this event only.

Assessing the value of last week's 'opposite' event in the Dominican Republic isn't easy, but there's a case to be made for a couple of those I sided with and I am willing to give Corey Conners another chance.

Out to a three-figure price in this much loftier company, the Canadian is considered value owing to the strength of his play through the first three rounds of his last two events, and what's been a very consistent rookie campaign to date.

Conners has missed just one cut and finally put it all together to lead after 54 holes at the Valspar, struggling on Sunday when paired with Justin Rose and playing behind Tiger Woods, and it was a similar tale last week as he sat second heading into Sunday only to fall out of the top 10.

Clearly, it was a blow to those of us on at 50/1 - I was pretty confident he'd launch a serious title challenge on Sunday - but a closing double-bogey was all that cost Conners a place, and by all accounts he started the day hitting the ball really well only to miss a couple of good chances.

I suspect that had one of them fallen, it'd have been an altogether different story and it's certainly easy to consider his performance a step up from the Valspar, where he looked liked a frightened rabbit from the very first shot.

However you seek to dress it, the former US Amateur finalist is hitting the ball really well, arrives on the back of his best two PGA Tour performances and, in my mind, rates a player who is likely to go very close before the season is out as he learns from his mistakes.

Here in Houston, a course where strong ball-striking has seen the likes of Stenson and Billy Horschel go exceptionally close, it's worth backing him to get straight back on the bike.

Tom Lovelady is another youngster who looks like he's close to a breakout performance but the more proven credentials of Grayson Murray and Shawn Stefani conclude this week's selections.

Murray was 14th last time, finishing on a high as the putter warmed up at Bay Hill. That's four top-15s for the season, his second on the PGA Tour, and his effort at the CareerBuilder looks like a decent pointer.

Last year, he arrived here having failed to break 80 in the first round of his previous start yet snapped a run of missed cuts, and while he does need to improve again an opening 68 offers encouragement as to the suitability of the course.

He followed that with a second-round 63 at the Byron Nelson on his next start in Texas and might just have rediscovered his game in time for this return. Again, at three-figure prices that looks to be a chance worth taking.

As for Stefani, he grew up playing this golf course, spends his winters practicing here and has translated that to top-level performances, twice contending for this title.

He was fifth in 2014 when playing on his final start of a medical extension, during which he heaped praise on the organisers he knows really well and spoke of how comfortable he feels playing on home soil in front of friends and family.

That means last week's 13th place - his first cut made of the year - came at just the right time. Whether it's enough to build on remains to be seen, but at 300/1 it's a small risk worth taking.

Posted at 1230 BST on 27/03/18.

Related links

• Sky Bet - paying eight places