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Golf betting tips: Tour Championship final round preview
Matt Cooper looks ahead to Sunday's action at the Tour Championship.
Golf betting tips: Tour Championship final round
2pts Sahith Theegala to beat Xander Schauffele in two-ball at 9/4 (General)
1pt Tom Hoge to beat Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Chris Kirk to beat Billy Horschel in their two-balls at 3.73/1 (bet365, William Hill, Betfred)
Since 2005 the winner of the Tour Championship has been awarded a sterling silver replica of the great Bobby Jones’ putter known as Calamity Jane. It’s a slightly odd prize given that Jones famously clung to his amateur status while the Tour Championship was then, and is now even more so, a flagrant celebration of professionalism. Moreover, since the introduction of starting strokes in 2019 “calamity” is a word many might consider appropriate in an entirely different sense.
It is, perhaps, critical to always remember that golf tournaments are not undertaken for the specific purposes of betting and, for all the increased links with bookmakers, the PGA Tour has absolutely no responsibility to ensure that those of us who like to have a punt are tickled on the tummy every week. So the fact that the new format makes the outright betting messy at best is really by the by.
What really matters is whether the notion of rewarding seasonal performance in the final event creates a spectacle worth watching.
If the Tour Championship worked a little like the drama-inducing running and shooting element of the modern pentathlon it might perhaps have a future. Alas, in reality, it often feels like we’re watching a chess tournament in which the also rans must play with nothing but pawns, the middle ranks have a rook, a knight or a bishop, the contenders have two of those pieces, and it is the leader alone who has them all (plus, of course, the queen) with which to attack the opposition king.
Were this a normal event Collin Morikawa would be leading at East Lake in Atlanta, Georgia on 17-under through 54 holes with Scottie Scheffler one back, Sahith Theegala three back and Adam Scott and Wyndham Clark six back. As it is, Scheffler leads on 26-under, Morikawa is five shots behind, Theegala nine in arrears and Xander Schauffele alone in fourth 10 shots adrift of the leader.
Scheffler is best price 1/14 to win, Morikawa 10/1, Schauffele 250/1 and Theegala 400/1. Schauffele did post a final round 62 last year, Scheffler has carded 73 on Sunday at East Lake and Morikawa’s last three fourth round scores there are 72-73-72. If Capricorn and Sagittarius are in Uranus there’s a chance for Schauffele, but we’ll look elsewhere.
Perhaps the most notable element of the tournament thus far has been the honesty of SAHITH THEEGALA who television cameras didn’t spot brushing the sand with his back stroke in a bunker on the third hole of the third round. He, however, owned up to the incident immediately and was penalised two shots.
“What are you going to do? Take the two shots on the chin and just roll with it,” he said afterwards, almost as if he, like so many this weekend, had the Gallagher brothers on his mind. “Whatever,” he added, maintaining the theme. “Two shots. I feel good about it. I think it was a penalty. I think I moved sand.” Would he have slept well had he not drawn attention to the truth, he was asked. “Oh, I wouldn’t be able to sleep,” he insisted. He also admitted to getting upset with himself before he, “tried to use it as a positive.” After a run of seven consecutive pars to follow the double bogey that came with the penalty ruling he romped home with seven birdies in his last eight holes to post a 66.
The combination of that flurry of back nine par breakers (and with it the assumption that he’s due a regression to mean of sorts) plus the long-term sensational East Lake record of his playing partner Schauffele has Theegala at 9/4 in the final round two-ball.
Theegala broke 70 just once on his course debut two years ago but has posted 67-66-66 this week. When Schauffele opened 70-64 he stretched his run of par or better scores at East Lake to 30 and he has a 64 as well as a 62 in his last three Sunday starts. But he carded a 71 yesterday which, although a level-par score as of this week, is his highest score yet on the layout.
Afterwards he was frustrated. “Pretty bad,” he admitted. “Got off to a bad start and then I hit maybe, five or six fairways. I just haven’t really hit any fairways all week.” Worse yet he added: “Kind of hit it both ways today a little bit. Hit some left, hit some right.” And his conclusion wasn’t encouraging either: “Just felt a little shaky on some tee shots. There are a few fairways I haven’t hit all week, so maybe it’s a little bit mental there.”
Is it possible that the renovation work undertaken since last year has thrown him a little? Maybe and, while appreciating his long term record, the price to oppose him feels a little too big. Theegala is up to riding the wave.
We’ll also add on a double on the first two-balls out, supporting a pair of golfers playing this event for a second time after good debuts. TOM HOGE carded 66-66-66-69 in 2022 and started 69-68 this week before tumbling with a Saturday 76. He’s currently tied 29th with Christiaan Bezuidenhout and if Hoge can return to the 60s he should take this from the South African who has scored 71-69-73 and is struggling to find the fairways.
In the penultimate group it is Billy Horschel (73-69-71) who is ailing from the tee and, although he’s a past course winner, his playing partner CHRIS KIRK carded 66-68-71-68 when fourth in his only previous start at East Lake in 2014. It’s a tweaked course now and after early difficulties (70-74) he shot 67 yesterday. The Hoge-Kirk double pays 3.73/1.
Posted at 0912 BST on 01/09/24
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