Matt Cooper previews the final round from The Sentry and isn't keen on tipping in the outright market but does have an alternative selection.
Golf betting tips: The Sentry final round
2pts Sungjae Im and Ludvig Åberg to win three-balls at 4.35/1 (bet365)
Matsuyama sets the pace
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is not a traditional linksland test. Unlike the latter, which were once below the grey waters of the North Sea, Irish Sea or Atlantic Ocean, the former is high on the cliff tops of Maui overlooking the bright blue water of the Pacific Ocean.
But the host of the PGA Tour’s annual seasonal opener, The Sentry, does have one element in common with the original form of the game: it’s usually windy so the test needs to be fair and if it’s not blowing then high quality golfers can run amok.
So it is this week. Golfers as fine as Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg and Sam Burns are 15-under-par through 54 holes and they haven’t got a sniff. They’ve averaged 67 per round and yet they’re T21 on the leaderboard and a full dozen adrift of the leader.
Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama is the pacesetter after carding rounds of 65-65-62 to hit 27-under with one round to go. Collin Morikawa (66-65-62) is one shot behind him and the assumption is that we’ll witness a final round shootout between the pair because Thomas Detry in third is four blows behind Morikawa with Sungjae Im another shot in arrears on 21-under and Harry Hall alone in fifth on 20-under.
Unsurprisingly, Matsuyama’s effort is a tournament 54-hole record at Kapalua and equals the PGA Tour’s three round best total. Morikawa was close to equalling another record because he’s landed 52 of 54 greens in regulation so far this week which is just one shy of the tour best. With nothing too blustery in the forecast more records could tumble on Sunday but whatever happens it’s not a day for aiming at the middle of the green.
Matsuyama has been at his enigmatic best in chats to the media this week. He has a new putter in the bag and revealed his interest in it had been piqued when he saw someone else using it. Asked who that was his reply had a touch of Eric Cantona about it: “Just somebody that nobody knows.” He was also asked: “What’s the best thing you’ve done on the island this week off the golf course?” And deadpanned: “Haven’t done anything.” When someone wondered, “What do you think is different this week than the past few years here in Hawaii?” He shrugged and said: “I have no idea.” If there was a toilet book of Hideki’s Q&A’s I’d be a buyer.
Matsuyama is also very good with a 54-hole advantage.
His first was on the Japan Tour in 2013 and he finished second but since then? He’s 9-for-9 and the most recent example was last August when he won the FedEx St Jude Championship. On that occasion, he’d opened up a five-shot lead and could afford to coast home with a 70. He’ll need better than that this time around. His week’s effort are a return to form on the course. He shared the 54-hole lead on debut and finished top four in each of his first three visits, but hasn’t recorded a top 10 in his last four.
Morikawa is a five-time visitor and is on track for a sixth top seven finish. He was the six-shot leader at this stage in 2023 and fluffed the chance with a final round 72. He has a golden opportunity to redeem himself and turn that bad memory into a good one. “I’ve got 18 holes,” he said. “Not worried about the next tournament, not worried about the season, just worry about tomorrow. What’s in front of me, one shot at a time, and see how it plays out. But definitely go out there and try and win this thing.” Do you like stuff like this, he was asked. “I love it,” he said.
Matsuyama is the 4/5 favourite, Morikawa is 13/10 and the perceived difficulty in overwhelming both of them is revealed elsewhere. Detry, who is yet to win on either the DP World or PGA Tours, is 50/1, Im is 55/1 and Hall 300/1.
Im matched the top two in thrashing a Saturday 62 and is possibly the type of character who could go close to repeating that but it might still be insufficient.
Focus on three-balls
It looks a final round to avoid the outright prices and look instead at the three-balls.
IM was chipper after his third round saying: “I think it was a perfect day for me. Last year I shot 10 birdies and 10 under in the final round, but this year I shot 11 under par in the third round, so I think I’m in a good position for Sunday. I want to give myself a pat on the back because I played so well today.”
He’s up against Hall and Max Greyserman in the final round. The latter carded a Saturday 63 but Im’s experience, good mood and determination to keep aggressive might give him an advantage. He’s 13/10.
We’ll add ÅBERG to topple Burns and Austin Eckroat in the final lap.
In the back end of his impressive debut year as a pro the Swede had a habit of going low on Sundays – a 63 at Deere Run, a 64 in Crans, a 62 in Vegas, a 64 in Mexico, a 61 to win at Sea Island and he closed his Sentry debut with a 63.
He lost the knack as his form dipped in 2024 but he closed last year’s trip to Sea Island with a 64 and closed the Hero World Challenge with a 67 that only Scottie Scheffler bettered.
Eckroat has had a solid debut and Burns has much preferred the lack of win but Åberg’s firepower can see him take the group win. He’s 11/8 and the best double pays 4.35/1.
Posted at 1100 GMT on 05/01/25
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