Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Italian Open

Golf betting tips: Italian Open

3pts win Tommy Fleetwood at 18/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. Francesco Molinari at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Martin Kaymer at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Thomas Pieters at 60/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Min Woo Lee at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Nicolas Colsaerts at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Alvaro Quiros at 350/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Some time between Robert MacIntyre's top-10 finish at the Open and Kevin Kisner's play-off victory at the Wyndham, Ryder Cup fever set in. Since then, the biennial team event, by which it must legally be referred to at second mention, has bounced between the back and front of everyone's mind. Birdie the first couple of holes of a decent tournament, and chances are you will become someone's idea of a wild card.

If it's too much for you then get checking the green list for a short holiday, because the next fortnight is going to 'go off' as they say in Ibiza, recently downgraded to amber. The fact that Marco Simone Golf & Country Club hosts the Italian Open is not going to help matters, either, because the Ryder Cup comes here in 2023. There is no escape and nor will there be until October.

Sunday brought high drama courtesy of Bernd Wiesberger's shocking finish in Crans, where having watched Marcel Siem skull a bunker shot into the grandstand, he chunked one from the same spot into the pond guarding the 18th green.

Had Wiesberger made par he would've won his ninth European Tour title, and in so doing given himself two paths to Padraig Harrington's team. Instead he made double to lose by one, and now has to repair that damage very quickly and go again over a fortnight which could yield that surprise name in a team which had appeared close to set until things, those things, started to happen.

The best non-PGA Tour member in the field on form in the book, he would be thoroughly deserving of a long-awaited Ryder Cup debut if winning this event for a second time, but 20/1 from 22s in a stronger field, on the back of the biggest disappointment of his career, makes no appeal in a market where returning pair Matthew Fitzpatrick and TOMMY FLEETWOOD are the only names in front of him.

• CLICK HERE to back Fleetwood with Sky Bet

Fitzpatrick has won at a rate of once in every 14 or so European Tour starts and is 14/1 with the added insurance of seven or eight places. He certainly isn't a bad price, having lost a play-off for the Scottish Open on his last appearance at this level, and he has a score to settle having seemingly been in command of this two years ago before Wiesberger mugged him on the back-nine.

Travel issues notwithstanding — it seems he'll be on the lookout for a new five-wood — he has to be considered having been a factor on each and every visit to Italy, twice finishing in the top three from just five starts in this event.

Fleetwood's strike-rate is less impressive, but with his driving having improved lately he might just prove capable of stepping up a gear and following the lead of Viktor Hovland, Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton and Fitzpatrick, all of whom have shown that returning from the PGA Tour to an event like this in Europe represents a sizeable drop in grade.

Indeed Fleetwood underlined the point himself last year, narrowly losing out in both Portugal and Scotland and finishing 10th, 17th and 26th with something like his C game in the Middle East. Since then he's had chances in the Arnold Palmer and WGC Match Play, but this is dated form and only briefly has he flirted with the lead in a couple of European Tour appearances and when representing the UK at the Olympics.

However I can't escape the notion that Marco Simone could be an ideal fit, because to my eye this soon-to-be Ryder Cup venue shares much in common with its European predecessors in Wales, Scotland, and France. Its stadium-like nature in particular brings to mind Celtic Manor, where Fleetwood has been second, as well as Le Golf National, where he was an Open de France champion before going 4-1-0 in the Ryder Cup.

With a victory to his name at Gleneagles back in 2013, and similarities between these courses and Abu Dhabi, where he's twice won at Rolex Series level, the popular Englishman may discover an immediate level of comfort which has been lacking while trying to find the right schedule and spend as much time at home with his family as his career allows.

His game has plainly suffered post-shutdown, but there have been forward steps with the driver of late and that's the club he needs to get right in order for everything else to fall into place. If he does manage to do so, there's plenty in his favour and we've no reason to be worried about a few weeks off given both those victories in Abu Dhabi came following a break for Christmas.

At 7,268 yards, this par 71 looks set to be a decent test and will likely demand more drivers than Le Golf National, which is the epitome of a positional course. That might be against a resurgent Henrik Stenson whereas it ought to suit Sean Crocker, who has confirmed once again that any kind of short-game and he'd be one of the best players on the circuit.

