Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Sentry Tournament of Champions

Golf betting tips: Tournament of Champions

3pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 14/1 (William Hill, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

2pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

• Player-by-player guide to this limited field available at the foot of the preview

With world number one Jon Rahm back in action, world number two Collin Morikawa intent on usurping him, and numbers four, five, six and a hat-tricking seeking seven also part of a strong field, here's a slightly curious thing: the world number eight looks like going off favourite for this week's Sentry Tournament of Champions, and the return of PGA Tour golf.

Justin Thomas is the man in question, and to be frank I'm not sure it's altogether wrong that he's closing in on Rahm. Thomas simply adores the Plantation Course at Kapalua, where he's twice a winner, and more than that has demonstrated that he's ready to go when he returns after Christmas. After disgracing himself last year, the otherwise likeable Thomas will be all the more keen to go out and get 2022 off to a positive start.

With Jim 'Bones' Mackay on his bag, this feels like a big year for someone who has underwhelmed in majors since winning one in 2017, yet is among the most prolific and most decorated players in the sport. There is no finer place to start than Kapalua, where his trademark iron play has seen him gain two strokes per day every day over the last three years, and he has a competitive advantage over a player in Rahm who has been absent since October.

This tournament has typically gone to someone playing deep into December and often at the Hero World Challenge. Last season, when there had been no Hero, the first three home had all been part of the Mayakoba Classic which took place at the start of the previous month, and fifth-placed Sungjae Im had stayed on later to play in Dubai. Ryan Palmer might look like an exception, but he stayed sharp in the QBE Shootout, too.

Rahm is one of a handful of players who have that against them, Im and Patrick Cantlay among the others, and it feels like a significant handicap. Sixteen of the world's top 20 players are in attendance here, Rory McIlroy being the only qualifier to turn down the invite, and over the course of 72 holes I don't think anyone, not even Rahm, will be afforded the luxury of shedding significant rust.

Hero holds key to Kapalua

The winner then may come from the Hero, played on a somewhat similar golf course. Albany is more penal and less undulating but the similarities are significant enough, and the key factor is world-class competition. Rahm hasn't really had it since the Ryder Cup, truth be told.

It's tempting to side with Morikawa, seventh on both starts here and last seen blowing a five-shot lead in the Hero. That can in part be attributed to the fact he would've become world number one had he converted the first significant lead of his career, and this quick learner surely won't blink when next the opportunity arises. If Morikawa is suitably focused having got engaged over Christmas, then Rahm may be forced to pass on the baton for now.

My preference though is to give XANDER SCHAUFFELE the benefit of the doubt, his last proper PGA Tour win having come in this event three years ago thanks to a final-round 62.

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Since then, the Californian has topped the 72-hole scoring in the TOUR Championship, for which he gets ranking points but no silverware, and then won gold at Tokyo 2020, for which he somehow gets into this field. It has been a frustrating run and no mistake, but for all the disappointments there's been the odd hard-luck story and it's not unreasonable to expect the cards to fall right for him in the months ahead.

Certainly, the way he played at the Ryder Cup should be hugely beneficial when next he's in the mix and there should be no lack of focus as he seeks to end the drought. That alone is worth something when players arrive here on the back of varied preparations and not always fully focused on the task at hand, and I also like the fact he's often gone well fresh including when he should have won the first post-lockdown event back in the summer of 2020.

For Schauffele, this is an opportunity he can't afford to take anything but seriously and it's at a course he loves. Like so many, Thomas among them, he built on a quiet debut to win on his second start at Kapalua, before clumsily losing a play-off to his fellow course specialist a year later, and then finished fifth last year.

Fifth place needs no excusing but it's worth noting that Schauffele had just had Covid, and was still suffering physically – which is a big problem given this is the hardest walk on the calendar. "I tried to walk up a few holes today just as a test," he said on the eve of the tournament. "Definitely not in great shape, in all honesty... slowly getting my strength back day-to-day."

