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Golf preview: US Open round two three-ball betting tips
Ben Coley landed a 10/1 winning treble on day one of the. US Open, and now turns his attention to Friday's second round and what looks a wide-open tournament.
Golf betting tips: US Open round two
2pts Si Woo Kim to win his three-ball at 6/4 (General)
1pt double Si Woo Kim and Stewart Cink at 4.93/1 (bet365)
So far, so good when it comes to the US Open and the sort of test provided by this renovated version of The Country Club. Long enough to test the modern golfer, not so long as to remove half of them from calculations. Rough thick enough to punish, but not so thick as to deny all hope of a recovery shot. Greens fast, but not so fast as to make fools of the people who are better at this confounding game than the rest of us are.
It was a fabulous first day, not just because of what we saw, but because of what it promised. Friday's second round may not be much harder, not if overnight rain has arrived to take the edge off, but come the weekend it seems certain we'll see something very difficult and potentially very special. Brookline appears to be a grown-up US Open course which offers opportunities rather than freebies, and provides punishment rather than ridicule. The USGA must be delighted with how things have started.
The leaderboard we have is suitably varied. It was noticeable on Thursday evening that US Open winners Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose and Gary Woodland were among the better of the late starters, along with one of the sport's most complete players in Matt Fitzpatrick. Rory McIlroy had earlier posted a three-under 67 but with golfers around him who go about things very differently, like Hayden Buckley and Joel Dahmen. There were world-class operators who solved the puzzle, but this leaderboard was cramped, packed full of lesser lights who perhaps found that the absence of that sharp, Shinnecock-style edge had helped them to even enjoy it a little.
McIlroy deserves favouritism but potential winners remain in the dozens. You'll quite understandably see statistics about the score typically needed to remain in a US Open after round one, or how winners came from the top x, y or z, but seldom has a leaderboard been this compressed and that factor is significant. Jordan Spieth for instance finds himself outside the top 50, facing a fight to make the cut – but he is just six behind the leader. Anyone who can feasibly get back to level par at some stage in the tournament surely remains in it for now.
By far the most intriguing option, indeed the only one I've strongly considered in the outright betting, has to be Johnson. Two-under and alongside Fitzpatrick, it's a little surprising that he's not been quickly re-factored – that is to say, the way he and Fitzpatrick were assessed pre-tournament largely remains in place. The Englishman has been the better player in 2022 (and for a good deal of 2021), and that quite rightly was deemed more relevant than their respective ceilings.
However, you could argue Johnson's opening round entitles him to be treated with more respect. Only in this major has he been a bigger price than Fitzpatrick from the start, and if there's nothing between them at halfway, bookmakers will surely be inclined to reassess. My only reluctance comes from the fact Johnson had a great day on and around the greens, which does suggest a little more evidence is needed.
What's more certain is that we've a lot of world-class players off to good starts. McIlroy, Johnson, Fitzpatrick, Thomas, Woodland, Rose, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa and Jason Kokrak are all under-par. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland are all level. And the leader, Adam Hadwin, is certainly no mug. With no sign of the PGA Championship's clear draw bias, you'll rarely see a tournament in which so many big names built strong foundations.
What's the best bet for Friday's second round?
Thursday's three-ball treble, a winner at upwards of 10/1, is just north of 8/1 for a repeat and some will be happy to go in again. There's no doubt it was fortunate to land, however, and I'm inclined to look elsewhere for a small double on SI WOO KIM and STEWART CINK.
Kim shot 76 and gave playing partner David Lingmerth half a shot per hole in round one, but they're now 6/4 and 2/1 respectively which looks quite a big reaction to a day which saw them hit the ball similarly, only for the Swede to make a load of putts and Kim make next to nothing. Lingmerth led the field, gaining almost five strokes, whereas Kim ranked 141st among 156 players.
Kim is entitled to be a good deal shorter on all known form and with Sepp Straka having been very poor again, and Kim very much the type of character who could flip those numbers to turn a 76 into a 67, he might well show us who the best player in the group is. Lingmerth could be one good round from landing us a nice winner, but we have to judge what's in front of us and he looks much too short for this three-ball with no guarantee he gets anywhere close to Thursday's score.
Cink meanwhile shared the spoils with Francesco Molinari, and it'll be a surprise if Laird Shepherd can muscle in this evening. Choosing between the other two isn't straightforward given Molinari's improved form lately, but Cink had been on course to win this three-ball quite convincingly until taking eight at the eighth hole, the easiest on the course.
That was their 17th having started at the 10th and Cink got into a real mess from a good position, having been 90 yards away and in the fairway in two. It was careless and costly, but he bounced back with a quality approach to set up birdie at the last, and based on the evidence of the other 16 holes had played far better than Molinari for the most part. In what looks a match, odds-against about the American rates decent value.
If there is a bet at a bigger price it might be James Piot at 9/1 against Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa, as these three all shot 69 in round one and Piot's performance was no fluke because he struck the ball really well, missed only four greens, and looked more comfortable than we might've expected.
For similar reasons he's worth considering for a top-20 finish at inflated odds for one currently residing in the top 20, but again that bunched nature isn't lost on me. Piot is 14th but two shots off 42nd and one good round of ball-striking doesn't change the fact it's very early days in a career whose direction could hardly be less certain.
You could say the same about the outcome of this fabulous championship after an engrossing first day.
Posted at 0755 BST on 17/06/22
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