The trouble is in trying to work out when that short-game might click and at the prices I would rather chance Fleetwood's Ryder Cup partner, FRANCESCO MOLINARI, who ought to be really popular at 40 and 50/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Molinari with Sky Bet

There are of course concerns as to the overall state of his game, the Italian having struggled since an encouraging start to the year, but Friday's second-round 64 in Switzerland offered plenty of encouragement that he's not too far away. Prior to it, he'd started well in both the Wyndham and the Open, made the halfway cut in Scotland, and in June finished 13th in the US Open.

Put another way he's a classic example of a player whose form could look a heck of a lot stronger for a shot here or there, those MCs perhaps a red herring, and after a nice finish in the Alps he looks to have tuned up for a big fortnight in events which laid the foundations for his breakthrough summer in 2018.

Molinari junior won this event in 2006 and 2016, first when ranked outside the world's top 200 and then when returning to Europe following a poor run on the PGA Tour. As well as those two victories he has five further top-10s and has been inside the top 25 in 12 of his 19 appearances in his national Open. There is absolutely no doubt he has raised his game time and again when back in Italy.

This will be a particularly emotional return given what's happened over the last couple of years, during which time he's moved his family from London to California. It was in California at the US Open that he saw his brother Edoardo for the first time since 2019, and perhaps that reunion played a part in both of them faring really well at Torrey Pines.

With crowds returning, there would be nothing quite like Molinari finding his best and having ranked ninth in strokes-gained approach last week, there's been just about enough in his play this summer to suggest he's capable if taking to Marco Simone.

Given that he's a three-time runner-up at Le Golf National, where he famously went 5-0-0 in the Ryder Cup, and has top-10s at both Celtic Manor and the Stadium Course at Sawgrass, I'm hopeful he can add victory in Rome to those two he's already bagged in Milan.

If this course plays nothing like those mentioned, chances are we'll have to forget this ever happened, as it's for similar reasons that MARTIN KAYMER gets another go.

Kaymer has had several chances to end what's now a seven-year drought since returning to the European Tour last autumn, and he made an eye-catching comeback following six weeks away when 18th in Switzerland. Ultimately, the difference between that and contending was how he played the easy holes, having given winner Rasmus Hojgaard eight shots across the par-fives and conceded ground to everyone ahead of him.

• CLICK HERE to back Kaymer with Sky Bet

There were certainly plenty of positives to take out of the performance, not least a continuation of his strong approach play and increasingly effective putting, and Kaymer might be able to build on them in an event he should've won in 2015 and one in which he has managed top-eight finishes in four of his eight starts.

He's won both at Sawgrass and Le Golf National as well as three good efforts from as many starts at Celtic Manor, and with Ryder Cup vice-captaincy looming will be among those aware that winning one of these next two events could yet change things. Many will have given up on him but I wouldn't be one of them and his overall level of form is very strong, albeit missing that piece of silverware.

In a less obvious way, THOMAS PIETERS did enough with two rounds of 70 to suggest he too can prompt trigger-happy tweeters (ahem) to get carried away with a big performance here.

Pieters was an outstanding Ryder Cup debutant in 2016 and, joking aside, is the sort of absolute wild card who will not yet be under consideration, but perhaps should be. He has all the talent in the world and it was under the unique atmosphere of the competition that we saw the best demonstration of what he can do.

Whether he struggles for motivation, whether it really is his temper which holds him back or whether it's simply that his short-game isn't good enough, the Belgian has spent the last five years on the periphery but let's not forget he has five professional wins on his CV at the age of 29, and has gone close in more than one major.

• CLICK HERE to back Pieters with Sky Bet

Under the right circumstances he can boss a field like this and Marco Simone may provide them in a way that Crans, where his record now reads MC-60-MC-12-MC, does not. Certainly he's got the power for all three par-fives, including the downhill 18th which stretches beyond 600 yards, and a couple of short par-fours may allow him to open up his shoulders and go for the green.

His form at Celtic Manor reads 3-15, he's gone 29-DQ-16-13-31 in Paris where he's not able to hit his favourite club very often, and he's been in contention for this title having played in the final group at halfway three years ago. With his putting much better than it has been and the driver really starting to purr, if he can dial in his approaches again he can be a big threat at the sort of modern, exposed course he so clearly enjoys.