It really was a mighty effort for a player who said his legs hurt and had also been off since the Masters seven weeks earlier, whereas this time he's enjoyed his standard preparation: a gentle introduction to the season (18th CJ Cup, 28th ZOZO), followed by a mid-pack finish in the Hero where he's yet to prove anywhere near as effective as he is here on Maui, and was without his regular caddie.

That kind of course comfort is and has long been a big factor for Schauffele, who has been first and second here, and at East Lake, and at Sheshan, as well as second and third at Augusta. All are courses where he can continually reach for his driver and he can build another strong title challenge on that club.

Last year, English was in some ways a fortuitous winner, as he wouldn't typically have been invited to play in the event but the qualification criteria was expanded owing to the disrupted schedule. Having qualified for this by winning an event which didn't come with FedEx Cup points nor anything like a PGA Tour field, it could now be Schauffele's turn to capitalise on what appears an act of generosity.

Six short par-fours make Bryson DeChambeau a fascinating option again, after seventh place last year when selected as the headline wager. The logic was that he might now boss matters with his driver, and he'd been seventh on the strength of his putter on his previous visit.

DeChambeau got half the battle right, leading the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee, but did everything else wrong, yet I can sort of forgive him as he was so hellbent on speed training at the time. That remains true to some degree but you'd like to think everything else would have fallen into place, except that he hasn't quite kicked on as some expected in the intervening 12 months.

Can Spieth come back with a bang?

For now I'll stick to those with better course form and in selecting JORDAN SPIETH, hope that between him and Schauffele we get the fifth multiple winner at Kapalua in just the 24th edition to be played here.

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Spieth won by a whopping eight strokes in 2016, another champion who benefitted from a look around to capture this title on his second visit. Not that Spieth was far away on his first, finishing second and beaten just a shot by Zach Johnson.

That fact is reminiscent of his first two performances at Augusta, first losing out to Bubba Watson and then dominating on his return, and there are similarities between the two courses: hanging lies, sparse rough, insignificant penalty off the tee and an emphasis on quality approaches.

Fundamentally, both require creativity and guts, qualities Spieth has in abundance, and parallels extend to the fact Spieth has done more than just putt the lights out to triumph. Indeed his record here (2-1-3-9) would be virtually blemish-free but for the fact he ranked 30th out of 34 in putting last time, and even then he played better golf than everyone bar Dustin Johnson over the closing 54 holes.

That was four years ago, which I also think is potentially significant and relates to the biggest negative: Spieth was awful in the Hero Challenge before Christmas, losing by fully six strokes per round to Hovland and finishing last of 20.

The excuse is obvious and very reasonable – he had only recently become a father and it's unlikely he touched a club before arriving in the Bahamas. The risk though is that something similar arises, and that he's undercooked here in Hawaii having enjoyed his first Christmas as a parent.

But that fact, that he hasn't qualified for this since 2018 and couldn't even get into the field last year, won't be lost on Spieth, and it might just ensure focus. If we have that, based on the fact he played fine in the Ryder Cup and was 18th in the CJ Cup thereafter, then we might just be onto something at 22/1 given how much he loves this place.

There is ultimately a lot of guesswork required for the first week of the year so while the downturn in Spieth's approach play after he finished second in the Open is a concern, everyone here has some kind of question to answer. Few have such upside as far as I see it.

Second-time lucky?

Spieth, Schauffele, English, Thomas and Patrick Reed all won this on their second visit, meaning five of the last seven champions boast that profile as we wait for the first debut winner since 2008, and I was inclined at first to explore this avenue. Unfortunately, hat-trick-seeking Viktor Hovland looks just about short enough, I'm not sure Abraham Ancer is made for this place despite a good weekend last year, and Im has to overcome a longer-than-ideal break.

There is another qualifier at a massive price, Matt Jones, who was 11th on his debut and returns seven years later having produced some of the best golf of his life in 2021. He wasn't exactly chopping it despite a quiet end to the year, either, but he'll need to improve again to crack the places and there's probably not much to be gained in pursuing the wild ones here, which also rules out Lucas Glover and his fondness for the track.

