Ben Coley looks ahead to the final round of the PGA Championship, where Brooks Koepka goes in search of a fifth major.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship final round
2pts Viktor Hovland to win the PGA Championship at 7/2 (bet365)
2pts Mitchell and Scheffler to win their two-balls at 19/10 (General)
There's a familiar name at the top of the PGA Championship leaderboard after Brooks Koepka made his move on Saturday, and many will find the outcome straightforward from here. The four-time major champion will simply go and win number five, surpassing Rory McIlroy as the most successful golfer of this generation when it comes to the tournaments that matter most.
Koepka's third-round 66 was better than his second-round 66 and if you want to understand how superior he's been since a ho-hum start from the wrong side of the draw, consider this: there have only been three such scores this week, and he has two of them. Every aspect of his game has been very good.
If there was one player I was happy to overlook this week, it was Koepka. I felt that even taking into account his solid LIV Golf form and excellent Masters second, 18/1 fourth-favourite was the wrong place for him to be in the market. The outcome doesn't necessarily change that – Jon Rahm playing poorly doesn't mean he must've been a bad price – but I'm certainly guilty of having underestimated him.
Now trading at just below 6/4 on the exchanges and 5/4 generally with fixed-odds firms, his backers will be confident. Rightly so. The only real question mark is how much pressure he puts on himself; whether this really is the same player who made winning these look quite easy, or the one who since falling over the line at Bethpage has made the job look precisely as it in fact is: very difficult.
Koepka says he's learned lessons from Augusta, which might just have been all that was needed. He was hard on himself there, stating that he 'choked' when he was beaten by a generational talent in Rahm. Having missed out in the 2020 and 2021 PGA Championships when seemingly in position, I do wonder how he'll react if things don't go to plan early on. Unlike Augusta, there isn't a Rahm-shaped excuse here even if he didn't go searching for it publicly.
To Viktor go the spoils?
Competition this time comes from VIKTOR HOVLAND in the final group, with Corey Conners and DeChambeau up ahead and it's the Norwegian I'm happy to take.
Hovland remains the best player in the field from tee-to-green so far, even his maligned short-game holding up, while Conners has also enjoyed a good week in his weakest area and has putted best among the top four so far.
It feels right then to consider Hovland the big danger and at 7/2, just half a point shorter than yesterday when Scottie Scheffler headed the betting, he's got to be the bet. This is not to say he's as likely as Koepka to win the tournament because he isn't, but the gap between them is wider than it should be.
That may be partly reputational. Whereas Koepka is still considered a born winner who eats majors for breakfast, some clearly feel that Hovland, seven times a winner at the age of 25, is not. I don't see it that way at all and the fact that he's contended in each of the last two majors is a massive positive. Yet again, recent experience in the mix has proven a strong pointer.
It's what Koepka had when he first won the US Open and it's what ties so many major champions, from the obvious to those slightly less so, like Francesco Molinari, Danny Willett and Matt Fitzpatrick. Each of those Europeans had followed a similar path to Hovland and he could emulate them tonight if he continues to stripe his irons. So far, his round-by-round approach play rankings read 2-4-2.
As the weather cleared on Saturday evening, the main contenders for this title heading into the weekend remained: there were six before and the same six remain at the top of the betting, Koepka having taken over from Scheffler as favourite.
With Oak Hill now soaked, conditions should be far better for scoring today which I would argue is what the tournament needs. However it probably limits volatility and it's very hard to look below Justin Rose in the betting, the former US Open champion having tagged himself onto that sextet of potential champions.
McIlroy has the conditions he needs and I wonder if his draw alongside Michael Block could work out in his favour, as it did for Rose. Block is the people's champion this week, the PGA professional performing miracles to remain inside the top 10, and his loving-every-minute demeanour helped created a fabulous atmosphere in that pairing on Saturday.
From five behind, McIlroy may need to shoot the round of the week to win, and backers might want to consider just siding with him in the low round of the day market at 16/1. Surely he will need that if he's to end a nine-year wait and pass the likes of Koepka, Hovland, Conners, DeChambeau, Scheffler and Rose.
He can take heart from the way Justin Thomas stole this title a year ago, but on that day the final two groups were made up of players yet to even win on the PGA Tour. Koepka and Hovland are a different beast altogether and, straightforwardly, I expect one of them to be crowned PGA champion this evening.
Best two-ball bets for Sunday's final round
Before we get to that, a small treble on ADRIAN MERONK (1400), YANNIK PAUL (1410) and TONY FINAU (1420) provides a nice early interest at 9/2.
Meronk has a huge power edge over Pablo Larrazabal and, today especially, that could be key. The course is soft, the weather is set fair, and I'll be surprised if we don't get the lowest scoring average of the week.
Hopefully, officials see sense and push up the tees on the par-fives so we see the odd eagle putt and in any case, Larrazabal's driver was all over the place on Saturday. More of that and Meronk can oblige.
I was keen to oppose Callum Tarren in round three and will do so again, his overall form this year extremely poor. It wasn't a surprise to see him fall out of the reckoning and it'll take an almighty effort to go again, especially after the worst driving display in the field.
Paul, an in-form Ryder Cup hopeful operating at a higher level than Tarren throughout the season, played nicely and was better off the tee than he had been. His approach play remains high class and he's the sort of steady operator you want on-side in a two-ball like this, with Tarren liable to beat himself.
Finau can end a disappointing week on a high under ideal conditions. There's a chance Thomas Detry is running on empty having blown a big chance to win in Belgium last Sunday, which further adds to Finau's advantage.
I'm also taking prices of 2/1 and bigger about SIHWAN KIM (1340) beating Zach Johnson.
Kim has become a bit of an internet meme owing to his lowly LIV Golf finishes but he's no mug, as we saw in a second-round 68.
Johnson hasn't come close to that score yet so while obviously more consistent, under likely easier conditions today I can't resist the younger man, who remains the higher-ranked despite playing on the breakaway circuit with no world ranking points.
Johnson should be a marginal favourite here but he's awfully short at 1/2 which forces my hand. Kim has to be worth a small bet in a match that could be won with a mid-70s score.
Into the evening and the best value on the coupon is KEITH MITCHELL (1720) against Taylor Pendrith.
Pendrith did what we needed him to do yesterday and avoided disaster, beating Tarren as a result, but his long-game was very poor as it has been all week. By contrast, Mitchell was the very best driver in the field and in a battle of the big-hitters, the one who is also hitting the ball where he's looking is hard to resist at just a shade of odds-on.
Finally I'll take SCHEFFLER (1910) to continue his fightback and beat Rose, who has made a lot of putts this week but looks unconvincing off the tee. Scheffler endured a nightmare start to the third round but clawed his way back with a solid final 10 holes and knows he's not done with yet.
Hopefully, both he and McIlroy can make a run at the leaders and set up a thrilling back nine. Oak Hill has not exactly delivered this week, the weather playing a part in that, but at least the closing stretch offers up the sort of volatility which will keep us all tuned in until midnight.
Posted at 0940 BST on 21/05/23
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