Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the RSM Classic

Golf betting tips: RSM Classic

2pts e.w. Russell Henley at 30/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Alex Noren at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Henrik Norlander at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Tom Hoge at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Hank Lebioda at 150/1 (William Hill, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Bronson Burgoon at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Davis Thompson at 250/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

If you're fortunate enough to ever find yourself playing a round of golf on Sea Island, a luxury resort in Georgia, do be sure to make the most of the facilities before you tee off. Golfers the world over know that sometimes, usually around about the 13th hole and no halfway house in sight, you simply have to go. But if you do that here, you might just be defacing a live oak planted by the likes of George Bush, Tony Blair, or Margaret Thatcher. Perhaps make sport of it, and read the plaque before making your choice.

Relaxation is of course key to getting that task done quickly and efficiently, but it's been the scourge of those punting the PGA Tour event which has been held here for a decade now. The RSM Classic has produced skinner upon skinner, the end-of-term atmosphere cultivated by Davis Love and his barbecue tongs contributing to the randomness that saw Tyler Duncan beat Webb Simpson and, last year, Robert Streb take down Kevin Kisner.

What Tommy Gainey does to relax is his business, but there's another one who contributes to a roguish roll-of-honour. Gainey shot 60 here in the final round back in 2012, rendering the private duel between David Toms and Jim Furyk utterly pointless. Subsequently we've seen Charles Howell win for the first time in 11 years against a player who made the cut on the number, Billy Horschel miss a tiny putt as Mackenzie Hughes took a five-man play-off, and Briny Baird's excruciating implosion just as a first PGA Tour win had seemed at last to be coming his way.

It's just a bit of an odd event, made more so by the two-course format introduced in 2015. The first renewal played under such circumstances hinted at something more predictable, as in-form Kisner won by six. Since then, only rookie Austin Cook has managed to break the play-off spell as he also dominated soon after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour. Like Kisner, he's a fairways-first golfer prone to hot putting streaks, and at least in that we have a formula with which to work.

Part of Scottie Scheffler's brilliance is that as well as possessing plenty of power, he's above-average in accuracy. That driving skill was back on show in Mexico and again last week in Houston, making him the form golfer in the field, and having been fifth here two years ago he has virtually everything in his favour. Perhaps the Texan will bounce back quickly from Sunday's disappointment and avoid suffering a fate similar to that of Simpson and Kisner.

But 12/1 shots in the RSM Classic need to be named Jon Rahm if they're to be seriously compelling, and while everyone wants to be on Scheffler when the inevitable happens, nobody should lose sleep if they miss him this week. Here, Simpson is a better bet, though his iron play was poor last time and there's a feeling he's just been a little below his best for most of the year, hence his failure to catch Steve Stricker's eye as Scheffler did.

Swede success at Sea Island?

Cameron Smith will enjoy this but he's no 16/1 shot and there really are only two players remotely interesting to me at shorter than 66/1. Both make the staking plan, and I'll cover them in reverse order as ALEX NOREN is considered the standout bet in the field.

• CLICK HERE to back Noren with Sky Bet

Noren has had a good 2021, without quite elevating his play to the levels required to make the European Ryder Cup side. There are some who would argue he ought to have been under strong consideration, though, as while he never really looked like winning, the Swede played to a consistently high standard, perhaps paying the price for doing so out of the spotlight.

Right now he's on a nice run of cuts made dating back to the Open, and it's notable how often he's contended at some stage: four of his subsequent eight starts, to be precise, flirting with the lead in the Olympics, The Northern Trust, the Dunhill Links, and two starts back at the ZOZO Championship.

When last we saw him he played well for three rounds in the Mayakoba, where soft conditions made it more of a power contest than has previously been the case. Despite a poor final round, Noren's performance there was a significant upgrade on his only other visit, and therefore reflects wider progress which now has him back on the verge of the world's top 50.

That's a significant goal which can provide key motivation at this time of year, and Noren needs vindication having seemingly abandoned the European Tour where he's now without status. Victory here in the RSM Classic, where he's been 10th and 18th in two appearances so far, would provide him that while Race to Dubai honours are being fought for elsewhere.

I certainly take the view that he's in a better place than prior to either of these two efforts, his trajectory up rather than down as it was when 10th here in 2019. And while he's a little more dependent on his short-game than I tend to prefer, that's no bad thing across these two short, coastal courses, ones which really ought to play to the strengths of a former Scottish Open winner who has so often played well by the sea.

