Honda Classic betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Billy Horschel at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 90/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Doc Redman at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Much like the Oman Open on the European Tour, the Honda Classic deserves a little more than it gets with this week's field. A tournament once won by Rory McIlroy at the expense of Tiger Woods now sees Tommy Fleetwood start as favourite, and for all that he's among the most popular players among the press and the die-hards, that's because he's nice. Nice doesn't necessary do it for sponsors.

Of course, Brooks Koepka is here too - perhaps he'll start a war of wins with Patrick Reed - and a fresh Rickie Fowler is the pick of the past champions. Still, there's no escaping the absence of world-class players: Koepka is the only member of the world's top 10 to tee it up at PGA National this week, and that robs us viewers of the chance to see the very best take on one of the most fearsome closing stretches in golf.

Holes 15, 16 and 17, known as the Bear Trap (drink!), guarantee drama whoever is playing. They've served it up at Qualifying School in the past as well as in this event, most notably when Russell Henley won a four-way play-off at the chief expense of McIlroy, and again a year later when Padraig Harrington broke Daniel Berger's heart. All told, nine of the 13 renewals here, dating back to 2007, have needed the full 72 holes to be decided. Three of them, each since 2014, have required even more than that.

The challenge here is largely focused on coping with that trio of holes and what they represent. The 15th and 17th in particular are among the most dangerous par-threes on the PGA Tour, one foul tee-shot enough to cost a player a good round on a Thursday or Friday, and sometimes the tournament on a Sunday or, in Berger's case, Monday. So much of what is required can't really be measured: to win here is to exhibit skills of damage limitation, to hold your nerve, and to always be prepared to battle a stiff breeze.

With a huge grandstand around the 17th tee, the pressure level goes up another gear and what's striking about this tournament at this course is how well qualified almost every winner has been. There have been some massive shocks, such as Harrington, but they've come from players with major credentials. Harrington needs no introduction on that front, but look at Michael Thompson, who scrambled his way to victory here in 2013. He'd been second in the previous year's US Open, and he won this at the expense of a couple of former US Open winners in Geoff Ogilvy and Lucas Glover.

Ernie Els, Adam Scott, Justin Thomas and McIlroy himself were already major champions when they took this title, and Y.E. Yang would become one later in 2009. The Korean returned to finish second a couple of years later, having written his name into the history books in that famous PGA Championship. Others to have gone close here include subsequent US Open winner Gary Woodland, Masters champion Sergio Garcia, and Koepka himself.

So many of these excel in the wind and while the forecast this week is relatively calm, it doesn't take much more than 10mph to ask questions at an exposed layout with water everywhere. In a nutshell, while predicting the winner of this event has not necessarily been easy, there are ways to tie most of them together. Defending champion Keith Mitchell doesn't quite fit the bill, but at least he ticks another box: players who are much more comfortable on the east coast than west, who step up when the Tour finally lands in Florida. Henley is also one of those.

Much may well be written of the big prices at which some have won this title, but we're a shot or two away from the last six winners reading McIlroy, Harrington, Scott, Fowler, Thomas, Koepka. In a field which is weaker than it has been and therefore includes 25 players without significant course experience, don't be at all surprised if the winner comes from the head of the betting.

Fleetwood is a worthy favourite and his performance in Mexico might perhaps have had a rusty element to it. That said, I would want to be sure he's firing on all cylinders to back him as favourite to win his first stateside event, while the ongoing doubts around Koepka's form and fitness plus some unconvincing displays from Fowler make for a really likeable market in which BILLY HORSCHEL is the best bet.

There are no prizes for originality in siding with an in-form, east-coast-preferring Floridian who has been fourth and eighth here previously. In fact, my instinct was to overlook Horschel on the grounds that the market reflects how obvious he is, only to remind myself that he does tend to win when his chances appear exactly that.

Back in 2013, his form read 2-3-9 heading into the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and he duly obliged in brilliant fashion with a birdie at the final hole. The following year, he finished second in the Deutsche Bank Championship, this time making a mess of the last, and gained immediate compensation by winning the following two events and, with them, the FedEx Cup.

His victory in the Byron Nelson in 2017 is the only one which came out of the blue, but even then it came at a golf course he loves and on his favoured bermuda greens. Throw in another victory in the reformatted Zurich Classic alongside Scott Piercy, and we know full well by now that Horschel is both a player to follow while hot, and one who comes alive under certain conditions.

Being back in Florida on the back of top-10 finishes in Arizona and Mexico is perfect, but what really seals the deal is that Horschel's long-game appears to have come around to complement some of the most improved putting stats around.

Fourth here in 2017 when ranked 52nd in putting and eighth a year earlier when ranked 65th, it will have frustrated Horschel that when he putted brilliantly at the course in 2019, it came at a time when his driving and approach play was nowhere near good enough.

Ball-striking has very much been his strength over the years, and it's powered all of his victories. He was second in greens hit for his first win, second and first for the next two, and fifth in the Nelson when he beat Jason Day in a play-off.

And yet since leading the field in greens hit to finish runner-up in the 2018 TOUR Championship, Horschel has struggled to set up the required opportunities. That changed last week, when he led the field in driving accuracy and ranked second in greens, hitting 34 from 36 over the weekend and producing strokes-gained approach numbers to match.

Timing is everything with Horschel, and he looks to have produced the ideal preparation for his return home to Florida. With career-best strokes-gained putting figures waiting to marry up with a returning long-game, and some major form to back up the evidence that this is a good test for him, I find him impossible to overlook.

SUNGJAE IM is another who is expected to benefit from a return to the east coast and I'm excited about his prospects.