If there is an outsider capable of making waves it might be Max Homa, another second-time visitor. He took down a world-class field to win at Riviera last February, has since collected a third PGA Tour title, and at his best goes about things a bit like Thomas does. At 80/1, those are reasons enough to be somewhat interested, but we can wait one more week before speculating again.

Posted at 1815 GMT on 03/01/22

Player-by-player guide

ANCER, Abraham

Got to grips with this unique test on debut, finishing 17th after an 11-under weekend which matched that of the champion. Will feel he properly deserves his spot now after WGC at Southwind and while tougher conditions generally suit, has gone close enough in shootouts. Big course with wide fairways does put him at a disadvantage as evidenced last year, when he lost 10 strokes to Bryson off the tee.

BERGER, Daniel

Seventh in the Hero was a fine effort given he'd taken a prolonged break after making his Ryder Cup debut in September. Finishes of 14-11-10 here are about what you'd expect but worth noting he was second at halfway and fourth through 54 holes last year and there's a lot in his favour in terms of being by the sea and putting on Bermuda greens. That said, calm forecast should make for an extremely low winning total and does insist he prefers more of a grind.

BURNS, Sam

Revelation in 2021 and particularly towards the end of the year, when he validated his status with a second PGA Tour win and didn't even have to be at his best in doing so. Subsequently threatened in elite company at the Hero, just as he had when losing a WGC play-off to Ancer in August, and looks an obvious candidate to pick up where he left off. Stands out as the player most likely to end what's now a 14-year wait for a winning debutant here.

CANTLAY, Patrick

Huge campaign coming for the 2021 PGA Tour Player of the Year, who showed serious mettle to beat Bryson DeChambeau in a play-off and then to win the FedEx Cup jackpot. No surprise he decided to pack the clubs away after an impressive Ryder Cup debut but having skipped the Hero, that means he last played competitive golf more than three months ago. Overcoming that handicap at a course which isn't perfect for him won't be easy.

CHAMP, Cameron

Gifted slugger who fell over the line in the 3M Open somewhat but now has three PGA Tour victories to his name in as many seasons on the circuit. All have been in far weaker company than this and tougher scoring conditions would definitely help but he has shown some signs of encouragement in three previous visits, notably when 11th on debut and then 14th in 2020. Has had his share of injury problems and not seen since September as wrist issue persists.

CINK, Stewart

Returned after an 11-year absence in 2021 and few would've expected him to be back again a year later. Form cooled during the second half of the season and not much to take from a run of MC-MC-49-MC to begin this one. Best of fifth in five appearances, and that was 17 years ago, so can be expected to finish down the field.

DAHMEN, Joel

Popular winner in the Dominican Republic last spring and hasn't done much wrong since. In fact, caught the eye quite a bit towards the end of 2021, driving the ball typically well and hinting that he could emulate fellow twitterer Max Homa and turn one title into two. To do so here would require a career-best, particularly given it's his first look, and one of those you keep an eye on with the Sony Open in mind.

DAVIS, Cameron

Largely quiet since winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has struggled to get going in five starts this season. Positives centre around his good record next door in the Sony Open, the fact that he gives it a rip, and his latent ability. Combine those with the record of Aussies here... and it's still not enough.

DECHAMBEAU, Bryson

Seventh place last year came at the height of the DeChambeau speed freak-out, his chat with the media after round one throwing up Bryson pseudoscientific catchphrases like 'that's kind of what breaks your neurological CNS'. In retrospect he probably wasn't best prepared for tournament golf but still finished close to the places, dominating off the tee in a way I had hoped he might when making him the headline tip. One year on and he's not done enough to convince me he can complete the jigsaw here. Plus, he'll be without a detailed greens book and he's been hopeless at Augusta when similarly handicapped.

