Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Indoor Golf Group Challenge

Golf betting tips: Indoor Golf Group Challenge

2pts e.w. Niklas Lemke at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Bjorn Akesson at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Tobias Eden at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Haraldur Magnus at 225/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

0.5pt e.w. Chris Wood at 250/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In last year's preview of the Indoor Golf Group Challenge, I wrote about how a popular (and excellent) golf database has a rare blindspot which would give us a potential edge over the bookmaker. Twelve months on, that blindspot remains, and it's a question of whether you believe it could again lead to something come Sunday.

Form for this week's event is correctly attributed from last year's, but those that the Nordic Golf League played here have been mislabelled. Essentially, the ones which took place at Vesterby Links, this week's course, are missing. Showing where they should be are a string of form figures from an adjacent course, the Classic.

While we didn't land the winner, three of the eventual top six in the 2023 Indoor Golf Group Challenge, all at big prices, had far better course form than you might have thought. Jeppe Kristian Andersen was listed as a debutant but had been runner-up. Charlie Lindh's MC-MC-MC including a round of 83 would've put anyone off, but it should've read MC-MC-5-20, a run he improved further by finishing fourth.

Jesper Sandborg is one option for those keen to take advantage as not only has he won at Vesterby Links, but he did so as recently as June and by a convincing three shots. It's his home course, too, a fact Sky Bet seem aware of given that they chalked him up considerably shorter than bet365, who have since revised their estimate.

Sandborg has now won twice this year and is in much better form than at any stage previously, so while he's a 31-year-old who hasn't yet been a factor on the Challenge Tour, he's got a couple of things in his favour for this latest try and was a big price initially with that course knowledge overlooked.

At what's now a much bigger one, TOBIAS EDEN makes more appeal.

• CLICK HERE to back Eden with Sky Bet

He had a rotten time of things in 2023, when a DP World Tour Q-School graduate so clearly out of his depth. Still, Eden was a decent enough amateur for a time and it's a bit early to be writing him off altogether.

Now trying to make the most of what have been limited Challenge Tour opportunities, he was right in the mix after an opening 66 in Finland last week and backers would've still held onto hopes of a return entering the final round, where he faded slightly.

We can forgive him that given the circumstances (he missed every cut in 2023 and his confidence must've been shot) and four cuts made in six Challenge Tour starts is a decent level of form. As well as that, from just five previous goes at this level, he contended on home soil here in Sweden in the Dormy Open, so there are plenty of signs that he really is good enough.

Tenth behind Sandborg in June, he's also been ninth at this course and these from just three appearances, whereas those form figures (43-45) attached to his profile are from next door. He's going to need much more but at huge odds, given how close he was at times last week, I can't resist taking a small chance now back in Sweden at a course he knows well.

In a rare act of prescience, I wrote ahead of the Finnish Challenge that Oliver Gillberg's propensity to throw in one shocking round was off-putting, and he fell from the places to 42nd after a closing 76.

He was in my staking plan for this event last year owing to the fact that his positive course form was hidden from view, but that was at 200/1 and we're now being asked to take 50s. He's long had potential and could definitely win this, but he'll have to do so without our support.

Per Langfors has good form at both courses and that inadvertently leads to about the right price, whereas the promising Albin Bergstrom was runner-up to Sandborg and definitely has a higher ceiling having been bordering on a top-class amateur before turning pro two summers ago.

The slight worry with him is he played poorly from the lead in the final round that week, something he repeated a couple of starts back, and he missed the cut badly in a low-grade affair last time. He might just have gone off the boil and it's not as though he's been put in at an enormous price to make that risk worthwhile.

Tobias Jonsson is a good amateur right now as was David Nyfjall before turning pro, and the latter's best result so far came in this event last year. Given that he'd won an amateur event by a dozen shots around Vesterby, beating Ludvig Aberg, that makes sense and he was right in the thick of things at halfway last week before fading.

Adam Wallin impressed at the Scandinavian Mixed when 29th and has since lost a play-off in Denmark on the NGL, that in just his second pro start, so he's another youngster from a country which produces plenty of good ones and I do think we're likely to see a strong Swedish presence on this leaderboard.

Of those listed, only Wallin and Nyfjall came close to selection.

