Golf player analysis: Ben Coley's five to follow in the FedExCup Fall

Still, there are some battles you can win, others you can't. This is now an attempt to identify players to follow in the FedExCup Fall. Or should that be FedExCupFall?

The basics

If you know that there are two t's in Matthieu Pavon, that Christiaan Bezuidenhout got 300 FedEx Cup points but the full winner's cheque when he finished second in the AmEx, that Gutschewski's son is probably better than Tiger's and that the Cognizant will always be the Honda, you can skip this part. If you're across Nick Dunlap's litigation, the protests from former members of Team Finau, and what a Special Temporary Member is, chances are you know what you're doing.

If you don't, it may help to know that as of 2023, only the top 70 in the FedEx C... FedExCup standings make the Playoffs. Previously, the number had been 125, and the basic premise was that those 126th and below had lost their cards. In reality, this was never the case – the PGA Tour has more exemptions than Panama's taxation framework – and the only guarantee was that player 126 wouldn't make the Playoffs. Even that turned out not to be a guarantee.

Anyway, the number is now 70, which then becomes 50 after the FedEx St Jude Championship. In some ways, this is the most significant cut-off, because those 50 get all sorts of perks for the following year, including eligibility for all full-field and Signature events. Last year, Hideki Matsuyama was 49th, and look at him now.

Let's skip past the final two events of the season, during which those 50 battle it out for yet more riches, concluding in the absurd TOUR Championship. After they're done, so begins the FedExCup Fall, where the idea is that players who finished 51st and below pick up where they left off. Come the end of eight more events, those positioned 51st-60th will earn starts in two Signature Events. More importantly, the top 125 will earn full PGA Tour cards for 2025.

One caveat is needed at this point: if you're ranked 1st-50th, you can still play, but you don't earn FedExCup points. Last year, Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim and Collin Morikawa all won tournaments during this period of the season. That's three tournaments from seven won by players who didn't have points to worry about. For those taking notes, the others were ranked as follows: Luke List 118th, Erik van Rooyen 125th, Camilo Villegas 147th, Ludvig Aberg 96th.

You traditionalists who remember that the cards drama happened at the Wyndham, well that's now the RSM Classic in November. After that, players who lose their status can go to Qualifying School where five (low-category) cards are on offer or, perhaps more likely, rely on some sort of status which they'll still have. That, or it's down to the Korn Ferry Tour.

Now, imagine how good this would all be if these lines were absolute – if the player in 61st could not simply be invited to those Signature Events, and the player in 126th had two choices: Q School or the Korn Ferry Tour. That would be much, much better. It will never ever happen.

Nevertheless, Aberg's win, in the final event, technically was the reason he got to play Pebble Beach (runner-up) and Riviera (19th). There is a lot up for grabs and there aren't all that many players who can be sure of invitations to those big events when they come around early next year.

The schedule

There are eight events remaining, with a break between the first (formerly known as the Fortinet, before which it was the Safeway) and the second due to the Presidents Cup.

The Black Desert Championship is a new event in Utah, where you'd think Finau might play given his local ties. In an oh-so-very-PGA Tour bit of Googling, I have only been able to confirm that Jay Don Blake will play. Yes, that Jay Don Blake. He'll be making his 500th PGA Tour start.

Otherwise, it's as you were from last year, with another week off between Japan (ZOZO) and Mexico (WWT). All courses are unchanged. It will be interesting to see which defending champions turn up, with two of the most high profile having had busy years including the Olympics and still to feature the Presidents Cup.