ENGLISH, Harris

Prior to 2021, the last 10 winners of this all ranked first, second or third in strokes-gained tee-to-green. English ranked 13th, instead relying on a field-leading putting performance. Then again we were set up for something slightly odd to happen from the start: he was one of a handful of players in the field who got in without actually winning on the PGA Tour, which has always been the sole qualification criteria. Very slow start to the new season since enjoying a decent Ryder Cup debut makes defence appear unlikely.

FINAU, Tony

Disappointed in this last year when allowed into the field despite not having won since 2016, after which he was ninth on his debut at Kapalua. Certainly a good course in some ways given it's big, wide and by the coast, and having played nicely with a stand-in caddie in the Hero, was on the shortlist now here on merit. The trouble is, if 25-under is needed then it is certainly against a player whose best form, including now a proper PGA Tour win at Liberty National, has come when par carries meaning. Will probably shoot 65 one day but 73 another and be left behind by the leaders.

GLOVER, Lucas

Rank outsider for good reason, given he's not managed anything better than 38th since winning the John Deere Classic in July. That said there are positives: he ended the season ticking over quite nicely, and last time he played here (2010) he led after 18, 36 and 54 holes. Will plainly need the putter to turn up but it was fine when we last saw him. Possibly would've been tempted had there been genuine wind in the forecast.

GOOCH, Talor

Capped a fine run of form with victory by the coast in the RSM Classic, impressing with the way he went about winning for the first time on the PGA Tour. That was a seaside shootout but it came on shorter courses and this expansive, meaty version of a birdie-fest may not be as suitable. Lots to be said for one who is hitting his irons so well but this just doesn't feel like the time or the place.

GRACE, Branden

At his best by the sea but was 32nd here in 2017, breaking par just once in four tries, and ended an up-and-down 2021 very much in down mode before a return home to spend Christmas in South Africa. Course is on the big side and would've wanted horrible conditions to look twice.

HERBERT, Lucas

Victorious on just his third start as a PGA Tour member having done so twice on the European Tour. Hits it plenty far enough and this could be a nice fit, but again there's been no debut champion here since Daniel Chopra in 2008, and in a field so strong it's very difficult to fancy someone whose wins have been in calmer waters.

HIGGO, Garrick

Young talent who got engaged over Christmas after a fabulous 2021. No, not Collin Morikawa, but a low-key version from South Africa who was rather gifted victory in the Palmetto Championship but nevertheless impressed everyone during a brilliant spring. Has really struggled with his long-game for the last few months, however.

HOMA, Max

Second-time visitor who is a brilliant iron player when on-song, so there's a lot to like in some respects, and worth noting when looking at his scoring average that he played in by far the toughest renewal of this in over a decade. Perhaps would benefit from having another crack when the wind blows and wouldn't be the first name on the list on Bermuda greens, nevertheless has beaten an elite field to win at Riviera and is now a three-time champion who therefore merits respect. Clear pick of those bigger than 50/1.

HORSCHEL, Billy

Produced an excellent weekend for sixth place on debut back in 2014 and shot back-to-back 66s during the middle of last year's easier renewal, so knows how to score here and ended 2021 playing nicely. Another whose best form has come under more demanding conditions but is capable of outstanding iron play and lighting up the greens so wouldn't rule him out. Big year for someone desperate to play for the USA and probably more likely to sneak into a Presidents Cup side.

HOVLAND, Viktor

On a hat-trick after following successful defence of Mayakoba title with imperious display at the Hero, where back-to-back eagles during the back-nine on Sunday were a real statement from one of the world's most promising players. Got a look at this last year and did well until a poor final round, and now returns as the form player in the field, one whose best golf has all come by the coast, and who is certainly armed for a shootout. Hard to spot an obvious negative.

IM, Sungjae

Really started to play well towards the end of 2021, securing what somehow felt like an overdue second PGA Tour title (he's 23!) when dominating the Shriners on Sunday. Pretty much held his form in two starts after and his tee-to-green rankings since the Wyndham read 6-7-5-18-21-1-3-5. Another of those on his preferred Bermuda greens and he'd be a threat to all, having finished fifth on debut at a course which typically takes some learning. Shriners win showcased his versatility with his others, including one in the Bahamas, all under tougher conditions. Main and indeed only real concern would be that he's been off a little longer than some.

