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Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the ZOZO Championship
Hideki Matsuyama can delight home crowds and win the ZOZO Championship on its return to Japan, according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: ZOZO Championship
4pts win Hideki Matsuyama at 14/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 25/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sung-hoon Kang at 125/1 (888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Matt NeSmith at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
There is only one way to go when your inaugural edition begins with Tiger Woods beating your best ever male golfer, and the downward trajectory of the ZOZO Championship continues despite a welcome return to Japan this week. With Woods still sidelined, his future unclear, it's left to Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele to headline the field, which in itself looks fine. The trouble is, with one or two exceptions, the standard drops off very quickly thereafter.
Given the TV broadcast times it's fair to say the latest PGA Tour event may not generate much in the way of buzz here in the UK, but there's still a golf tournament to be won and for those who wish to set alarms, Narashino Country Club will at least soften the blow. This par 70 is very much Japanese in style, a comment which stretches beyond the tree-lined fairways and to the fact there are two greens for every hole. It offered a decent test in 2019, with just nine players reaching double-figures under-par and Woods dominant in winning by three.
That first venture into Japan saw weather wreak havoc, with Friday's play washed out and no fans allowed on Saturday, but conditions should be less volatile this week. It will be cool but the course is expected to play more soft than saturated, and sparse rough ought to remain insignificant. There are some long and difficult par-fours here, but three par-fives is atypical of a par 70 and should help to ensure that scoring is fairly low, mitigating what's a plainly weaker field two years on.
It's a little surprising that so many firms again saw fit to consider Schauffele a more likely winner than Morikawa but the exchanges are accountable and truth be told they're hard to split, one more consistent, the other more prolific. The leaderboard here two years ago suggests Morikawa's superior iron play might tip the scales in his favour, but I would rather oppose both and give HIDEKI MATSUYAMA another chance.
Matsuyama has been a little underwhelming during the last fortnight in Las Vegas, but prior to that looked in excellent touch at the Fortinet Championship. He's always been a little difficult to pin down from one week to the next and his putter has started to misbehave since a flying start to the Shriners, but these Bentgrass surfaces remain preferred and I anticipate a big step up for a return home to Japan.
Despite a month off and having withdrawn from his last start, not to mention the enormous pressure he was playing under, Matsuyama contended throughout the Olympics in Tokyo this summer. He showed at Augusta, when becoming the first Japanese man to win a major, that he's now ready to shoulder the burden, and when departing here having chased home Woods in 2019 promised to gain his revenge next time.
Two years on and he faces a significantly weaker field, absent of Woods, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Viktor Hovland, Louis Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland, Jordan Spieth and now Paul Casey, too. It looks weaker than the Olympics at the front end, significantly so, and yet he's a similar price here.
Merely playing on home soil is an advantage, but the course is also one we know fits having recorded his best finish in more than two years when runner-up alongside Im, itself underlining that he didn't exactly arrive here at his peak in 2019. Looking back, it's now possible to draw comparisons to Augusta, where he and Woods have won and where Im contended as a rookie. Augusta is wider, but also features Bentgrass greens and little in the way of rough.
Having also triumphed at Firestone and threatened to win a major at Quail Hollow, Matsuyama loves this type of set-up and the Zoysia grass fairways are also fine given his runner-up finish at Southwind. He does have one or two questions to answer now and the win-only recommendation reflects the fact I believe he's overpriced to win the event, despite being no sure thing to give his running.
It's been less than 3 months since he captured gold at the Olympics.@XSchauffele returns to Japan looking for more success @ZOZOChamp.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 19, 2021
On the face of it, Rickie Fowler's performance in the CJ Cup carries real substance, having hit the ball to an extremely high standard. Earlier this year, Jordan Spieth's odds collapsed from three-figures in Phoenix to 25/1 at Pebble Beach, where he underlined that what he'd done before was no flash in the pan, albeit without winning. Fowler seeks to do the same but I can't bring myself to trust him under very different conditions.
Course ideal for hot Chilean prospect
There's certainly no denying that JOAQUIN NIEMANN's form has greater depth to that of anyone else in this part of the market bar perhaps a still-winless Cameron Tringale, and unlike Fowler there looks to be a strong chance the Chilean improves for the move from the Summit Club to Narashino.
Niemann's sole PGA Tour win so far came at Old White TPC, a tree-lined, old-fashioned course with dog legs and elevation changes throughout. Earlier this summer he lost a play-off at Detroit, which is of a similar nature, and strong performances at the Sony Open (T2), Heritage (T5), Travelers (T5), Memorial (T6), Valspar (T8), Colonial (T8) and the Olympics (T10) demonstrate that he likes courses which somewhat remind him of those he grew up playing in Chile.
Having been taken under Sergio Garcia's wing since emerging as one of the brightest talents in the game, Niemann has marked himself out as a similarly creative shot-maker, keen to shape and flight his ball, and the one-dimensional golf of the desert probably doesn't speak to him. Despite that he was 17th through 54 holes of the CJ Cup before a quiet putting week eventually told.
Like Matsuyama, Bentgrass appears to be his best surface and he also caught the eye here in 2019. Back then, at the end of a long, breakout year and as his form was beginning to tail off, Niemann shot 68-68-67 before a final-round 74 saw him tumble from 11th to 33rd. He ranked sixth in greens, itself a demonstration that the rough here isn't penal as he managed to find just five fairways over the weekend and was 75th of 76 in driving accuracy.
More reliable off the tee now and having been in the mix on both starts in Japan, this looks a perfect test for him and, given that there are only three players in this field who have achieved more this year in terms of consistency and quality of form, he's well worth a good each-way bet.
