Ben Coley previews the first round of the Tournament of Champions, where Billy Horschel can outperform Justin Thomas.
Recommended bets
1pt Horschel to beat Thomas at 15/8
Round one preview
The wind is set to blow for the first round of the Tournament of Champions, adding to the sense that tentative steps are required as the PGA Tour returns from its Christmas break.
It would surely be unwise to pile into Cameron Champ, for instance, in his two-ball with Satoshi Kodaira. Only one of these is on what seems a straight path to the top of the sport, and Champ's bullet drives will be drooled over for years to come, but his opponent is no mug and signed off 2018 with a win in Japan.
There are better bets at odds-on, including Matt Kuchar to beat Michael Kim, a player who did little either side of that remarkable eight-shot win in the John Deere Classic under conditions a world away from those expected in Hawaii.
Kuchar also won from somewhat out of the blue in Mexico and on just about any other day of the year, 4/6 would be a gift from the gods. He's an excellent coastal player with a sub-70 scoring average at Kapalua and if you do want to get stuck into one, it's a choice of Kuchar, Charles Howell III or indeed both.
Howell III has eight solid rounds at the course to his name - a couple of exceptional ones within that octet - and his RSM Classic win further underlines that today's breeze will only help. Brice Garnett, who did win in the Dominican last year, ought to be outclassed.
Yet I return to the opening sentiment: tentative steps. While past winners here confirm that many players take the transition from one year to the next in their stride, there will be those who lack focus, sharpness or both and only when they take to the course will all be revealed.
As such it's just one bet for me - Billy Horschel to beat Justin Thomas.
While neither player would prefer a gale, both are adept under such conditions but it's the idea that wind acts as a leveller which adds to the view that 15/8 is a good price about the underdog.
The only previous time they teed up together came in last year's BMW Championship, where Horschel won the two-ball by four shots with a scintillating 64, while he was better than JT for three of the four rounds of this event last year.
Thomas of course won the 2017 renewal, but either side of it he's failed to crack the top-20 of an event which this year attracts 34 players, evidence perhaps that if he doesn't manage to get the blood pumping with an early run, he's likely to go through the motions a little.
Earlier this week, he confirmed that he'd needed a rest come the end of the Hero World Challenge, where he carded four so-so rounds of 70 to finish 12th of 18 players. That rest came courtesy of "20 nights at home", which Thomas says is the longest stretch since he turned professional.
Yes, he added that he was able to both "get a good amount of rest" and "work on my game, work on my body", but there were echoes of his 2018 presser - after which he complained of rust during the tournament, telling reporters he made "dumb" mistakes that owe plenty to the timing of the event.
If Thomas is indeed slow out of the gates then Horschel, who ended last year in excellent form, is just the sort to take advantage.
He's a player who will want to prove himself every time he tees off with a member of the elite, where he feels he should be, and form figures of 6-22-11 here are perfectly respectable. There's very little downside in speculating and it doesn't hurt that Horschel was ninth in first-round scoring last season.
State of play
In the outright market, Marc Leishman is in to 25/1 from an advised 33/1 - now set to go off the price he did last year, when but for an awful Saturday he'd surely have separated eventual one-two, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm.
Leishman has confirmed what I had hoped - that a late-season disappointment back home has him geared up for this - and he has a strong chance to enhance the already excellent record of Australians here.
Of the market leaders, Rory McIlroy has been easy to back and that's largely on account of his underwhelming end to last year, the fact that he's making his debut at Plantation and the forecast, which suggests a steady wind for the first two days at least.
McIlroy has also been spotted with the Taylor Made Spider putter, made famous by Jason Day and Dustin Johnson in recent years, and any hint of experimentation tends to have people running scared.
Rory McIlroy and Jason Day are testing a new @TaylorMadeGolf Spider prototype putter in Hawaii. https://t.co/jPQqs0vB1D pic.twitter.com/ZEV8A1cJ0S
— Jonathan Wall (@jonathanrwall) January 2, 2019
On which note, the PGA Tour have published a running list of 2019 equipment changes - although the biggest headline so far is Justin Rose's deal with Honma, the big-thinking Japanese manufacturer.
While it may well be that Rose is able to stick with his Taylor Made ball and most players adapt well in time, in the short-term it's very possible that he's no longer world's most reliable golfer.
Rose isn't in Hawaii but compatriot Paul Casey is, and he too has been spotted with Honma irons during practice. It remains to be seen whether a deal is forthcoming but those in the know are forecasting high-profile additions to Rose in the coming weeks.
Speaking of players who enjoyed fabulous years but are making changes nonetheless, Francesco Molinari has also been seen using Callaway irons, having been a freelancer with Taylor Made in the bag last year. Callaway tend to start the year with a few high-profile signings, although it seems Molinari is likely still a free agent who has been wooed by another firm.
Still, he could be using my clubs and the 48.0 on Betfair would look an overreaction, wouldn't it?
From the pressers
Patrick Reed has a fine record here (16-1-2-6) and says that the Plantation Course speaks to his creative side, while also allowing him to get out of "playing golf swing" as he does in the off-season.
"It's always awesome to be able to come back and play, especially at such an awesome golf course because I just think back home right now when I left it was about 43 degrees and blowing 20 and raining sideways.
"So it was cold and miserable and to be able to hop on a flight, come over here and play this awesome event and have it be 75 degrees and sunny, even though it's windy, it's just an awesome place to be.
"It's a very good spot to kind of start your game and kind of see what you've worked on during the off season and just kind of kick off some of that rust going in."
As to why he likes the course, Reed added: "I think it just brings out the creativity. Even though the fairways are wide, there's areas that you need to put the ball in order to a be, to attack the greens.
"I mean just because of a hole might be 50-yards wide it doesn't mean you can be on every spot that have fairway to attack a flag. With how slopey the greens are and how much the wind blows and kind of the side hill kind of lies you get, I just feel like it taps into kind of the creativity that you need to play just like kind of at Augusta. Play golf shots rather than golf swing.
"And for me during the off season it's a lot about playing golf swing to make sure the technique and get the fundamentals where I want them to be. And then my first event back coming to a place like this where I can literally just get straight into golf mode, just playing golf shots, it just kind of fit right into my wheelhouse."
Rory McIlroy tends to be low-key in his press conferences these days, at least when talking about his game. Perhaps that's a product of two wins in more than two years now, something he'll want to put right in 2019.
Asked to talk through his time off, McIlroy said he'd put the clubs away for three weeks. "Everything feels okay," was the bottom line of the self-assessment and when asked about the course and conditions, he said his aim was to "hang in there... and see where I'm at."
"I really haven't touched a club" was the reply when Brooks Koepka was asked a similar question, even if he did confess to being in love with the game again and excited to play.
Dustin Johnson gave little away but all of these players did confirm the value of power at this par 73, indeed it was particularly interesting to hear first-timer Cameron Champ call conditions "soft." Perhaps that'll have perked up McIlroy.
