Golf expert Ben Coley previews the BMW Championship, which finds a new home in Baltimore – one that could suit Bryson DeChambeau.
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship
2pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 25/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Bryson DeChambeau at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Paul Casey at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Keith Mitchell at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Aaron Wise at 175/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Hudson Swafford at 300/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
It's 60 years since Baltimore welcomed the PGA Tour to town, and patience has been tested further by the tropical storm which caused The Northern Trust to run into Monday. It'll be forgotten about come Thursday but is unfortunate for organisers who've been made to wait for the biggest names to arrive, and the fact that Caves Valley Golf Club is new to almost everyone means few in the field will have prepared in the way they'd have liked.
Perhaps Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson, two of the handful of stars who missed the cut last week, will be advantaged by not having to wait a day for the final round at Liberty National. Johnson has also played the course, though if pressed he may pretend not to remember. It was back in 2007, when America dominated the Palmer Cup and Johnson more than played his part, and really doesn't help to unravel a tricky puzzle.
The course is a 7,542-yard par 72 designed by Tom Fazio, who is also responsible for Quail Hollow, Shadow Creek, Conway Farms, the Seaside Course at Sea Island, and a few courses which have hosted PGA and Korn Ferry Tour events. His design signature isn't easy to see, but a virtual walk around at least offers some hope that Quail Hollow form in particular might be a worthwhile guide.
The wait is over.
— BMW Championship (@BMWchamps) August 24, 2021
Welcome to the 2021 #BMWCHAMPS. pic.twitter.com/om9sl7TlRV
Otherwise, we're in the dark, but I'm hopeful that Muirfield Village could also provide clues, partly because the course superintendent here used to be the course superintendent there, but really because they look somewhat similar. If anything, Caves Valley appears even more suited to bigger hitters, with no fewer than three par-fours potentially within reach, the par-fives all in the go-zone for the strongest and longest on the PGA Tour, and bunkers needing to be cleared elsewhere.
It could also pay to look at Congressional, which is here in Maryland and has the same lush, tree-lined, parkland aesthetic. The trouble is if you look there, to Quail Hollow and to Muirfield Village, you find a name I dare not write. Silliness aside, Rory McIlroy followed a big step forward at Southwind with a step back at Liberty National and though his driving was reasonable, his approach play wasn't, and he relied heavily on the putter.
This is one of those weeks where we have to accept a degree of guesswork is involved, but it's the same for both sides and I am pretty hopeful that power or at least top-class driving will be a significant advantage. Holes like the first and in particular the fifth, which bends dramatically to the right and dangles the possibility of cutting the corner, could tip the scales quite heavily in one direction.
Given that he's won at Muirfield Village, and has been fourth and ninth on his last two visits to Quail Hollow, BRYSON DECHAMBEAU appeals as the best bet at the prices.
One of the two longest hitters on the PGA Tour along with Cameron Champ, who is also worth a second glance, DeChambeau has done well when asked to get to grips with a new course, winning on his first look at Detroit and Winged Foot last year.
When reflecting on his US Open victory at the latter, he mentioned that for all his reputation for leaving no stone unturned, he actually arrived late and didn't do a great deal of preparation. There were no scouting missions, and instead he was interested in making sure his bag set-up was right for the conditions.
That ability to adjust quickly is a potential asset but it's his power which could be most significant. Back at the International Crown, an LPGA Tour team event played here in 2014, big-hitting Lexi Thompson said "it's definitely a longer course", while the 2017 Senior Players Championship went to Scott McCarron, who ranked second in driving distance for the week and was a seriously big-hitter in his pomp.
Low-scoring was on offer there, as it was in relative terms at the 2002 US Senior Open, and a bomb-and-gouge course is plainly the ideal for DeChambeau. As for his form, there was very little wrong with his long-game at Liberty National (third off the tee, 20th approach), a course which can be penal and probably isn't ideal for him, while before that he played in the final group at the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational where it was his short-game which let him down.
Stakes are kept relatively small owing to the uncertainties which are part and parcel of a nomadic event and I'll split them between DeChambeau and PATRICK CANTLAY, who succeeded his compatriot as champion at the Memorial Tournament and has won again there earlier this year.
Cantlay carded four rounds in the sixties at Liberty National to solidify his FedEx Cup position and has an excellent chance to head to East Lake as one of the few realistic contenders, which along with his continuing Ryder Cup mission will ensure focus. On the last point, Cantlay is in an undeniably strong position, but the USA can afford to leave out anyone like him should their form tail off at the wrong time and the next fortnight remains important.
Two years ago, he followed an almost identical path to the BMW Championship, winning at Muirfield Village and later playing well at Liberty National without threatening the lead, and then went and pushed Justin Thomas the distance at Medinah. He'd previously been ninth at the aforementioned Conway Farms and was 12th at Olympia Fields, so he's produced wherever this event has gone save for a quiet week in a shootout at Aronimink, and he the biggest victory of his career came on his first competitive try at Sherwood.
Cantlay, whose driver is a real strength, looks sharp as he bids to confirm his place alongside his close friend likely partner Xander Schauffele at Whistling Straits, having seen several other wildcard hopefuls stake a claim over the last couple of weeks.
If this does prove to be a test of driving, he can feed off Schauffele's success and grab himself another piece of silverware before playing an important role for Steve Stricker.
The #RyderCup is just weeks away and @PGATour star @patrick_cantlay discusses the pressure and excitement that comes for playing for the Red, White, and Bluehttps://t.co/syRNcutHB4 pic.twitter.com/nGXen5XJN0
— TikiAndTierney (@TikiAndTierney) August 18, 2021
It was clear when listening to PAUL CASEY last week that the Ryder Cup is already at the front of his mind and he's another whose thriving long-game should help him to adapt to this challenge.