JONES, Matt

Impressive Honda Classic winner last spring and while seemingly out of form at the end of the year, note that after 27-38-18 to begin this season, his worst round in two missed cuts thereafter was 71. Probably playing just fine and was 11th here in 2015, plus shot 63-64 over the weekend of the Sony on his last trip to Hawaii. Unlikely to win but does fit the profile of those who've done so on their second visit and could give you a run for your money.

KIM, Si Woo

Enigmatic lunatic who was disappointing on debut in 2017 but then a solid 10th in 2018. Returns thanks to win in the desert at the start of last year and we all know by now he has the tools to compete with the elite when fit and not self-destructing. Last time we saw him played well enough for 18th place in Japan but 10-week break plus fact this isn't the sort of course you'd say is ideal means he's one to watch. Very hopeful he shows good signs then plays the Sony.

KISNER, Kevin

Merely underlined what we already knew when landing the Wyndham Championship (thanks in no small part to others) and has subsequently been very poor, finishing a best of 54th in five starts and missing the cut in all three tournaments which had one. Started brightly when ninth on first of four tries here but would be hard enough to fancy for the Sony Open, let alone this.

KOEPKA, Brooks

67-38-MC-MC to start the season but did show much more when playing his way into the final group at the Hero, where he and Morikawa dragged each other down. Not impossible he presses on from that and bookies again dangling a carrot, perhaps because he's been dreadful on his last two starts here. Was third on debut in 2016 though and that'll be enough to tempt in some acolytes now that he's seemingly close to full fitness again. Appears to have spent Christmas in the snow which is a bit of a worry but we're all guessing.

KOKRAK, Jason

Like Hovland, also in search of a hat-trick albeit far less significant, having followed Houston Open smash-and-grab with victory in the QBE Shootout alongside Kev Na. Debuted here a year ago and showed some good signs over the opening three rounds but I do struggle to see him topping 20-under, even if collecting three or four cheap birdies per round.

LEE, KH

Built on promise to become a PGA Tour winner in 2021, holding off Sam Burns and others to win in Texas where scoring was low. If anything has improved since, producing some really solid golf which has seen him secure top-25 finishes in three of his four starts so far this season. Off since late-October and makes his debut which, given the nature of the tournament, ought to mean that even picking up where he left off would leave him short of the top 10.

LEISHMAN, Marc

Fourth and seventh from just four starts and also has an excellent record in the Sony Open, which isn't surprising given his proven fondness for the coast. Can compete in shootouts, too, especially when putting as well as he was towards the end of 2021, and there are plenty of positives as he finally emerges from a pandemic-induced slump. That said would like to have seen more from his long game, and for there to be more wind in the forecast.

MATSUYAMA, Hideki

Feet up since completing fairy tale year with victory in front of home fans in the ZOZO Championship. Could be a contender here given his record (3-2-4-41) but it's perhaps significant that he'd played the Hero World Challenge prior to all three of those near-misses and I tend to think he's a golfer who particularly improves for a run. No surprise were he to win again early this year, just maybe not this early.

MICKELSON, Phil

Back for the first time since 2001 and in truth showed very little in two previous tries here. That's a little surprising, as a course which correlates with Augusta through uneven lies and little rough should play to his strengths, as should the contours which encourage creativity around the greens. Not seen on the PGA Tour since September but played OK back then and 17th in the WGC in August is another reminder that it's not been totally major-or-bust. Wouldn't want to rule him out entirely.

