Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the DP World Tour Championship

Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship

2.5pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Victor Perez at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Whichever way you dress it, Jon Rahm's withdrawal from the DP World Tour Championship robs the event of a player who really ought to be there. That isn't to criticise the Spaniard, still no doubt adjusting to fatherhood at the end of a whirlwind year which saw him become a major winner, and then prove unable to carry his side to victory in the Ryder Cup. Week after week he's been involved in the story of 2021 in men's golf.

But Rahm is Europe's best player, and he's passed up the opportunity to win the Race to Dubai for a second time. He is a student of the sport's history, a brilliant ambassador for golf in Spain, and has spoken of his desire to emulate Seve Ballesteros in whichever ways he can. If the European Tour cannot attract him to an event which would've allowed him to close in on his idol, who won the money list three times, there's a problem.

Viktor Hovland is also out. Officially Europe's third-best player, unofficially its next big hope in terms of winning major championships, the Norwegian was willing to fly in from Georgia to take part in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, but not to come to the Middle East. Like Justin Rose, who has chosen the RSM Classic over this, Hovland will play the invitation-only Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas two weeks from now.

What should be a world-class tournament is instead a slightly underwhelming hodgepodge, featuring two Americans who lead the Race to Dubai standings, affiliate member Will Zalatoris who gets in via some kind of loophole, and rogue duo Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia, who have been granted exemptions to play, but can't collect Race to Dubai points in what is the Race to Dubai finale.

The main prize will as a result likely go to either Collin Morikawa or Billy Horschel, first and second in the standings. Whoever does triumph will be the first American to win what was the Order of Merit, and it's advantage Morikawa. In straightforward terms he has a nice cushion and is the superior player. He also has a course experience edge over Horschel, and at 15/2 could well seal it in style by winning both the DP World Tour Championship and the Race to Dubai.

Morikawa cedes favouritism to Rory McIlroy, however, and on these terms that makes perfect sense. McIlroy is a two-time winner at the Earth Course, where he's clear in scoring average by fully two strokes per tournament. Ten times McIlroy has played here, and just four of his 40 rounds have been over-par. He's as comfortable in the desert as anywhere, a point he underlined by winning the CJ Cup last time out, and seems very likely to contend.

At 7/1, he'd have made the staking plan, but at 6/1 he doesn't. Not quite. Those who are interested in backing him should look for prices on a wire-to-wire win, which should be in the region of 33/1, or consider using him as a pivot in dual-forecast markets. These wouldn't typically tempt me, but so likely is McIlroy to be thereabouts that boosting the odds on the pick of the alternatives really does make some appeal.

Fleetwood ready to go on the attack

To my mind those alternatives are TOMMY FLEETWOOD and BERND WIESBERGER, who above all else look solid each-way plays against the two world-class players at the head of the betting.

• CLICK HERE to back Fleetwood with Sky Bet

Fleetwood hasn't had the best of years by his own admission, largely because he's not been as reliable with driver in hand as had been the case previously. At Bay Hill in the spring he finished 10th while ranking 68th off the tee, giving winner Bryson DeChambeau fully 10 shots in that department and losing by seven.

When any player's main strength becomes a weakness alarm bells start to ring, but things have been looking up lately. Fleetwood drove it particularly well when seventh in the Dunhill Links, followed that up promisingly in two PGA Tour events, and was good again last week when finishing 13th in the AVIV Dubai Championship.

His iron play has also improved, these two departments generally linked where Fleetwood is concerned. His two best approach play performances of 2021 have come across his last three measured starts, and while there's no data for the ZOZO Championship, in securing his best PGA Tour finish of the year we can assume his long-game was good.

Suddenly there's a robustness to Fleetwood's form that had been absent, and with European Tour results of 2-12-7-13 since the last PGA Tour season ended, he's doing what he so often does and delivering on a consistent basis where we know he's comfortable.

Last week's effort in a shootout can be upgraded, because he's far better suited to a more penal course. He showed as much when winning the Abu Dhabi Championship twice, as well as in Paris and South Africa when 12-under did the job. We might be looking at four or five lower here, but it's a significant upgrade in terms of challenging players of this calibre, and that's a positive.

Fleetwood's record here is strong, having contended to some degree in each of the last four renewals. Back in 2017 he fired two 65s to enter Sunday in fourth, a year later he was eight-under at halfway to lie sixth, and in 2019 he spent the week inside the top five. Last year, a third-round 74 saw him fall from fifth to 18th before he rallied to take 10th.

With those two Abu Dhabi wins correlating nicely, he's definitely the right type to go on and win an event which has been dominated by the best players in Europe. The fact that this time he holds no chance of winning the Race to Dubai may work in his favour, and a frustrating year could well turn just as it did for Matt Fitzpatrick last December.

Bernd notice

In contrast, Wiesberger has played the best golf of his life this year, in my estimation. Certainly, from tee-to-green he's been world-class, leading the European Tour by a comfortable margin — the gap between Wiesberger and second-placed Thomas Pieters is significantly wider than any other two players in the rankings bar those at the bottom, Jake McLeod and Andrea Pavan.

• CLICK HERE to back Wiesberger with Sky Bet

This long-game quality, which also sees him lead in strokes-gained approach, powered Wiesberger to a second win in Denmark, and ought to have seen him double up in Switzerland. Despite that blow he went on to make the Ryder Cup side and was far from the weakest link as Europe suffered a mighty thrashing.

Undoubtedly spurred on by that experience, he's finished 12th, 11th and second in three subsequent starts, despite putting poorly throughout all of them. Yes, he might've been flattered a little last week, the leaders clearly stalling under pressure, but Wiesberger was again exceptional in all departments bar putting.