Wallin is the one I'm most intrigued by as it's only a couple of months since he was performing well for Ohio State at the NCAA finals, beating Gordon Sargent and losing to another top amateur. He ranked second in distance in the Scandinavian Mixed, has a swing to die for, and I'd have been chancing him had he been missed by the market at 100s or bigger, because he could be very good.

As it is, that performance on his DPWT debut is reflected in his position in the market so for all the talk here, and all the hidden course form which you can uncover, the only outsider who interests me because of it is Eden, a 200/1 chance who could very easily miss the cut. Still, time well spent eh?

Powerful Lemke has home advantage

There are other angles to pursue including the fact that while this course is short, it does feature four par-fives and a couple of par-fours that can be reduced to very little. It's not always true that long courses play into the hands of long drivers and around this one, the combination of wide fairways and firm greens, which are often raised, means those with shorter clubs for their approach shots may well be favoured.

Last year saw powerhouses Jesper Svensson, Tom Lewis, Lucas Bjerregaard, Ivan Cantero and Marco Penge all feature along with several others who are above average off the tee, including the winner, Max Rottluff, who leads to another possible way in: Saadiyat Beach. It's not just that he'd won there in the UAE, it's not just that it's an exposed, modern, links-inspired course, it's that he said Vesterby Links is 'as close to Saadiyat as we’re probably going to see in Europe'.

Rottluff in the end did well to fend off the locals, by which I mean Scandinavians. Since then, we've had a Norwegian win in Denmark and, last week, a Swede win in Finland, while a Finn won in Sweden a year ago, and a Swede won this in 2022. While Rottluff's win serves as a cautionary tale, five of the next six were from Denmark or Sweden. In the Finnish Challenge, two Swedes pretty much had it between them, finishing first and tied second.

NIKLAS LEMKE is a big-hitting Swede who was 25th at Saadiyat earlier this year so he very much fits the bill and I love him for this at 40/1 with the bigger firms playing six places, and he's even 50s with a few smaller ones paying five.

• CLICK HERE to back Lemke with Sky Bet

No doubt an underachiever considering his exploits at Arizona State and generally tall reputation, Lemke turned 40 in April and I'm interested to see whether he can properly reignite the flame after a decent few seasons on the DP World Tour rather petered out last year.

At his best, he played plenty of good golf on largely exposed courses such as Education City, Doha, Santa Ponsa, Dom Pedro and Hillside so while we've no record of any kind at Vesterby Links, I'd be hopeful that it's suitable.

I doubt it's his first time here, though, because we're about 15 minutes from where he was born and he did play at the adjacent Classic course back in 2017, when very much demonstrating that he's always been too good for the Nordic Golf League.

He's certainly up to going close on the Challenge Tour and while yet to do so in 2024, he's made nine of his last 10 cuts, has two top-10s, was the halfway leader in Spain, and entered the final round in Finland in a share of fifth before fading on Sunday.

That 25th at Saadiyat came after back-to-back missed cuts to start the year, since which point he's played plenty of good golf. It's a shame his top-10 at the Classic is probably having some kind of influence on his price here due to that data mix-up but there's no way any allowance has been made for this being a homecoming and as a player I do like, that makes him the headline bet.

Tapio Pulkkanen and Alex Levy make the shortlist if you tap into that Saadiyat angle and want another of the favourites on-side but so does HARALDUR MAGNUS and he's a massive price 150/1 and upwards.

• CLICK HERE to back Magnus with Sky Bet

Magnus was 25th at Saadiyat on debut and confirmed his liking for it when ninth earlier this year, while in-between these two efforts he also made his Vesterby debut and finished a very respectable 23rd.

The obvious issue is a run of missed cuts but not all are equal, and his run of near-misses is striking: by one after a bad finish in France, by two after an even worse finish in Northern Ireland, by one again in Ireland, and by one again in Finland where he made just a solitary bogey in 36 holes.

Before this sequence he'd been 29th in France, 13th in Denmark and played OK in Spain following that standout top-10 at Saadiyat, so while it'll have been enormously frustrating over these past few weeks, from our perspective we're backing a player whose best golf is almost certainly closer than it appears at a glance.

Bjorn again?

I've mentioned far too many players already (always show your working out, they used to say, before people hated words) but what I must add is that this is about as weak a field as you'll find on the Challenge Tour, because a number of the leading players are taking part in the corresponding Danish Golf Championship on the DP World Tour.