With nine top-10 finishes in his 18 starts this year, Casey has been one of the most consistently world-class performers in the sport. Discussions around the best iron players rightly centre around Morikawa and Justin Thomas, but he's not far behind and looks sure to be a massive part of Padraig Harrington's plans.
His form at Quail Hollow is strong, with top-five finishes in each of his last two visits, and a long, parkland par 72 is always likely to suit this brilliant driver of the ball. He's also got bits and pieces to his name at Muirfield Village, leading at halfway there once, and this might be an ideal course for him.
What I am really drawn to though is the fact that he was down the field purely because of his short-game at Liberty National, where he seemingly relished a quiet final two rounds in the company of McIlroy. Casey hit the ball as well there as he has in all bar two of those top-10s so far this season and is worth marking up as a result.
Crucially, he's turned things around on the greens in a heartbeat many times over the last couple of years. He did so last September when nearly winning the PGA Championship having been 71st of 78 in putting at Southwind, and more recently went from a horror show at the Travelers to one of his best Open finishes and as recently as two starts ago was the best putter in the field.
His Valspar win in 2019 came after a missed cut at Sawgrass, where he lost almost five strokes on the greens in just two rounds, and just before that he'd putted well for third in Mexico having putted awfully but led the field from tee-to-green at Riviera.
Put another way, last week's display on and around the greens isn't much of a barometer when it comes to what's to come this week, and if he's anything like field average his long-game should take care of the rest.
AARON WISE is another with power at his fingertips but only last week did he really make it pay, putting in his best driving performance in an age on his way to a decent finish.
It's interesting to see that he's switched to a broom handle putter in a bid to rediscover his touch on the greens and while he struggled badly in round three, two good putting rounds in four is a decent enough platform. Before that he ranked 20th at the Wyndham and if he can find the improvement he's looking for, he can fulfil his potential.
Wise broke through at Trinity Forest in 2018, but a week earlier had been second at Quail Hollow, where he's since finished 18th and ninth. Later in the year he made a brilliant debut in the WGC at Firestone, a long, parkland course in Ohio, and he's since managed a top-10 finish at Muirfield Village.
Despite that win in Texas he may prefer this to be a little tougher than a shootout, especially if he does struggle again with the putter, but he's been pounding greens all year and is selected in the hope that these unfamiliar ones serve as something of a leveller. His best effort in 2021 came at PGA National, originally co-designed by Fazio, and he's a big talent worth chancing.
Tracking the entire way.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 23, 2021
Putting is overrated, @AaronWise_. pic.twitter.com/vo87Jm6NMk
Those who missed the cut in New Jersey may benefit in some small way but Johnson isn't at his best and more tempting would be Collin Morikawa, based not only on strike-rate but also the fact he's a winner at Muirfield Village already. That said he does lack a little firepower from the tee and is entitled to be close to empty given his exploits this year.
Emiliano Grillo, who gained strokes off the tee and with his approaches in both rounds, but missed the cut because of the putter, is a fine driver of the ball and also caught the eye. In the end, two short misses over the final three holes saw him depart early and therefore skip the extended final 36 holes.
Putting issues are nothing new of course, the Argentine long having struggled for consistency on the greens, but it was encouraging to see his long-game fire after a volatile run which has seen him miss four cuts in six but finish 12th in the Open Championship.
Ninth and 11th at Muirfield Village, he's also been ninth and 14th on his last two visits to Quail Hollow and while far from the longest, he's not likely to be beaten by his long-game. At 55th in the FedEx Cup he needs a massive week and perhaps that will free him up to make a few more than he has been on what's probably his favoured bentgrass surface.
Charl Schwartzel also has to merit a mention given all that I've written about potential course correlations, but will need to drive better than his last two starts and is omitted on account of some horrible numbers since the 3M Open.
The case for Schwartzel is built squarely on these courses and in particular those designed by Fazio. He's been eighth and 27th in his two visits to Conway Farms and ninth and 14th in his last two starts at Quail Hollow, one of which came earlier this year.
Also ninth at Congressional in the 2011 US Open won by McIlroy, and with two top-10s to his name at Muirfield Village, Schwartzel's name popped up on almost every leaderboard I looked at. If only he had driven the ball better than terribly over his last couple of starts.
By contrast, KEITH MITCHELL led in strokes-gained off the tee at both the 3M Open and the Wyndham, and then produced a really game performance to scrape through to this when eighth last week.
His win came at PGA National, and on all three visits to Quail Hollow he's been in the mix at some stage. Earlier this year he played in the final group having led through 54 holes and if form there does translate to this week, he has to be a player at a big price.
Mitchell has become known for his putting exploits on bermuda but he's translated it to bentgrass lately and arrives here both in form, and having achieved what he set out to at Liberty National.
Finally, HUDSON SWAFFORD stands out among the absolute rags given the way his long-game has fired over the last couple of weeks.
Strong driving has always powered his best form, which while up and down has yielded two PGA Tour wins, and he was the best in the field having barely missed a fairway and remained competitive from a length perspective last week.
Fourth and 11th for strokes-gained approach over his last two starts, the fact he's finished 37th and 11th reveals that he's putted poorly, but he's capable of better and one of those two wins came at a Fazio design in the Dominican Republic.
His best form has undeniably been at a lower level but he was just outside the places at The Northern Trust and in the mix at the Wyndham before that. Runner-up as recently as June and with a couple of marginal missed cuts since, odds of 300/1 are generous in a 69-man field and so many of the top players not quite firing right now.
Posted at 1700 BST on 24/08/21
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