Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Czech Masters
Sam Horsfield can reward faith and patience in the Czech Masters, where hitting the ball a long way off the tee is the best starting point.
Golf betting tips: Czech Masters
5pts win Sam Horsfield at 11/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Richard Mansell at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Tapio Pulkkanen at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Toby Tree at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Bai Zheng-kai at 200/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
With the likes of Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer and Bernd Wiesberger set to feature in next week's European Masters, the strength of field rating on the European Tour is soon to go up a notch. Robert MacIntyre is also entered, presumably in case he were to go ahead and win the Boise Open this week. Among the clouds in the Alps, Ryder Cup stars of the past will meet with those hoping to be very much part of the future as the final steps along the road to Whistling Straits take in Switzerland, Italy, and then England.
Before all that we have the Czech Masters, which does feature Danny Willett, Padraig Harrington and Henrik Stenson, as well as an Olympic silver medallist in Rory Sabbatini, but is most notable for being extremely weak. Indeed Harrington went off 300/1 last week in the USA and played poorly, yet he's not far off the front of the betting here. Stenson, who is all at sea, is no bigger than 40/1. Willett and Sabbatini are 13/2 combined.
If that's the distinguishing feature of the field, then the distinguishing feature of the course is no more difficult to interpret: Albatross Golf Resort is, for my money, the single most big-hitter-friendly track on the European Tour. That's partly because it's in that length sweet-spot, where par-fives are in reach for the bombers as well as the par-four sixth, but also reflects an almost total lack of punishment for the wayward. You'll see driver upon driver here and there's every chance those who hit it furthest dominate the final leaderboard.
All this is supported by a roll-of-honour that includes two wins for Thomas Pieters, which could and perhaps should have been three, plus the fact that Pelle Edberg and Adri Arnaus have been among his victims. Gavin Green has twice shot 64 to open, latterly confessing that he 'hit drivers a lot, everywhere, as hard as I could'. Green is far from alone in expressing the view that Albatross plays into his hands, just like Royal Greens in Saudi Arabia, where he and Pieters also happen to have shone.
Andrea Pavan, whose career is in jeopardy because he can't keep the ball on the planet from the tee, beat Harrington to this title once. Again, both spray it but at their best excel thereafter, and Harrington's latest European Tour win came under similar conditions in Portugal. Haydn Porteous, whose Czech partner was on hand to see him win here, said: "I feel like I have the length advantage to get on those par-fives in two. I think that's quite a big advantage on this course."
Who is the best bet for the Czech Masters?
A quicker way to summarise would've been to suggest that the 2019 leaderboard tells you all you need to know. Back then, Pieters beat Arnaus with SAM HORSFIELD sharing third, and even at short prices it's very hard to leave the latter out of the staking plan.
Horsfield has tested our patience this year, having been a feature on these pages. In fact he's been selected five times and is yet to win, but let's not be too hard on him: his results in these five events read 3-4-5-WD-6, so barring the recurrence of a niggling injury he's delivered everything bar silverware.
All five tournaments were driver-heavy, where his attacking prowess ought to be a perfect fit, whereas for now he's best avoided when disaster lurks. He's found enough of those in places nobody knew existed, so courses like that used for the Scandinavian Mixed, or the Belfry, or Diamond in Austria, come with a health warning.
Here at Albatross, there's enough water in play to ensure that threat of a big number lingers, but the emphasis is plainly on going after the course and both creating and taking opportunities. Two years ago Horsfield did that on his debut in the event, carding 22 birdies and an eagle, and but for making an enemy of the eighth hole he might've been the one giving Pieters most to think about.
At the time he was outside the world's top 200 and, more to the point, sat 152nd on the Race to Dubai. His form for the year read 32-MC-24-MC-33-32-74-MC-61-MC-21-MC-MC, that's zero top-20 finishes in 13 starts, and come the end of the campaign third place here was his standout effort. It was the only time he entered Sunday with a chance to win.