Noren's scoring average over the last two years puts him behind only Simpson and Kisner, the latter the subject of a big gamble on Monday. Meanwhile, this classy, multiple winner appears to have gone unnoticed, and yet he looks the best bet of the week to me.

No excuses for in-form Henley

RUSSELL HENLEY is the other prominent name who has to go in the staking plan with this an excellent chance to capitalise on the improvements he's made to his long-game.

• CLICK HERE to back Henley with Sky Bet

Henley ranked sixth in strokes-gained approach last season and is first so far this, putting him up there with the mighty Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas. That he's not managed to win despite this reflects an equal downturn in his putting, flipping his profile on its head. Back in 2013, Henley ranked eighth for the season — these days he struggles to reach the top 100.

That said, there have been some indications that his former strength could at some stage return, particularly on Bermuda greens. At the Honda Classic back in March he led the field, which helped secure his best result of the year as he finished third to runaway winner Matt Jones. At the Wyndham, three months ago, he was a solid 27th and again hit the frame. Last week, 12th in putting helped him to seventh overall. When he putts well he places, the exception being the US Open which he led before nerves got the better of him.

All three of those PGA Tour performances listed came on the Bermudagrass with which he's so familiar, on which he's so comfortable. When he won the Honda back in 2014, he'd just returned to the east coast having been frustrated out west, where you won't find any Bermuda unless you keep going to Hawaii, where he'd already won previously. Also victorious in Houston, we all know the drill by now where Henley is concerned.

To put numbers on this, Henley is half a stroke per round better on Bermuda than he is other surfaces, or has been lately. Over the course of his career the gap is narrower but no less clear, and there's perhaps a self-fulfilling element to it, too: Henley feels like he's a better putter on Bermuda, and therefore putts with greater freedom.

Whatever the case, this southern golfer has his conditions at Sea Island, where he was fourth, sixth and 10th at the beginning of his career, and found form again to finish a solid 30th last November. His association with the venue actually dates back to 2010, when he starred for Georgia in the SEC Championship at the host Seaside Course, and he's ready now to complete the circle.

Roll the dice in final event of 2021

With those two on-side, and neither Matt Kuchar nor Patrick Rodgers nor Chris Kirk quite interesting enough at the prices, I'll skip straight to those offered at three-figures. Last week it felt likely the winner would be among the big names, and despite the best efforts of 2,000/1 chance Martin Trainer that eventually proved correct. This time, we'll surely see several outsiders work their way into contention at some point.

The one I like most is TOM HOGE, very much the kind of no-frills golfers who has tended to thrive here in the past.

• CLICK HERE to back Hoge with Sky Bet

Hoge has done it himself, finishing ninth in 2015 when third best at the Seaside Course only to fail to take advantage of one round at Plantation. He shot a first-round 64 back then and while less effective since, there has been encouragement throughout and his 68.41 scoring average stacks up nicely.

With some of his best golf coming at the Sony Open and down in Mexico, Hoge is best on short courses like these two and since finishing a career-best fourth in The Northern Trust back in August, he's continued to play well. All told he's made six of seven cuts this season, impressing in particular with his approaches to rank fourth, not far behind Henley.

Last week, on a massive course which so clearly favoured big-hitters like Jason Kokrak, Hoge was the third-best iron player in the field. He finished mid-pack because he doesn't hit it miles and because his putter let him down, and I suspect it'll dictate how well he does here, because his iron play has been so reliable and so good for quite a while now.

He's generally putted well here in the past and Bermuda has been his best surface historically, so this capable maiden looks to have enough in his favour to roll the dice at 100/1 and bigger.

HANK LEBIODA can hopefully be relied upon to make his share and the left-hander could be nicely set up for a personal best at Sea Island.

• CLICK HERE to back Lebioda with Sky Bet

Lebioda has upped his game this year, top-five finishes in the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage Classic the best two performances of his career, and the likes of 13th in the Valspar and last week's 15th place in Houston not too far behind.

I put him up for the recent Bermuda Championship and argued that a run of missed cuts was misleading, his game still in good shape. Unfortunately he was on the wrong side of the draw there but having missed another cut on the number in Mexico, where he carded a second-round 66, things fell into place at Memorial Park.