Charley Hoffman spoke of his determination to book his place at Kapalua when making a fast start at the Shriners and might improve on a limp effort in the CJ Cup. His wins in Boston and Mexico tie in nicely with this style of golf, too, but preference at around the 40/1 mark would be for CT Pan, who took bronze in the Olympics earlier this year.
Pan opened up at 66/1 and would've been of serious interest, having declared 'I definitely love the Japanese style golf course' when making a promising start two years ago. He was badly out of form then, but returns having finished sixth and 11th to start this season, his approach play and putter both firing and his lack of distance not necessarily a handicap here.
Like Im, he contended on debut at Augusta for good measure and has a win at Harbour Town to go with second at Torrey Pines and Sedgefield, fourth at Boston and correlating form elsewhere, all of which made him the first name on the shortlist. Unfortunately I was far from the only one to earmark him for this and the odds now are too short for me to recommend him.
By contrast, SUNG KANG remains on offer at three-figure prices virtually across the board and can go really well.
Kang was selected on these pages two years ago at 150/1, and somewhat justified inclusion with a solid top-20 finish. Truth be told he arrived in miserable form, suffering a post-win hangover following his triumph on the Zoysia fairways of Trinity Forest in May, and yet he played nicely throughout.
It seems to me that he's playing better now, having made all three cuts to start the season prior to last week's no-cut CJ Cup, shooting 64 there to add to his 61 at the Shriners, and follow on from the promise he showed to end the 2020-21 campaign at the Wyndham.
"Man, this was a lot of fun. Definitely had a great group today. Me and Rory and Sung Kang were just feeding off each other, we both played really good golf. Every time so far that I played with Rory I've rolled the putter so good, so today was the same case."
— Ron Mintz (@MintzGolf) October 16, 2021
Abraham Ancer
Twice a winner in his native Korea, Kang has been third in the CIMB Classic over in Malaysia and has form across the continent, while he's also been particularly effective when conditions are receptive. That should again be the case here and with his iron play much improved, his driving well above average last week, and the putter very good right now, he has a lot in his favour.
Tom Hoge is a steady, capable type with form at some of the right courses and the core elements of his game ticking over nicely. He's respected along with Andrew Putnam and Matt Wallace, the latter now working with the vastly experienced caddie Mick Doran and having shown much more in the Shriners last time we saw him.
The right approach?
Wallace has won on a similar-looking course in Denmark for good measure, but I'll chase the white rabbit of a MATT NESMITH breakthrough at twice the odds.
NeSmith has shown himself to be a serious ball-striker when on-song, and yet somehow it hasn't translated to a meaningful result. His best on the PGA Tour so far is sixth in Puerto Rico, with two top-10 finishes in the desert to go with it. Far too often he's been on the fringes without muscling in and contending on Sunday.
Those are the negatives, but it's still early days in his career, and we should probably make allowances for the way the last couple of years have gone. Players at his level had their opportunities limited by world-class field upon world-class field in the summer of 2020 and it's probably no wonder he's not yet managed to break through.
Having been 14th last time at the Shriners, NeSmith might just be ready for another strong end to the year, which is what he did in 2020 when managing three top-20s in four starts. That coincided with a dip in field strength and that's the case here, with just 78 players and so many of them having much to prove when it comes to the PGA Tour.
Crucially, NeSmith's approach play is back, ranking first in the Fortinet and third in the Shriners, and with his accuracy improved last time as well as his putting, he's laid the foundations to kick on and at last capitalise fully on what can be elite-level iron play. A leaderboard of Woods, Matsuyama and Im suggests approaches were key in 2019 and he can compete in that department with just about anyone in the sport.
Asked Matt NeSmith about playing '15 US Open as an Am. Said there was a signup sheet for practice rounds, so he signed up to play with Rory, JDay, JRose.
— Dan Rapaport (@Daniel_Rapaport) March 10, 2021
"But there was 1 guy we couldn't sign up to play with. Tiger's name was there. First tee time. Three X's next to it."
🐐🐐🐐
Finally, a word on the Japanese challenge beyond Matsuyama. It amounted to very little here two years ago, but with no Woods and a significantly weaker field, perhaps that will change. Satoshi Kodaira for instance was drawn with Tiger for the first two rounds and did really well to overcome nervousness and stick around towards the top of the leaderboard, so after a good showing back home last week he might just pop up at a price as he threatened to do in the spring.
Indeed the Japan Open might prepare the locals nicely for this, and give them an advantage. Many of the PGA Tour raiders had warmed up in Korea but this time they face a long journey across, and if any of them do struggle to adjust then the door may be somewhat ajar for someone to change their career.
My vote would go to Yuki Inamori, probably a bit less flashy than some of his compatriots and better known as the most accurate driver in Japan. He's twice a winner of the aforementioned Japan Open and contended for it last week, his form now reading 8-9-18-7 following a quiet start to the year.
Despite his struggles during spring and summer, Inamori has climbed to fifth on the money list and unlike some, we've seen that certain elements of his game are up to competing with the PGA Tour regulars. Earlier this year he finished mid-pack in the WGC-Workday despite rust and an awful putting week, with his iron play good both there and on his one start in the Sony Open.
At 250/1, this late addition to the field may prove an able deputy for Jimmy Walker, and he's one to consider in the side markets. Ultimately though the winner of this will likely be from towards the top of the betting, and it might just be the only man who can rescue this tournament as a spectacle.
Posted at 1115 BST on 19/10/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
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