Two years on and having come of age post-lockdown, following months of hard work with Sean Foley, he's now inside the world's top 100 and second among these in strokes-gained total for the year. He is to my mind the best player in the field and after ranking first in strokes-gained tee-to-green when we saw him last, his game remains in excellent shape.
In fact Horsfield could yet launch a late Ryder Cup bid. Truly, I believe he'd be an asset to the team, particularly at Whistling Straits, that's assuming he'd sign up to play given that he was raised in Florida. If there is anyone in this field who is going to make Harrington think twice it will be him and he's the class act playing on a course made for his game.
Hopefully those rotten Fridays in Wales and Germany will be forgotten by the time we reach Sunday in the Czech Republic. If your patience can stretch through one more week, it might well be rewarded.
The leader in strokes-gained total this year is Jacques Kruyswijk, who is another to underline the challenge here at Albatross. Despite being out of form and outside the world's top 500, this huge hitter from South Africa was 23rd in 2019, and his 2018 top-10 was his first for four months and followed a miserable summer.
He has to be a big runner here, with European Tour form which reads 5-5-7-25-17-10-11, but it's five years since his sole Sunshine Tour win and some of his finishing efforts have been unconvincing. Generally one to give players the benefit of the doubt — as Calum Hill demonstrated, sometimes you have to learn to lose at this level before you learn to win — I can't bring myself to do so at the 25 and 28/1 beside his name.
Dean Burmester was far more tempting, but at the prices you have to look twice at the negatives and doing so has forced him out of the staking plan. A big-hitter who loves courses which demand all-out attack, there's a lot to like given that his approach play lately has been excellent, however he's not done enough here and the month absence would be another worry.
Adri Arnaus produced an exceptional tee-to-green display here when forcing Pieters to pull out all the stops but his long-game has been off for a while now, Vincent Norrman could well bounce back and put his length to use and George Coetzee has an excellent record when teeing it up in Europe following a win back home, something he achieved again two weeks ago.
All are respected but none are convincing so I'd rather chance some big-hitters at bigger prices, starting with TAPIO PULKKANEN.
This is definitely a good course for the Finn, who struck it well for 39th place on his last visit having been 44th on debut, a performance which doesn't tell the whole story. Back then, as an out-of-form rookie, he shot 65-69 to lie third at halfway and remained fifth through 54 holes, before a difficult final round.
He's certainly in far better form for his return, having been 35th in a Rolex Series event in Scotland and then 25th in the Cazoo Open at Celtic Manor, and his third place in the Canary Islands back in the spring came at a course where driver was required more often than not, and where he was able to get away with being wayward.
"I feel I can really play on this course; I feel really confident," was his succinct verdict here in 2018 and while I'd like to see this big-hitter gaining strokes off the tee, he might just manage it through power alone on this occasion.
Pulkkanen's sole Challenge Tour win came on a huge course in Kazakhstan and he's also a winner at Green Eagle in Germany, another which is seriously long. He's playing well enough to make an impression in this company.
So too is NICOLAI HOJGAARD, sixth for driving distance this season and 21st in approach play, enough to suggest he may only need to avoid the big number to get competitive.
Hojgaard couldn't quite do that last week, three sixes on the card confining him to 21st, but he improved as he went at the London Club and should find that there's less punishment for those mishaps here at Albatross.
Like Pulkkanen, his best performance so far this year came out in the Canary Islands when records tumbled and while scoring will not be as low, the same skill set applies: reach for the driver, go find it, and attack the flag with your approach shots.
His putter has been behaving lately and his missed cut in Scotland prior to last week came on the number. It's only a month since he sat 10th with a round to go at Celtic Manor and the talented twin looks close to a big performance under the right circumstances.
One place ahead of Hojgaard in the distance stats is RICHARD MANSELL, who has quickly established himself as one of the very best drivers on the European Tour.
His approach play two starts back in Wales was as good as it's been at this level and the young Englishman, who has a bright future, should find this far more suitable than the fiddly test provided by Galgorm Castle on his latest start.