Whether that translates to a classy winner like Levy or Pulkkanen, or opens things up for someone at a big price, time will tell, but at the odds I'm compelled to add BJORN AKESSON who sort of covers both descriptions.

• CLICK HERE to back Akesson with Sky Bet

I'd expected Akesson to be too short but he's 50/1 with Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power and that looks a bit of a gift. Last week he was shorter at 33/1 generally, shorter still with one firm who put him among the favourites, and he played plenty of good golf only to pay the price for two bad holes to begin his second round.

We were on in better company three starts back at 66-80/1 and while he missed the cut, he was fifth the following week to demonstrate that his game is in generally good shape, as it has been since he won for us in South Africa at the start of the season.

That was on an exposed, linksy golf course where wind was a factor and we don't have to guess that he'll take to Vesterby, because he was fifth on his sole previous start here. Again, that has likely been missed by the layers.

At 19th in the Road to Mallorca standings and with nine of those ahead of him absent, this is a fabulous opportunity in what's his first start in his native Sweden since 2023, when he won twice in 10 starts on home soil. The field is weaker than both previous occasions I've put him up and this is a player who has developed a handy knack of winning, so down to 33s he's a bet.

I mentioned last week the possibility that French golfers might be worth a close look after an inspiring Olympic Games and while David Ravetto wasn't on my shortlist, Levy was. Ravetto won and, arguably, Levy should've done.

Benjamin Hebert flew home for fourth in Finland and while not the biggest of hitters, he showed enough here last year to suggest it's a decent fit for a multiple-time Challenge Tour winner who lost a play-off on the main circuit at modern links course The Renaissance.

Hebert was among my selections for this in what was a stronger renewal twelve months ago. This much weaker one coincides with a run of much better form, with two top-fives in his last five starts and several other good performances since he was sixth at Saadiyat.

Pierre Pineau, who has justified early-season expectations while also managing to make costly late mistakes on two occasions now, is also likely to play well. He's good in the wind and his short-game, which is exceptional, could be particularly handy if conditions are as difficult as they seem set to be.

That said I can't see much juice in the prices of either player so it's back to those at massive odds to side with CHRIS WOOD.

• CLICK HERE to back Wood with Sky Bet

It's been a tough five years for the former BMW PGA champion but since getting four rounds under his belt at Saadiyat he's made seven cuts in eight starts, which represents genuine progress. The exception was in Denmark where he wasn't far away at all.

He's started to take the next steps forward in the subsequent weeks and among his last three Challenge Tour starts, he's been 22nd and 24th in stronger fields, the latter in the Scottish Challenge. The first three home in that event are playing the DP World Tour this week; last week, two of them contended at that level.

Wood also featured in Open qualifying at his home course, where he was sailing along until one loose drive resulted in a lost ball. He was grouped with his friend Justin Rose that day, Rose of course having subsequently qualified and gone on to almost win the thing at Troon.

Here's what Rose had to say about Wood's progress.

"My dream scenario would have been both of us qualifying today," he told Mirror Sport. "Chris has been through a lot in the past five years and it probably feels longer for him. But I saw good signs from him in his game today.

"I think he’s working hard and I think he’s coming out of it. I think it’s hard when you are a member of a club and you have that home support as well. There would have been a lot of pressure to do himself proud and he stood up and hit a lot of golf shots.

"I really hope better things are ahead for Chris. I think he’s got a really good coach on the bag and he’s keeping it simple. I think Chris has unfortunately fallen foul of maybe not being given the right advice from the right coach at the right time and it’s amazing how you can get yourself in a muddle. I think he’s digging his way out of it."

Wood now gets a drop in grade after his best results in almost three years, and he plays a course with the word 'links' in the title – remember, before he became best known for his superb Wentworth triumph, he'd been fifth and third in his first two Opens (very much the forgotten man of Turnberry 2009, along with Matt Goggin), and won at Doha, a course for links specialists.

With the wind up here in Sweden, it may not take much to go from those top-25s in better company to contending in this. If he can keep the ball in play off the tee, then why not? Rose's words of encouragement must've been heartening and there may be light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully he reaches it this week.

Posted at 0915 BST on 21/08/24

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