• Procore Championship (Sep 12-15)
  Silverado Resort
• Sanderson Farms Championship (Oct 3-6)
  Country Club of Jackson
• Black Desert Championship (Oct 10-13)
  Black Desert Resort Golf Course
• Shriners Children's Open (Oct 17-20)
  TPC Summerlin
• ZOZO Championship (Oct 24-27)
  Accordia Golf
• World Wide Technology Championship (Nov 7-10)
  El Cardonal at Diamante
• Butterfield Bermuda Championship (Nov 14-17)
  Port Royal Golf Course
• The RSM Classic (Nov 21-24)
  Sea Island Golf Club

The standings

Tom Kim occupies 51st place in the standings having missed out on the BMW Championship after a brutal finish at Southwind. That's rather been the story of the last couple of months for Kim, ever since he lost the Travelers in a play-off. Given his profile and world ranking, however, starts in Signature Events aren't going to be a problem. Surely, though, he goes to Summerlin for the hat-trick bid.

Justin Rose (55th in FedExCup points, 37th in the world) has more to worry about and you feel he's going to need to be playing in all the best events in 2025 if he's to go one more time in the Ryder Cup. How he'll balance that desire with the chance to earn actual Ryder Cup points in Europe, we will see, but he does have money in the bank in the Race to Dubai and is guaranteed starts in the final two events should he want them. He goes to Wentworth in a few weeks.

At 67th, Jordan Spieth is only going to drop further down the rankings after long-overdue wrist surgery. That perhaps tells you how concerned big names really are about getting into the big tournaments. Spieth will absolutely be at Pebble Beach and Riviera providing he's recovered in time, rendering his FedExCup position virtually meaningless.

Victor Perez, Nicolai Hojgaard, Harry Hall and Matt Wallace are other Europeans for whom the Ryder Cup is a big priority (all are with Rose at Wentworth) while Rickie Fowler (108th) is another sleeping giant for whom these events take on extra significance. He has strong form in Japan but will need to improve, as will Daniel Berger from 140th as his rehabilitation continues to splutter.

Other interesting names include Michael Thorbjornsen, who will be keen to avoid starting his first full year as a professional out on the Korn Ferry Tour, while Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland will surely start to see their opportunities dry up if unable to improve. Woodland deserves more time, but it's an important stretch for him regardless, albeit his closeness to one Tiger Woods may result in a Riviera return.

Germany's Matti Schmid (also due to play at Wentworth) is the man on the bubble, technically speaking, though Hayden Springer is on an identical 283 points. For reference, you get 300 for finishing solo second. These are players for whom this final stretch really is important.

Five to follow

Min Woo Lee

Last year, Min Woo Lee was not able to take part except for when playing the ZOZO on an invite, because he wasn't yet a full PGA Tour member, despite having his status wrapped up for 2025 having been fifth in the US Open. Nope, me neither.

Anyway, this time you'd have to expect him to turn up for at least a couple despite balancing DP World Tour priorities. If he is there for the Procore Championship (two weeks prior to the Presidents Cup in Canada, so would make sense and he isn't playing the BMW PGA) he'll begin the tournament as the man in 60th, meaning he's on one of the bubble lines.

Lee hasn't necessarily achieved what many would've anticipated this year, but he's missed just two non-major cuts in 13 starts, has twice been second, and managed top-30 finishes in the Masters, the PGA Championship, the US Open and the Olympics, before another to sign off at Southwind.

Down in grade, he ought to be a massive threat, as evidenced by two runner-up finishes in just nine appearances below major/Signature/Playoff level.

The fact that the ZOZO is the only one of these events he's played before makes that potentially the best fit, and winning it would allow him to enjoy a week off with his schedule for 2025 sorted out, before then going to contest the final two events on the Race to Dubai.

I make it sound so simple, don't I, but watch for him in the Sanderson Farms first and possibly even the event at Silverado before that. Certainly, I won't be at all surprised if business has been taken care of by the time that return to Japan comes around.

Chan Kim

He's 35 next year so no young pup making his way, but Chan Kim is a serious talent whose first full year on the PGA Tour was packed with promise. Before that, when finally unleashed on the Korn Ferry Tour, he unsurprisingly won twice.

After a strong start which saw him finish 14th in the AmEx and eighth in Mexico, then matching those results in the spring at the Texas Open and Corales Puntacana, Kim struggled through May and June and was in need of a miracle that never came if he was to make it to the FedEx St Jude Championship.