Mansell is yet another who contended in the Canary Islands, sitting second through 54 holes of the final event there, and he's capable of a performance similar to that of Arnaus two years ago at a course which doesn't take a great deal of getting to know.
Very fair to say it’s been coming! Class act and well played @CalumHill_golf 💪🏼👏🏼
— RICHARD MANSELL (@richardmansel14) August 15, 2021
Mansell's compatriot TOBY TREE is another course debutant but he's played in Prague a number of times, with four top-20 finishes from his last five visits, all on the Challenge Tour.
The well-travelled youngster looks to be finding his feet at this higher level now and has made four cuts in a row, often starting well including last week at the London Club. Before that he finished 16th in the Hero Open thanks to a brilliant driving display, whereas last week he was too erratic to make his length count.
As touched upon more than once, he may find that there's less punishment for giving it a belt here and his approach play, enough to rank 22nd in each of his last two outings, has been good enough to suggest he's capable of a very strong week from tee-to-green.
Tree will have to putt a little better. Then again perhaps he won't: Pieters and Arnaus both lost strokes to the field with figures similar to those he's been producing of late. At three-figure prices he need only improve a little from the way he's played over the last month to be in contention.
Tidy week up in Scotland. #HeroOpen
— Toby Tree (@TobiasTree) August 8, 2021
Beers on me I guess 🎯 https://t.co/YhvTMmhQhE
Liam Johnston is a 500/1 shot who spent all four rounds inside the top 10 here two years ago, also led after a dazzling 61 in Portugal last year, and has seen his friends win the last two events on the European Tour. Were it not for the fact he's been playing so poorly, he'd have been chanced, although note he did shoot 68 in round two when last in action.
Kristoffer Reitan also has Albatross form and the required power and is probably a shade more realistic a contender at 300/1 but the one I'm really interested in is BAI ZHENG-KAI, or Bobby for short.
This Chinese youngster has just failed to advance to Korn Ferry Tour Finals and faces an uncertain future as a result, but at least missing the cut in Nebraska under tougher-than-he'd-like conditions should help him overcome the journey here to Prague.
He's been very much in and out over there in the US, but two weeks ago shot a second-round 62 in Utah, where he led at halfway, and he hit the ball nicely last month when finishing mid-division after another bright start in the Barbasol Championship for which he was a Monday qualifier.
Back-to-back birdies for Bobby Bai. 🐦
— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) August 7, 2021
He leads by 1 @UTChampionship. pic.twitter.com/rzQv68vBoF
Sixth in Alabama in May, he's shown flashes of the talent which saw him burst onto the scene in 2019, first winning a minor event and then taking the Challenge Tour's Foshan Open by four shots, with Hill third, Richard Bland fourth, and all the best players on that circuit beaten comprehensively.
Yes, home advantage played its part but there's a chance he's a bit better than that grade which immediately makes the prices on offer here of interest, and we can then throw in the fact he gives it an almighty rip off the tee and would be one of the longest hitters in this field.
Based in Florida, he likely has Qualifying School on his agenda but a European Tour opportunity is not to be sniffed at and when presented with one in Sweden two years ago, he shot a brilliant second-round 64 to sit 22nd at halfway before understandably stalling on the weekend.
Far more experienced now, he could make a lot of birdies and even the odd eagle here at Albatross and is almost certainly of far more potential than those around him in the market. I doubt many of them could breeze through to the weekend of a PGA Tour event and contend on the Korn Ferry Tour, to be frank.
"The Korn Ferry Tour is like the growth of a bamboo, it takes time to grow the roots before visible growth above the ground," he told China Daily after successfully coming through Monday Q to make Barbasol, so for more reasons than monetary let's home this philosophical fellow can make the weekend at least.
Niklas Lemke, Zander Lombard, Julien Guerrier, Green himself: you get the message by now. Here at Albatross, the best formula is to side with those who at least have their share of eagle chances. Finding the right one is the hard part.
Posted at 1705 BST on 16/08/21
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