He'll have to improve with the flat stick to win this better event, but a general toughening of conditions will help. He has a round of 65 here to his name, on the way to fourth place in 2016, and is at the top of his game right now. That was not the case last year and, like Fleetwood, there's no Race to Dubai pressure. Wiesberger has every chance.

The last nine renewals of this event have been shared by four players, three of them major champions and the other, Fitzpatrick, prolific. This weakened renewal may open things up more, and maiden Laurie Canter held every chance coming down the stretch in 2020, but if anything the market probably underestimates those towards the top of it in general terms.

For that reason, Tyrrell Hatton was also tempting. A proven desert performer who has also won in Abu Dhabi, Hatton's form has been hit-and-miss but he played nicely in Houston last Friday after a poor start. He can win the Race to Dubai but this prolific winner is unlikely to be shackled by that and has gone close here previously.

Canter though is the last name of the list. I was hoping his Portugal Masters missed cut might see some 66 or even 80/1 thrown up, and most of his standout performances over the last 18 months have followed a poor one. One of the best drivers in the field and arguably the best maiden on the circuit, he can go well but looks about the right sort of price at 50/1.

Can Perez put the pieces together?

Instead, I'll side with the proven, winning form of VICTOR PEREZ, who has dropped two big hints across the last fortnight.

• CLICK HERE to back Perez with Sky Bet

Perez putted the lights out for eighth place in Portugal, then again closed with a round of 65 over on the Fire Course last week. Crucially, this time his long-game was the driving force as the Frenchman ranked first in driving accuracy, fourth in greens, 12th off the tee and 21st in approaches.

That's the game which for so long seemed likely to earn him a Ryder Cup debut and it's perhaps not a big surprise that, having been under such pressure for an extended period of time, he's now playing with greater freedom and getting back to where he ought to be.

Perez made just three bogeys in the AVIV Championship and this tougher test will absolutely suit, having been 20th and seventh here in two tries. Again, both of them were vital in terms of the Ryder Cup and perhaps that's why after shooting 67 to lead after the first round a year ago he struggled on Friday, before putting the pieces back in place over the weekend to finish seventh.

Perez has driven the ball really well on both starts, he's also contended for the Dubai Desert Classic and the Abu Dhabi Championship, and he's won a comparably lucrative tournament previously. If he can marry the ball-striking of last week with something like the putting we saw in Portugal, he can go really well.

It's no surprise to see Monday money for Nicolai Hojgaard, runner-up last time and rapidly on the ascent now. He's tempting given this wave of Danish winners, a point JB Hansen alluded to on Sunday, but his lack of desert experience is a slight worry and perhaps he needs another year before taking something of this stature.

Bob worth another chance

Thomas Detry earned a second glance purely because he's more than doubled in price after a solitary bad round last Friday, but despite having failed to get him right so far, I want to give ROBERT MACINTYRE another chance.

• CLICK HERE to back MacIntyre with Sky Bet

We were on MacIntyre in this last year, odds of 25/1 reflecting better form and a weaker field. He was one of several who entered Sunday in the mix after a brilliant third-round 66, only to plummet from a shot behind to finish 23rd with a shocking and expensive 77.

That disappointment aside, the Scot did confirm that the Fire Course is a really good fit. He'd suggested as much in his rookie season with rounds of 68 and 69 over the weekend which were enough to earn him Rookie of the Year honours. That he started poorly can be put down to the fact he was paired with rival Kurt Kitayama and admitted he couldn't focus on his own game.

Four excellent rounds here plus finishes of eighth and third in the Dubai Desert Classic suggest MacIntyre has the makings of a desert specialist, and after a hopeless weekend in Portugal, where he putted abysmally, it was encouraging to see him improve through the bag in the AVIV Championship.

There's work to be done with his approaches but ranking third off the tee represented a big step back in the right direction. It was driver which powered his excellent finish to 2020 plus the form he showed in the desert at the start of this year, and his performance last week was his best since that third place behind Paul Casey in January.

If his approach work slots into place, MacIntyre could go really well at a course he really likes, and at 66/1 that's a chance I'll take.

USA all the way

Around the same place in the market, Martin Kaymer showed good signs last week. He'd have been right up there with Fitzpatrick but for the ninth and 10th holes here last year, which he played in nine-over only to lose by eight, and is another with that correlating form over in Abu Dhabi on a course which asks similar questions.

But while it remains unclear if and when his first victory since the 2014 US Open will come, it's obvious that SEAN CROCKER is capable of winning just about anything if he has a decent week with the putter.

• CLICK HERE to back Crocker with Sky Bet

The American is an enormous talent whose ball-striking has powered five top-10 finishes this year, including when eighth last week. He ranked fifth off the tee and 10th with his approaches, but a shootout was always likely to leave him with too much to do as he again struggled on the greens.

That said, Crocker putted better than average on his previous two starts and has been much more solid of late, so we can cling to hope that he makes his share. Certainly, he has more wriggle room here, and the fact he finished 14th when statistically the worst putter in the field last December shows the damage he's capable of doing.

One year on, he's right up there with Wiesberger when it comes to strokes-gained ball-striking and his record here at Jumeriah Golf Estates reads a progressive 22-14-8. Breaking through in an event like this is difficult, but Crocker's long-game is good enough to take him far beyond the levels he's achieved so far and, in a small field, he looks worth the risk.

It's likely this tournament ends with an American flag at the top of the Race to Dubai. Perhaps Crocker can upstage Morikawa and Horschel in the event itself.

Posted at 1710 GMT on 15/11/21

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