Pieters' two wins at Albatros could be a decent guide and it's there and the London Club which may provide the best up-to-date form pointers. As such, Callum Shinkwin is on the radar as one of the very best drivers on the European Tour and he's also played well at Celtic Manor, but at similar odds MIN WOO LEE is preferred.

It's not an exaggeration to say that this powerful Australian, already a two-time winner on the European Tour, could go on to prove himself world-class. He certainly was as an amateur and he's done extremely well to achieve all that he has as a professional, not least because as an Aussie during this pandemic it's been very hard to plot and stick to a schedule.

The shots he hit to beat Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry in a play-off for the Scottish Open were of the very highest order and it might now be time to reassess where he belongs in the betting, in anticipation that he leaves this level behind in the coming years.

• CLICK HERE to back Lee with Sky Bet

Nothing he's done since winning deters me from that view. First of all he confessed to being exhausted at the Open, for which he qualified just days earlier with that win in Scotland, and from there he had to fly to Tennessee for the WGC-St Jude Invitational. Sensibly, he took a break after finishing down the field there and returned just last week at Crans, a course which takes away the advantages he has at what you might call normal tour venues.

Three good rounds in four suggest he's ready to kick on, and he's sure to find this longer, less claustrophobic course much more to his liking. It was following three good rounds in four in Ireland that he won in Scotland, and history could well repeat in Italy, where he doesn't concede an experience edge which was again true at The Renaissance, only used twice previously.

Lee has it all, as a long driver known for his ball-striking but who relied on his short-game for that breakthrough in July. At a modern course which he can likely overpower, prices north of 50/1 look generous.

French trio Antoine Rozner, Alex Levy and Victor Perez are respected along with Brandon Stone and Matt Wallace, the latter having done well in this event following on from his success in Italy on the Alps Tour. He has a new caddie on the bag and a long-term view of his form puts him closer to his more illustrious compatriots than the market.

That said there's a chance this course does really favour big-hitters and if that's the case, speculative plays on NICOLAS COLSAERTS and ALVARO QUIROS could provide us with some each-way interest at the weekend.

Colsaerts has a fabulous record in Italy, with four top-five finishes in this and a couple more in the Sicilian Open. He's also played well at Celtic Manor to finish fourth, and of course won when last the European Tour visited Le Golf National.

• CLICK HERE to back Colsaerts with Sky Bet

All of that put him on the radar before closer inspection revealed he shot two 65s at Crans to finish 18th, matching his best rounds there and producing just his second top-20 in 13 visits. It was encouraging to see his approach work fire for three of the four rounds and who knows where he'd have finished but for a shocking quadruple-bogey on Friday, his only bad mistake of the tournament.

Before that, Colsaerts also offered real encouragement with his iron play to finish 18th in the Cazoo Open and with his putter having warmed up with every start so far this summer, having taken some time off at the start of the year, he looks in a good place ahead of his return to a tournament which has been kind to him.

As for Quiros, he's back with his old coach in a bid to keep his career alive and having kept grinding through some setbacks earlier on this season, he'd managed two top-20 finishes in four starts prior to hitting the ball as well as he has in years at the Cazoo Classic.

But for a double-bogey at the 72nd hole it might've been three top-20s in five and during this run he's made 28 birdies for 13th in the Hero Open, while also taking 18th in a Scottish Open which featured Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas. It's much better, and offers hope of a late salvage job from 172nd on the Race to Dubai.

• CLICK HERE to back Quiros with Sky Bet

Quiros has his back against the wall having hinted that he might quit if he can't hang onto his card, and a player of his class might just be dangerous in the situation he's in. So while there's none of that Celtic Manor or Paris form in the book, I'll take encouragement from a win on a big-hitters' course in Sicily, plus the fact he ranked seventh off the tee in Wales and seventh with his approaches a week earlier in Scotland.

Marry those two and Quiros, who has putted the lights out a couple of times recently, might just rise from the ashes as he has done more than once in the past.

Posted at 1835 BST on 30/08/21

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