The Korean youngster carded a second-round 64 here a year ago to take the halfway lead, and while the wheels came off on Saturday it was the first step in an excellent run which saw him finish third at Bay Hill and fourth in the Valspar.

His missed cut at Riviera a fortnight ago might have helped boost the price a little, and it isn't something to dwell on. Im would've made the weekend had he made four instead of five at the last, or had he not missed a couple of very short putts, and he'll be glad to get away from those poa annua greens and onto bermuda.

Last week he got the chance to put it behind him in Mexico, where his trademark accuracy from the tee was on display as one very bad round with the putter hid an otherwise solid performance. It's one I firmly expect him to leave behind here and he has the temperament to deal with the pressurised environment in a way he failed to over the weekend in 2019.

Since then, Im has produced a brilliant display in the Presidents Cup, in tough, windy, major-like conditions, and following Viktor Hovland's success in Puerto Rico he could just be the next stud to get off the mark.

Returning to the theme of major winners going particularly well here, perhaps SHANE LOWRY can emulate his practice partner and win for the second time in the US.

Lowry of course won the Open Championship last year, following in Harrington's footsteps, and he's also gone close to winning a US Open at Oakmont. Having also landed a World Golf Championship, he's among the most qualified contenders here if we're looking for a player to step up and hit the shots on that brutal closing stretch.

Two visits so far haven't marked him down as a surefire winner of the Honda Classic, but he was in miserable form ahead of 49th place in 2018, while his 2016 debut saw him open with a round of 67 to sit fifth.

"Went on to Pebble Beach and didn't really struggle on the greens but I'm back here this week and very tough golf course," he said at the time. "(It's) a golf course I actually like. It's my first time here and hopefully I can keep it going for the weekend."

While he failed to do so, falling down the leaderboard, Lowry still did enough to suggest this is a good course for him and he returns a much more qualified player. His form to start the year reads 2-MC-11-13-29 and he's hitting greens, which is a really good starting point for one with such magnificent touch around them.

Indeed Lowry ranked fourth in scrambling last week as he made his return from a short break in Mexico, where he improved massively on a poor debut a year earlier. With his wind credentials as good as anyone here, and having been based in Florida before returning home to Ireland, he has plenty in his favour - and he looks a very good price, too.

Like everyone, I like the look of Daniel Berger here but he's awfully short in the betting. A winner here as a junior, he was unfortunate not to double up as a professional on what was his course debut, but four subsequent visits have been less promising and I can't believe he's suddenly got an equal chance to a player of Im's potential or Lowry's class.

Harris English is more appealing at 66/1 having again topped the greens-in-regulation stats when inside the top 20 in Phoenix. Like Berger, he contended here on his debut once upon a time and this talented 30-year-old has his game back in excellent health. He's from Georgia, loves bermuda, and was the last name off the shortlist.

However, RUSSELL HENLEY rates better value at 90/1, or 80/1 if you want to grab an extra place.

Granted, it's not quite the 300/1 at which he won this title in 2014, but there's no McIlroy to beat either and Henley's preparation has been better this time.

While it was a promising second round at Riviera which hinted at his shock success six years ago, this time he arrives having played really well throughout the Genesis Open, falling to 14th after a poor stretch midway through his final round.

That represents his best effort by some distance in LA, and with wins in Houston and Florida to his name, plus a golfing education in Georgia, everything points to an improvement in fortunes now returned to his favoured east coast.

Henley has backed up his victory here, missing just one cut in seven appearances, and sitting third at halfway a couple of years ago. In 2019, he finished 20th on the back of 44th at Riviera, and he'd have to wait until July to better that performance. Regardless of the overall health of his game, he's tended to find something here at PGA National, scene of his standout victory to date.

There are of course reasons he's as big as he is, notably a run of three missed cuts prior to Riviera along with the fact he isn't putting as well as he once did. However, they're mitigated by some quality approach play last time, and the possibility that he improves on these greens.

At the prices, Henley stands out at a course where the same names often pop up in the mix.

Others on what was for once a short shortlist include Charl Schwartzel, who was in generally dire form when 16th here last year albeit he'd improved a week earlier in Puerto Rico. The South African has won on the PGA Tour in Florida as well as at Augusta, and he has two top-fives to go with a couple of missed cuts since returning from injury.

With some experimental gear in his bag he's a hard one to weigh up and so is Sam Burns, another I expect to improve for the move east. He's got a top-10 finish at the course from just two visits but I'd be a little worried whenever he stands over an approach shot here and the price looks about right.

Instead, at a course where a straightforward fairways-and-greens approach is rewarded, it's worth chancing DOC REDMAN.

Winner of the US Amateur in 2017, Redman has been quietly impressive since turning professional, doing enough last year to earn his full PGA Tour card without quite making headlines in the same way as Hovland, Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff.

He's not as explosive a talent as any of those, but he does have a bright future and it's built on quality ball-striking. In fact, he's gained strokes off the tee and with his approach shots on all five starts in 2020, ranking 12th in driving accuracy and 28th in greens hit for the season.

Born in North Carolina and educated at Clemson, Redman might just find the required putting improvement now back in Florida and he even boasts a little flourish of major form having done really well to finish 20th at Portrush last year, having qualified with second place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

That's his only top-10 finish to date on the PGA Tour, but he's had relatively few chances under the sort of conditions which ought to suit him best. Finishes of 13th in Houston and 23rd in the RSM Classic are promising and if he can putt as he did in either event, which is now possible, his long-game is good enough to get him in the mix.

Posted at 1045 GMT on 25/02/20

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