Workday Charity Open: PGA Tour in-play betting preview and tips

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2pts Rickie Fowler to finish in the top five at 100/30

We’ve reached the 54-hole stage at the ‘one-off’ Workday Charity Open, and sat at the top of the tree there is an ominous figure as far as the remainder of the field go in the shape of Justin Thomas.

Thomas has looked imperious through the first three rounds, going bogey free to post 16-under, and he holds a two-shot lead over Viktor Hovland, with 36-hole leader Collin Morikawa a further shot back.

With final round tee-times brought forward due to the threat of bad weather, players will go off in three-balls on Sunday - meaning Thomas will have both of these two young stars of the game for company. It will be fascinating to see how they go about the challenge of taking the world number five down.

Thomas, who leads the field from tee to green this week, has just about as good a record as there is in the current game when holding the 54-hole lead as he has converted on eight out of 12 occasions on the PGA Tour. As such, those who followed Ben Coley’s pre-tournament advice to row in with him will rightly feel confident.

Looking at the event now, while a best price odds of 4/6 going in to the final round seem perfectly reasonable for Thomas and he is undoubtedly the most likely winner, there are a few reasons why I wouldn’t be racing to back him this morning.

Firstly, although his record with the lead is excellent, there will be the spectre of his last such effort in Mexico in February looming over him. On that occasion Thomas opened up with rounds of 67, 66 and 65 before capitulating with a final-round 73 and this is something that will surely be in the back of his mind.

Secondly of course there is the company he will be keeping on Sunday in the form of arguably the game's two brightest young stars, Hovland and Morikawa.

Hovland, like Thomas has been sublime from tee to green this week and it is perhaps only a slightly cool putter that prevents him from being at the top of the tree at this stage. Morikawa conversely has used a combination of his usual stellar long game and an unusually warm putter to find himself in the mix. He gained over five strokes on the greens over the first two days, however inevitably the putter started to falter on Saturday and so too did his long-game for a time.

Both these players have the ability to produce the round which looks like it will be required to topple Thomas, something like the 64 fired by Patrick Cantlay on the final day of the last tournament to be held here just over a year ago.

On which note, it naturally makes sense to look at the record of 54-hole leaders over recent years at the Memorial Tournament, the regular event hosted at Muirfield Village, and if we do so we will so that only four of the last 10 leaders after Saturday have gone on to lift the trophy. Thomas ought to make it one from one in this unique event, but if you're not on already, there's no real temptation to take the risk at 4/6.

Behind the final three-ball there are of course others who will fancy their chances of making a run including Kevin Streelman, who has played well here over the years, however you would have to think the big challenge to Thomas will come from the final group with my preference of the two being for Hovland.

For a bet, I will turn my attention elsewhere and to the quietly improving form of Rickie Fowler.

In a quest to get his game to the next level the former Players Champion turned to a new swing coach, John Tillery, at the back end of last year and as a result he has been going through something of a transitional period so far in 2020.

By all accounts though a lot of hard work was done in lockdown and after a couple of missed cuts upon return the dividends started to show with a 12th place finish last week in Detroit.

Building further on this, after a sluggish opening 72 on Thursday, Fowler has posted rounds of 69 and 66 over the past two days, improving in pretty much all key departments of his game as the week has gone on.

Currently sat in a tie for eighth and seven shots back of Thomas, barring something remarkable a win for Fowler here is highly unlikely, however as someone who has a history over the years of posting a strong run from of the pace when the pressure is off on a Sunday he looks ideally positioned to make up further ground.

Fowler currently sits five shots out of second place and only two shots out of fourth and with several players between him and the final group who either have a lack of experience in this situation or who have been known to be slightly suspect on ‘pay day’, I see every opportunity for him to climb the leaderboard and secure a top-five finish at 100/30.

Posted at 0910 BST on 12/07/20

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