English Championship final-round betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

2pts Rasmus Hojgaard to finish in the top 10 at 7/4

1pt Ryan Fox to finish in the top five at 5/2

If we thought the start of the Forest of Arden track was simple enough, I'm not sure what to make of the opening holes at Hanbury Manor. Lee Westwood remembers this course from 30 years ago - longer, softer and more rough - and perhaps they should have gone back in time in design for this week. A driveable par-four which is playing to 3.50, a simple downhill par-five which is easier still, and a wedge approach to the third equal make for the most gentle of introductions, and we've seen several drives on the first leave tap-in eagle putts.

Followers of Ben Coley's preview will be hoping Sullivan finds more of that over the final round to land the headline selection and while there are 14 players within three shots of second place, they languish five shots and upwards off the lead and he has virtually destroyed any win market.

Sullivan would have been ruing the cessation of play after Qatar, where a 21st finish continued a good set of desert figures, but has been playing well since resumption with a T4 at Close House followed by a T41 in Birmingham, ruined by a poor final round. Clearly capable on linksy-type courses, he has that form at Morocco, Portugal and at the KLM that all suggests the final round set-up won't be a bother. It has been nearly five years since his last couple of Sunday outings in the final two-ball but he sauntered clear in Portugal before losing by a shot to Rory McIlroy in Dubai, all plenty good enough to get the job done.

I tweeted a bet on Brandon Stone during Friday's second round and was happy to hear him say after that conditions were 'right up my alley'. Humid, open and with a touch of breeze suits the South African perfectly and, as a winner on the Scottish links with form in Portugal and China he had every chance to avenge that play-off loss in Oman where he did nothing wrong but come across a demon putter on the day.

During an on-course interview in the third round, he stated how much he is loving it here and there's no doubt his skins bet with playing partner and friend Jamie Donaldson managed to focus him that bit extra, as shown on great up-and-down saves on the eighth and 11th. He seemed to stall in front, hitting a bit of a wall on the back-nine and a bogey on 14 was not pretty despite it being his first dropped shot in 27 holes.

It led to some pretty average play after and bounces seemed to result in complete opposite outcomes to those of the current leader. He now finds himself out of the final group and going on his record as a momentum player, this may affect his outright win chance - although his post-round interview was tremendously upbeat.

If anyone wanted a cracking formline, at the end of the third round of last year's Portugal Masters Stone led by two from Dean Burmester with eventual winner Steven Brown in fourth. This is the same tournament Sullivan won by nine shots in 2015 and the low-scoring conditions, with little in the way of serious punishment, seem to have brought out the best in this quartet once more.

Brown was playing excellent golf and was bogey-free for 30 holes until possibly realising he was in second place. His recovery birdie on the final hole was an impressive show of character and he is playing this course extremely well. It will be interesting to see just how well that form correlates by the close of play and he is by no means a bit-part here, though not one I could confidently rely on.

Neither Stone nor Nicolas Colsaerts will be fearing next week's test at Celtic Manor and the Belgian's play this week strongly suggests he is coming right, though he may need that extra length and the fourth par-five to be at his best. The same might be said of Stone's compatriot Burmester and, while I am not sure how to exploit it, it is interesting to note that he has played the front nine in a combined three-under and the back nine in 12-under. Exchange fingers at the ready if he is within a couple of the leader around the turn, though it must be said Sullivan's play from the 10th has been better still.

With the vast majority of the chasers hiding nothing in their form, it appears that any could win on their day. Should Sullivan fail to capitalise take your pick, although expect a better showing from future superstar RASMUS HOJGAARD while Adrian Otaegui would perhaps be the one to side with in a play-off, his two victories on tour coming in matchplay events.

Talking of the Danish teenager, his two-ball alongside equally promising Min Woo Lee would be the viewing highlight of the final-day pairings and, possibly encouraged by the potential for these two power-packed youngsters to feed off each other, I am taking the winner of the Mauritius Open to grab another place on the front page.

Ranking fourth for strokes gained off-the-tee and 20th for approach so far this year, Hojgaard has also performed creditably in both over the last 36 holes, all following a runner-up at Close House and a disappointing final round when sixth last week in Birmingham. It may be churlish to say 'disappointing' but the 19-year-old simply could not hole a thing last Sunday and his race was run by the time a double-bogey spoiled the card just three from home and he'll be looking for a much better display even if the bird has flown.

Having birdied the first couple on each day so far, it appears he just needs to overcome the sixth hole (bogey each day) to improve his position. With a top-class iron game, I would expect him to better any daily average score and, with a few in front that may be chasing too hard, it is easy to envisage this natural talent easing his way to the third top-ten of the current season at a fair 7/4.

For the only other wager I am happy to concentrate on still-improving New Zealander, RYAN FOX.

Having always been a fan of the son of star rugby player Grant, he was closely followed for his two wins on the Challenge Tour and it surprises me to see he has only one main tour victory to his name (winning a match play event, beating Otaegui in the final). Given his lack of play during the lockdown and that he has had to travel and stay over here for a number of weeks, his excellent return can be upgraded and a lucrative few weeks may follow.

With an impressive eighth and 15th so far on this tour of England, the noteworthy stat as far as this final round is concerned is that he is one of the best finishers on the circuit. After closing 68s at Close House and Forest of Arden, Saturday's third-round 66 sets him up nicely for payday.

Indeed, with all his last five Sunday rounds being 68 or better he has moved forward up the board on a consistent and reliable basis. Currently 10th and far enough away from the pressure, he is only two shots off third place and he is worth a shot at a top-five finish at around 5/2, his powerhouse game capable of setting up a handful of eagle looks at this point-and-shoot golf course.

Posted at 1910 BST on 08/08/20

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