Golf betting tips: Senior Open Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Senior Open Championship

2pts e.w. Darren Clarke to win the Senior British Open at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Richard Green to win the Senior British Open at 40/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Stephen Dodd to win the Senior British Open at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The Senior Open Championship is absent of the star of the seniors' circuit, Steve Stricker, as well as in-form Ernie Els, and Padraig Harrington is left with an excellent opportunity to go one better than when runner-up last year.

Harrington has played in six senior majors and only once been worse than fifth, winning the US Senior Open last year, and on the face of it is a fair price even at 5/2. He ought to take a bit of beating having shown himself to be competitive on the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour throughout 2023.

The issue is the forecast and the inherent unpredictability of links golf in general.

Rain is set to fall throughout the week at Royal Porthcawl, where Harrington's rival Bernhard Langer won this event in both 2014 and 2017. It's reasonable to argue that Harrington thrives in foul weather but the truth of the matter is it adds volatility that I'm not sure you want to be accepting at such cramped odds.

If we knew the weather wouldn't affect the outcome of the tournament, backing Harrington at 5/2 and Langer at 9/1 would seem a perfectly reasonable approach. But given the unknowns, and let's be honest a fair few shock winners of this event down the years, betting each-way against the prohibitively priced favourite feels wise.

Remember, it's two months since Harrington was upwards of 2/1 to be the best of five seniors in the PGA Championship. Now he's less than 3/1 to beat more than a hundred in potentially miserable weather and if you need reminding as to the nature of this style of the sport, we've just had a 100/1 Open winner in the most volatile of men's majors.

The one I like most is the man who pipped Harrington last year, DARREN CLARKE. Proven in foul weather and a former Open champion, he played well in the first round at Royal Liverpool last week and that should have him primed for a bold defence of his title.

• CLICK HERE to back Clarke with Sky Bet

Clarke's Senior Open record reads 10-3-1, contending in all three appearances since his 2019 debut, and he placed on an exposed course in the Senior PGA earlier this year. Indeed he's been a factor of sorts in all four senior majors so far in 2023, with this by far the most likely scene of a second win.

The Senior Open has seven multiple champions in its less-than-40-year history and Clarke, whose putter was the culprit at Hoylake where he struck the ball pretty well, seems as likely as anyone to cope with conditions and threaten the favourites.

Thongchai Jaidee is a former Wales Open winner who was third in this at Gleneagles last year, but I'm not sure his form coming in compares. I could excuse a missed cut in the US Senior Open, but rounds of 82 and 79 on the Asian Development Tour a fortnight ago, back home in Thailand, have to be a worry.

Instead I like the look of RICHARD GREEN, who has gone 11-37-27-35 in the majors this year and fought back strongly from a disastrous second round at the US Senior Open recently.

• CLICK HERE to back Green with Sky Bet

Since then he's played nicely at Firestone but the form I'm drawn to is his successful title defence at La Moye, a coastal course in Jersey, six weeks ago. Green's two wins there and strong Open Championship record confirm that playing in the wind is a positive.

This is his first season on the Champions Tour having dominated Qualifying School last year, and he's getting more and more comfortable. Fifth after day one of the PGA and again at the US Senior Open, conditions like these might help him to stay the course if he can conjure yet another fast start.

While Harrington and Clarke prepared nicely at Hoylake, I do wonder whether the European Legends circuit might have primed its generally lower-ranked players for this week's test. As well as the event in Jersey, they've been to Seapoint Golf Links in Ireland, and it's almost unprecedented for the tour to have prepared on links courses for an Open held on a links course.

Peter Baker won in Ireland but Ricardo Gonzalez went 6-2 across the pair and, at 150/1, made some appeal. He's been in excellent form in general on the European Legends Tour, has always had genius hands, and defied really tough conditions to win in Italy late last year.

Worth a Bob or two?

Gonzalez was also seventh on his Senior Open debut two years ago and made slightly more appeal than Paul Lawrie, while those spying a not uncommon American upset should consider Bob Estes, who boasts an excellent Open record for a player of his calibre and was 10th after a closing 65 at Lytham on his second try in this.

Estes managed seven top-25 finishes in 13 Open appearances, which shows you how much he's enjoyed links golf when you consider he registered the same number of top-25s across 39 starts in the other three combined. Form figures of 18-45-18-51 in the majors this year is respectable and I wonder whether the reason he skipped this event when held at Sunningdale and Gleneagles is that he loves links golf.

Those three came under consideration along with Bradley Dredge, making his seniors debut on home soil. Dredge has been practising hard for this, including trips to Royal Porthcawl, but at 66/1 and shortening having been absent for more than a year, I find it hard to see value in a player who is admittedly difficult to price.

Arjun Atwal is still new to the seniors game and has been competitive in both major starts while the classy Anders Hansen catches the eye following the withdrawal of compatriot Thomas Bjorn, who had been very high up my shortlist.

Instead, I'll try 300/1 shot STEPHEN DODD, a Welshman who lives not far away from the course, has also played it in the build-up, and won this event two years ago when holding off Miguel Angel Jimenez.

• CLICK HERE to back Dodd with Sky Bet

As mentioned, repeat winners are common and while Dodd would be a surprising one, he was 25th at Firestone last time behind Stricker, David Toms and Els, all of them electing not to play here, with Stewart Cink seventh and a host of others who've also chosen not to come over for this finishing in front of Dodd.

Something like a repeat of that performance would make him a place contender and it's not difficult to argue that a Welsh links course should suit more than that parkland beast in Ohio, one well known to many of those who finished in front of him.

Dodd was behind Gonzalez and a few European regulars in Ireland and Jersey before that but played well enough and you'd imagine this has been his focus.

Posted at 1600 BST on 25/07/23

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