Ben Coley's 55/1 tip Rickie Fowler leads the US Open, but a host of world-class challengers are stacked up in behind. Get his take on round three.
Golf betting tips: US Open round three
2pts Munoz and Stevens to win their two-balls at 13/8 (General)
2pts Wu and Finau to win their two-balls at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt four-fold Munoz, Stevens, Wu and Finau at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
After a record-breaking start to the tournament, only one thing about the US Open was certain: things would get tougher from there, and so it proved as Rickie Fowler ended the second round with a one-shot lead over Wyndham Clark.
With the sun breaking through and firming out fairways and greens, Fowler's afternoon 68 was carved during the most testing conditions so far and with the forecast promising more of the same, we should be in for a demanding weekend which begins, surely, with 11 potential winners of the tournament at the most.
Those 11 are all names from Tony Finau upwards and not even Finau, who burst into contention five years ago at Shinnecock after a huge draw bias on Saturday, will anticipate major movement from off the pace. LACC is going to firm up and become more and more difficult, but it's unlikely carnage awaits.
Scoring waves - 36-hole total averages
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) June 17, 2023
Early-Late: 144.58
Late-Early: 142.68
Nearly a 2-shot difference. #USOpen
At the head of the market is Rory McIlroy, now two behind after again playing superbly across holes one to nine, this time his back-nine. McIlroy is often wrongly criticised for not being able to play in tough conditions but there's little argument that a course which offers genuine birdie opportunities as frequently as this one suits him more.
Prices of 3/1 accurately reflect the fact that he is the most likely winner of the tournament as things stand and I would be much more inclined towards him than Fowler or Xander Schauffele, both at 4/1.
If the market underestimates any one of the front four it's arguably Clark, a recent winner on a championship layout, beating Schauffele to capture his first PGA Tour title. This however is a whole new experience for Clark and while his demeanour has been superb, breakthrough major champions are often those who've had a chance to feel what he will feel in the recent past.
Clark has all the tools to contend again and again at this level but to win at the first time of asking would be extraordinary and, with such quality around him and Scottie Scheffler not far behind, prices around the 7/1 mark can be left alone.
Scheffler is of course a threat and Harris English's ability to hang around when things get serious earns him respect at 25/1, but with strong pre-tournament interest courtesy of Fowler and Min Woo Lee, I'm happy to sit tight and see how things unfold when the final group heads out at an obscene 2340 BST.
Another record-setting day for @RickieFowler!
— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf) June 17, 2023
His Friday 68 is the @Lexus Top Performance of the Day. #LexusGolf pic.twitter.com/xO4X30e64C
Before all that, SAM STEVENS and SEBASTIAN MUNOZ look strong favourites in their respective two-balls.
Stevens is an improving PGA Tour rookie who carded an excellent round of 67 on Friday and can build on that against Maxwell Moldovan, part of a small group of amateurs who have done well to make the cut.
Moldovan started to feel the heat late on in round two, playing his final 12 holes in three-over despite finishing on the easier side, and his putter was the primary reason for him scraping through to the weekend.
Stevens can put his long-game advantage to use and so can Munoz against another amateur, Ben Carr.
Munoz ranks second in strokes-gained approach and has also been solid off the tee, only to struggle badly with putter. That looks to have been a bit of an issue on the LIV Golf circuit of late but his long-game has been reliable and it can sustain him as LACC begins to firm up, which should suit the Colombian.
Carr is the 40th-ranked men's amateur and it seems fair to expect him to struggle, not just in overall terms but when it comes to matching one of the best ball-strikers in the field so far.
Later on, it's tempting to side with Cam Smith at 7/4 to beat Scottie Scheffler, a big price on the face of it, but it seems virtually certain that Scheffler will continue to hit his ball well so we might be betting on how superior Smith will be on the greens, which is less appealing the more I think about it.
Instead, another double appeals, with DYLAN WU and TONY FINAU both fancied.
Finau ranks fifth in strokes-gained approach, a welcome return to form with his irons, and it's a similar story on the greens where he's gained over a shot per round having been struggling badly of late.
He kept himself in the tournament with two important par saves on holes 17 and 18 and we should know what we're getting with this habitual major contender who is eyeing an 11th top-10 finish in 29 appearances.
Charley Hoffman hails from San Diego and is one of many Californians enjoying things so far, but he's gone backwards from a similar halfway position in each of his last two US Open appearances and something similar likely awaits the veteran.
Wu arrived here off a solid top-25 at the Canadian Open and it's not long since he was 21st at the Wells Fargo Championship, played at a course which has correlated very well with LACC given that Clark, Schauffele and English were the 1-2-3 there and McIlroy and Fowler are both former winners.
Wu is something of a fairways-and-greens machine which will help as things get tougher, and he hung around nicely enough for 31st place at Torrey Pines two years ago.
Playing partner Ryutaro Nagaro is a longtime Japan Tour player who is yet to win out there and shot 79 in round two of his latest event. He's in very deep here and the 35-year-old looks to have been overestimated in the betting, if not by Paddy Power at 21/10 then certainly by Sky Bet at 6/5.
Wu should be a very strong favourite and on a tricky coupon, packed with hard-to-call pairings, these four favourites look solid. The four-fold pays just over 7/1 with Sky Bet and 6/1 generally.
Posted at 0820 BST on 17/06/23
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