Golf betting tips: Second-round three-ball best bets for the Farmers Insurance Open

Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open

2pts Mackenzie Hughes to win his three-ball at 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts S.H. Kim to win his three-ball at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt double Hughes and Kim at 7/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

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Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Hughes to beat Hodges and Mitchell

• South Course, 1840 GMT

MACKENZIE HUGHES wouldn't look an obvious fit for Torrey Pines on paper, but for five years now he's been defying that logic with a series of strong performances at the South Course, undermined at times by what he does on the North.

That makes him an ideal betting proposition, as on paper his record in this event is poor, yet the reality is the South Course is where he contended for the US Open, and where he's been better than the field average in each of his last four Farmers appearances.

Even on the two occasions he hasn't been, which were the first two visits of his career, Hughes was a fraction of a shot worse than average on a per-round basis, so he's just very comfortable here. Perhaps that's because he enjoys a proper test in general, something we also saw at Royal St George's and in the Honda Classic.

Whatever the cause, he's by far the best player of the South Course in this group. Keith Mitchell, a former Honda champion who is long off the tee, for some reason never plays well in the event, with the South Course particularly problematic. Lee Hodges did manage to shoot 70 there last year, but that only brought his average down to 73.

Hughes meanwhile has shot par or better around the South on eight occasions down the years and having been playing good golf for a while now, he's a strong fancy at the prices. On what we know, another low-70s score should do and that's well within his capabilities.

Kim to beat Hall and Duncan

• North Course, 1650 GMT

I'm generally against siding with first-round winners in second-round three-balls, as you'll find the price squeezed which often underestimates the fickle nature of this sport.

However, after SH KIM was six shots too good for both Harry Hall and Tyler Duncan on the South Course, he should only need a solid knock around the North Course to comfortably account for both of them again.

Kim, who contended here in California at the Fortinet in September, shot 67 on his North Course debut last year – three better than Duncan has managed in four tries, and seven better than Hall's best from his two previous starts in the event.

Hall relies heavily on the putter and perhaps these bumpy, temperamental greens take away his biggest weapon, while Duncan is a short, fairway-finding golfer who isn't suited by the soft conditions we found on Wednesday, nor Torrey Pines in general.

Kim's playing partners weren't just bad in round one, they were statistically two of the four worst ball-strikers among the 70-odd who played the South Course. That's the sort of thing you won't find accounted for in the prices and Kim looks like he ought to be even-money to double-up.

Stevens to beat Cole and Streelman

• South Course, 1650 GMT

As we saw in Wednesday's first round, powerful driving is an advantage at the South Course, particularly when it's playing this long and soft. And among this trio, that gives SAM STEVENS a pretty sizeable advantage because while he ranked inside the top 30 in distance last year, Eric Cole and Kevin Streelman were both outside the top 100.

Unfortunately there are two negatives and they're significant enough to leave Stevens alone at the price. One is that Cole is among the most consistent players on the PGA Tour. I have a hunch the South Course will find him out but ever since he almost won the Honda for us last year, he's been performing to a very high level. That merits respect.

The other is that Streelman does love it here. He was third in 2016 and has made six more cuts since, while he also managed 15th in the US Open a couple of years ago, one of the best major performances of his career.

Streelman continues to hit the ball pretty well and Cole can make everything he looks at on a good day, so while Stevens is best equipped to survive this test, he's not quite a big enough price to chance against the experience and form which completes this group.

Had Cole bossed this group on day one and gone odds-on for day two, we'd have probably been able to nab a bit of value. As it is, Cole was beaten by both playing partners and while I could see that happening again, the prices seem about right.

Posted at 1005 GMT on 25/01/24

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