MORIKAWA, Collin

Running out of superlatives after that astonishing 2021 saw him win a WGC, a major and the Race to Dubai, latterly producing what's now a customary burst of scoring late into Sunday to deny Rory McIlroy and others. Blotted his copybook when surrendering a five-shot lead in the Hero next time and that surely had something to do with the fact he'd have taken top spot in the world rankings with a win. Unlikely that'll serve as a deterrent for much longer and with Hawaiian heritage this would be a fitting place to complete the ascent. Every chance.

NA, Kevin

Has carded some big numbers here in three visits but also a nine-under 64 and while the course is long and wide, it does throw up a lot of wedges and allow players of his kind to stay competitive. Won the QBE Shootout in December, prior to which he'd played poorly in two starts, and will go from here to defend his Sony Open title. No doubt that course does suit a lot better.

POWER, Seamus

Went from conditional status to PGA Tour winner last summer and has held his form since, signing off a fabulous campaign with fourth place in the RSM Classic. Plenty long enough, massively improved with his approach work, brilliant around the greens and previously best known for his putting, the Irishman has a complete game and can continue to progress for all that winning this is probably beyond him.

RAHM, Jon

Runner-up on debut in 2018 as he just failed to emulate compatriot Sergio Garcia, one of the rare debutant winners at this course (and at a time when fewer rivals had experience of it). Has since finished eighth, 10th and seventh, which given his standing and the size of the field goes down as unspectacular, although we should note he had a new set of clubs and a new ball this time last year. Worry would be he's taken a long break and while he's defied something vaguely similar before, he hasn't against the very best in the world. Given that he's a single-figure price, can be opposed for that reason alone, never mind the fact his three starts since the Ryder Cup read MC-17-MC.

REED, Patrick

Unsurprisingly improved back at a course he loves in the Hero Challenge and that's two good efforts by the sea since he was rightly overlooked for a Ryder Cup place. Had some significant health issues around that time, too, so possibly worth upgrading a little and has stacks of course form here including a win in 2015 and two runner-up finishes since then. Only quibble for me would be his price is shorter than the Hero and this is stronger, but he's not alone in that regard and it's probably merited.

SCHAUFFELE, Xander

Gets in the field thanks to Tokyo 2020 win which seems a little absurd given there were no other PGA Tour benefits attached to that non-PGA Tour event, as far as I can see. Nevertheless he's plainly a world-class addition to the field and one with impeccable course credentials, having followed a classic mid-division debut with first, second and fifth. Ought to have won when second, and last year's fifth is also better than it looks as he'd had Covid and was struggling physically, which wasn't surmountable given Kapalua is the hardest walk of the season. This really does look a good chance.

SMITH, Cameron

Could feasibly wedge-putt his way to this and has won nearby in the Sony Open, but 17th and 24th so far don't scream winner-in-waiting and his end-of-2021 form, while excellent, was in keeping with his profile as one who always thrives later on in the year. That awful sentence basically translates to this one: he's not for me this week.

SPIETH, Jordan

Quite hard to weigh up as his course form is outstanding but when last we saw him he lost by fully 24 shots to Hovland when propping up the field in the Hero. The obvious excuse is he'd become a dad a fortnight earlier and I would be happy enough to draw a line through it, while acknowledging that his first Christmas as a parent could produce a similar outcome. The positives are that course record (2-1-3-9, and was second over final 54 holes when ninth) which has been built on quality tee-to-green performances. He is a proper shot-maker who loves a creative challenge like this and Augusta and it wouldn't surprise me at all were he to contend.

THOMAS, Justin

Arguably the man to beat having won this twice and also been third in both 2019 and 2021, latterly when making headlines for all the wrong reasons during the third round. Returns perhaps keen to properly banish those memories by winning the title again and the way he finished the Hero, with an eight-under final round, bodes well. Iron play always his key weapon and that's never been truer than at this course, where over the last three years he's ranked first, second and first in strokes-gained approach. Do that again and he'll surely contend again and start what is a big year in style.

VAN ROOYEN, Erik

Won the Barracuda in August and went on to enjoy a fabulous run in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and all the rewards that brings. Solid if unspectacular since and likely to be found out on his first look at Kapalua.

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