Despite the course being longer than is ideal, Lebioda got his approach play and putting working in tandem once more to finish a good 15th, and that sets him up nicely for a return to an event he's played well in when far less comfortable and indeed capable than he is today.

Back in 2018, Lebioda had missed five cuts running but came to Sea Island and shot four rounds in the sixties, while a year later he added three more before a final-round 71 saw him drop a few places to 30th. Last year, again outside the world's top 300 and with a stronger field assembled, he shot 71-68 to miss by one.

Good in the wind, as he's demonstrated in past visits to Bermuda, the Floridian has built a strong platform and can outrun his odds by some margin if building on last week.

The other reasonably sensible selection I have is HENRIK NORLANDER, who was part of the five-man play-off won by Hughes back in 2016.

• CLICK HERE to back Norlander with Sky Bet

Since then, Norlander has placed again in the 2019 edition, his form prior to it reading MC-MC-MC-MC-45-28-41. Two years on and he's been fourth and 18th from five starts so far this season, making the cut in all four events which had one and closing with a round of 64 at the ZOZO Championship.

Last week's course was too long for a fairways-and-greens type who is capable of outstanding iron play when he's on, a fact demonstrated by his field-leading performance in the Sanderson Farms last month. Here at Sea Island he's made the cut on all four starts since narrowly missing on debut, and after not getting into the field a year ago he'll be itching to return.

Norlander went to college in Georgia and still resides there so this is something of a home game, and as with Henley while his putter isn't always reliable, it's best on Bermuda. He can be a little hard to predict but shorter courses are undeniably the place to start, and he should be looking forward to this suitable challenge.

Love for Davis...

Less sensibly, Jim Herman came into consideration having often caught the eye here. Herman is a three-time PGA Tour winner under largely similar conditions, and he's been playing reasonably for a while now. Perhaps he's one to watch in-play given his strike-rate, but seven and eight places make him hard to leave out.

Veteran Vaughn Taylor has a good record at Sea Island and was undone by the draw when selected in Bermuda so he too is worth a second glance, while Lee Hodges and Greyson Sigg are capable youngsters with local ties, but I'll side with the even greater potential of DAVIS THOMPSON.

• CLICK HERE to back Thompson with Sky Bet

Considered by some to be one of the brightest young talents in the US, Thompson turned professional this summer and has made six cuts in eight starts, failing only when putting terribly in the Travelers Championship and then in the final event of the season at the Wyndham.

He was selected on these pages when leading after round one of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has since dropped more hints, driving the ball notably well when 31st in the Barbasol Championship and 35th last time we saw him at the Sanderson Farms.

Playing without status, Thompson has been off since so there's something to be taken on trust, but one thing is certain: he'll have been preparing here at Sea Island. Thompson has been a regular part of the elite practice games which happen across these courses and Ocean Forest, and his father is the RSM Classic tournament director.

Local knowledge helped him to finish 23rd in the 2019 renewal, remarkably leading the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green as as amateur. Those stats are taken only from the 54 holes played at the Seaside Course, over which Thompson was 10th, undone by a quiet day at Plantation.

Now with some quietly impressive PGA Tour form behind him, he returns for his third try at this tournament and it's not at all beyond him to justify a sponsors' invite and contend.

Finally, though loathe to put forward seven selections, I'll sign off the final event of the year with BRONSON BURGOON.

• CLICK HERE to back Burgoon with Sky Bet

It's true that the Texan relied on a brilliant 61 at the Plantation Course when contending here last year, but he held firm at the Seaside Course on Saturday and was right in the mix heading into the final round.

Though fading to 15th, it was by some way Burgoon's standout performance of 2020, and that's key: he's playing better now. Granted, two missed cuts in four confirm he's hardly reliable, but 16th in the Fortinet Championship was a good start to the new season, and he again struck his irons well when 35th in Houston last week.

It's noticeable how far Burgoon's approach play has come over the last few months and doubtless that helps explain why he was able to finish second in the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship during Korn Ferry Tour Finals, ensuring he earned back his card. From that collection of players, Lucas Herbert has already won, Patrick Rodgers has certainly stepped up, and so have Sahith Theegala and J.J. Spaun.

This is the time of year that new graduates and those who took their second chance need to capitalise, and Burgoon has in the past when second in the low-scoring CIMB Classic. If his approaches continue to fire, this sweet-swinging underachiever can work is way into the mix once more.

Posted at 0945 GMT on 16/11/21

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