CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek: Final round preview and tips

Recommended bets

3pts Russell Henley to win the CJ Cup at 7/4

2pts Justin Thomas to win his three-ball at 6/4

1.5pts Jason Day to win his three-ball at 9/4

0.5pt double Thomas and Day at 7.13/1

We’re through 54 holes at this weeks CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek and so far the Tom Fazio design has lived up to my expectations.

The course, which will be used for the event for this year only, has proven to be the perfect test in that if your game is ‘on’ you can attack pins and make birdies. For those however who have been struggling to find fairways or with their approach game, they have found themselves the wrong side of pins and with fast, undulating greens reminiscent of Augusta, that spells disaster.

The player who has handled the challenge the best and sits at he top of the pile through three rounds on 15 under is RUSSELL HENLEY, and this proven PGA Tour winner is fancied to convert a three-shot lead.

For those who have been following the Tour closely since its resumption in June, Henley’s position on the leaderboard will not be a huge surprise as he has only missed one cut in his nine starts prior to this week in a run that has seen him post three top-10 finishes.

The difference this week though is that the club which has no doubt caused him sleepless nights over the last couple of years, the putter, has returned to its former glories and he sits first for the week in strokes-gained: putting. Add that to ninth in approach play, 10th off the tee and 11th from tee-to-green and it's easy to see why he's been able to build a commanding advantage.

Henley, whose most recent of three PGA Tour victories came more than three years ago in Houston, has won once from the front before when he memorably led the field a merry dance on his full PGA Tour debut at the Sony Open back in 2013, and he has that kind of glint in his eye again this week. This looks a culmination of a great summer's play and he will be very hard to beat. I’m happy to take the standout 7/4 or general 13/8 available.

If Henley is to be beaten, the standout candidate to overhaul him is Xander Schauffele, who gave up a big lead of his own on Saturday and now plays predator - a position from which he's been dangerous in the past.

Schauffele showed clear frustration at the pace of play which led to another five-and-a-half hour round, and also joked that his poor play on day three was all part of his masterplan to get himself in to a position he is comfortable in, as all four of his PGA Tour wins to date have come when he was behind going in to Sunday. By contrast, he's yet to convert from the front.

Comfortable territory then for the Californian, however since his hot first nine on Friday he has made only three birdies and is one-over for his last 27 holes and a lack of fairways appears to have caught up with him. At 65th for the week in Driving Accuracy, he has struggled to find any control with his approach shots on a course where the greens are getting firmer by the day and if he is to produce one of his trademark Sunday comebacks he will need to sort his driver out.

Of the others on 12-under, Jason Kokrak - who is an MGM ambassador and has played here more than 20 times as a result - has put his course knowledge to great use and this normally suspect putter sits second for the week with the flat stick. Still looking for his first win on Tour though it is hard to fancy him with any great confidence. Similarly it would also be a big ask for Talor Gooch or Lanto Griffin to land their first or second wins respectively in this company.

On that basis it may just be that if Schauffele is unable to arrest his poor driving the biggest challenge to Henley comes in the shape of a charge from one of those on 10-under, which further underlines why prices upwards of 6/4 appear more than fair.

With the exertions of last week's win at Wentworth and the subsequent travelling looking to me like they have caught up with Tyrrell Hatton this leaves Jason Day and Justin Thomas and both could well get themselves in the picture on Sunday.

Day, who has a great record on Fazio courses as well as at Augusta, has clearly taken to the layout. First in strokes-gained: tee-to-green for the week to date and fourth in approach play, if he can warm up what has been a cold putter then a low one is a distinct possibility.

Thomas meanwhile did this column a big favour when landing the WGC FedEx St Jude from off the pace earlier in the summer and it is not a huge stretch to see the defending and two-time CJ Cup champion producing something of the same ilk today.

Having sided with Day pre-tournament I would be delighted to see him come through and pinch the trophy however the problem for both him and Thomas is that they need help from Henley, help which to be frank doesn't look like arriving, and anything sub-70 from the leader should put him out of their reach.

Day tees off at 19.16 UK time alongside Schauffele and Kokrak and with my concerns around his playing partners noted earlier I am happy to take the standout 9/4 or general 2/1 on the Aussie to win his three-ball, which looks good value.

Thomas meanwhile will be alongside Collin Morikawa and Hatton when they get underway in the previous group and with Hatton looking clearly jaded, odds-against prices on the favourite appear fair. Thomas has played really well over the last 36 holes - better than both his playing partners - and there's no reason to think his momentum will be halted.

He's 6/4 in a place which is a smashing bet. Doubling him with Day pays north of 6/1 with most firms and can provide a supplementary interest alongside a decent go at the leader and favourite, whose prospects of holding firm look stronger than the odds imply.

Posted at 1000 BST on 18/10/20

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