However, results of 12-10-29-MC-12 over the final five events, often in spite of his putter, confirmed that his early-year form had returned and if he's able to pick up where he left off then a first win is very much a possibility. He'll love Summerlin, he's very comfortable out in Japan, a return to Mexico also looks appealing and he's won at altitude so Utah might be one for him, too.

Andrew Novak

The way the FedExCup works is that consistently solid results are lapped by spikes. Finish second and you get 300 points. Finish 18th six weeks running and you'll get 294 points. Players like Andrew Novak, whose best was seventh but who registered nine top-25s, suffer as a consequence.

Whether you think that's right or wrong, Novak was 22nd in strokes-gained total during the regular season, just ahead of Robert MacIntyre, just behind Billy Horschel. No, this isn't adjusted for field strength and flatters him somewhat, but equally true is that his lowly FedExCup ranking underplays the strength of his golf in 2024. As it happens he was also 22nd in adjusted scoring average.

Effectively dropping down in grade, it'll be interesting to see whether this rock-solid ball-striker can improve upon that best of seventh at the 3M Open. The fact that he's lacking form of note in these events should mean he continues to creep under the radar and if his putter warms up just a tad, he should feature on one or two leaderboards, perhaps on familiar, bermuda greens at the very end of the campaign.

Maverick McNealy

This is the form pick having been seventh in Canada, third in Detroit and then 12th in the FedEx St Jude Championship, where for a while he looked like doing enough to crack the top 50 and make it to the BMW.

Having missed six months of the 2023 season and taken time to find his game again, that would've been some achievement for McNealy, a former world amateur number one, and we really ought to expect him to kick on over the next year or so.

Yes, his approach play needs to improve (he's not produced a top-20 performance in two and a half years, shockingly), but he bombs it and makes a load of putts and, on today's PGA Tour, that can take you a very long way.

A longtime Las Vegas resident, Summerlin is familiar and he was 10th last time he played there. Never has he had a better chance than when second at Silverado, his record in Bermuda is solid, and while the course in Mexico will be new to him, it ought to suit. He boasts an excellent record in Mexico in general.

Clearly, McNealy's goal is to win, but the carrot of earning a place in the field at Pebble Beach isn't insignificant given his history there, and as a Californian, Riviera also holds special significance. The way he's been playing, a spot inside the 51-60 should be a formality.

JJ Spaun

If Keith Mitchell or Doug Ghim figures out putting they'll go very close but the final nod goes to Spaun, who like McNealy ended the regular season playing superb golf. Since taking 10th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Spaun has been just about the best iron player on the PGA Tour (well, except that guy) and eventually made it count with ninth and third to sign off.

With his driving also improved and his short-game generally OK, it's only going to take a decent putting week for Spaun to contend. He found five of those in his final six starts, too, so signs are overwhelmingly positive and the likely strength of these fields makes it a good time to capitalise.

Then we come to the schedule. He starts off in his home state where he was 11th last year and ninth in 2020. Following Silverado it's the SFC, where he has no particularly encouraging form, before Utah (has altitude form) and then Summerlin, where he's contended more than once, and a course he knows like the back of his hand.

Japan? Sixth last year. Mexico? Third but at El Camaleon and this one might be the worst fit (which probably means it's where he wins). Seventh on one try in Bermuda. Second, 13th, 15th and 16th at the RSM Classic. Playing like he is, Spaun ought to be among the second wave of the betting every week until Christmas, and by then might even have worked his way to something close to favouritism.

All of the above is caveated with the simple fact that we don't know which elite players will turn up and when. Judging by those wins for Aberg, Kim, Morikawa and Theegala last year, any world-class players in these weak fields should be afforded maximum respect.

Now have your say...

Who is your player to follow for the remainder of the PGA Tour season? Email benjamin.coley@sportinglife.com with a brief (I know, glass houses etc.) explanation and we'll publish a selection of them in the coming days. Feel free to include your twitter handle. I'm not calling it 'X', don't be ridiculous.