Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the AVIV Dubai Championship

Golf betting tips: AVIV Dubai Championship

2pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 25/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

2pts e.w. Dean Burmester at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Joachim B. Hansen at 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Tom Lewis at 66/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Paul Waring at 400/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

If there's a golfer who can be relied upon to say something interesting and informative, it's Martin Kaymer. The erudite German, in his second language, is able to lull those of a certain disposition into a dreamlike state of envy and adoration simply by opening his mouth. He could talk for hours about some rubbish paraphernalia brought for valuation on Kunst und Krempel, and those present would know they'd spent their time well.

Ahead of last year's Golf in Dubai Championship, the first time the Fire Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates had been brought to our television screens, there was cheaper talk of rugged bunkering; of a links-like course which contrasts starkly with its more familiar and illustrious neighbour. We heard about how Greg Norman's design would really challenge those assembled for the penultimate event of an extraordinary season.

"The Fire plays more like a links course, so there are more options for playing the ground game and using the contours, especially when the conditions are firm and fast," said Norman (although for another tenner he'd probably have signed up to disparage his own work). "The course still requires a great deal of thought and execution to score well."

How much thought went into Andy Sullivan's opening 61, who can say. But thought certainly went into Kaymer's response, on the eve of the tournament, when asked to provide insight as to the challenge at hand. "It’s not the most difficult golf course which we’ll play, which is also a danger – you take it too easy and think it’s a birdie-fest. It’s very playable, the greens are lovely. It’s a great preparation for next week."

Understated, classy, and low-key prophetic: Antoine Rozner eventually caught and passed Sullivan, his 25-under total enough to win by a couple. Nineteen-under scraped into the top 10 and for an each-way payout you needed one better than that. The Fire was neither links-like nor the most difficult; it was vulnerable even to a field which featured just two members of the world's top 50. Ignore Greg, listen to Martin.

A year on, and there's greater strength at the very front of the market thanks to Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood, though neither would appear to be ideally suited by Fire. Yes, they're both fine desert golfers — they've four wins in Abu Dhabi between them, Casey having also triumphed in Bahrain and Dubai — but tougher conditions would accentuate the class edge they boast. When 25-under wins, nobody can really afford a quiet hour or two, to which everyone is vulnerable.

Not that this was a putting contest. Rozner in fact bossed matters from the tee and with his approaches, leading the field in strokes-gained ball-striking. Second in that category was Sullivan, who appeared set to win for so much of the week, and in the end gained less than a quarter of a stroke per day with the putter. Rozner's equivalent was over three-quarters, but still not the sort of lights-out display you'll often hear referenced as key to victory in events like this.

In fairness, the main takeaway ought to be that there was something for everyone. Matt Wallace drove it badly and still could've won; Mike Lorenzo Vera rode his putter as far as it would take him. If when Norman said Fire provides options he meant that anyone could win an event here, well on that he was telling the truth. One renewal is not a lot to go on, but wide fairways, big greens, warm conditions and a modern, desert design added up in precisely the way most would've expected. There's no reason it'll have changed much since.

Putting problems force change of plan

This is why I'm begrudgingly leaving out Romain Langasque, who was the best ball-striker in the field last week, is driving it as well as anyone on the European Tour, and is ready to contend when his putter behaves. The trouble is he's lost 10 strokes over his last eight rounds, and he won't win this unless he improves markedly.

It's possible he does so, and there's no lack of incentive for the Frenchman. Last year, he was forced to sit and suffer in his Dubai hotel room after a positive Covid-19 test first ruled him out of this event, then the DP World Tour Championship. When he ought to have been capping a breakthrough year in the season finale won by Matt Fitzpatrick, Langasque was instead left to rue his misfortune as a 14-day quarantine expired just after he'd been due to tee off.

At 114th in the Race to Dubai, he'll likely miss next week's final event again and all I can do is hope, selfishly, that he's left behind in his quest to qualify. Langasque three-putted from inside five feet more than once in Portugal, and I suspect he will need a little while longer to figure it out. Eyes down for Sun City, Leopard Creek, perhaps even both, should he venture to South Africa when the new season begins just a fortnight from now.

Something similar could be said about Sean Crocker, whose putting has been better lately. He's certainly up to matching Rozner's tee-to-green exploits, but the Zimbabwe-born American will surely need to and while I'm loathe to depend on putting, I've spent Monday talking myself out of these two quality drivers. They will need to do more than seems reasonable to expect.

With that at last established, I'm going to side with two of the class acts here who are capable of getting hot on the greens, with DEAN BURMESTER and MATT WALLACE nominated as the best bets.

• CLICK HERE to back Burmester with Sky Bet

Burmester won a shootout in the Canary Islands earlier this year and while we're asked to take close to half the price, that reflects the best season of his career. Burmester has since added four more top-10 finishes on the European Tour, including when seventh at the Dunhill Links, and last week dominated the South African PGA.

Now, he was favourite for that and it would've been disappointing had he failed to contend, but it was nevertheless a nice way to capitalise on a brilliant run which has seen this monster hitter finally establish himself among the better players on this circuit. It's also worth noting that George Coetzee did a Sunshine-European Tour double last year, as have Branden Grace and Darren Fichardt, so we shouldn't underestimate his 66-65 weekend parade.

Burmester skipped this event last year, having just managed to qualify for the season-ending DP World Tour Championship, where he's twice finished fourth in world-class company. Like Ross Fisher, it's very possible he finds equal comfort next door if not more so, given there's a greater emphasis on birdies here — he ranks second for the season among this field, inside the top 20 in eagles, and is an above-average putter.

Having also been third in the Dubai Desert Classic, this par 72 which is typical of the region should be exactly what he's looking for, and it's unlikely winning back home took a lot out of him. Big-hitting Burmester merits his position in the market and looks set to go well.

Wallace meanwhile can be forgiven last week's missed cut, having been sent off clear favourite at a course which might be a little less to his liking than this one.

• CLICK HERE to back Wallace with Sky Bet

Prior to that he was in the mix behind Hideki Matsuyama in the ZOZO Championship, where he had Fleetwood behind, while he was 14th in the Shriners where Casey missed the cut. Had he arrived directly on the back of those two excellent performances, he'd surely have been shorter in the betting.

One bad week in Portugal really doesn't worry me and there's plenty of encouragement to be taken from second place here behind Rozner, especially as he drove the ball terribly. More of a concern would be his putter this time, but he was good in the Shriners, as he has generally been when returning to Europe, and over the course of his career it's certainly been a strength.

Wallace has been runner-up at all three Dubai courses, seventh in Abu Dhabi and 19th in one try at Doha, so it's no wonder he took to this place. If he wants to qualify for the DP World Tour Championship he needs a massive week and it looks within his compass in a field which soon thins out beyond the three Ryder Cup players who headline it.

Thomas Detry is the other tempting candidate, as like Wallace and Burmester he's capable of lighting up the greens in a way we've not seen from several others here. Detry is sure to take inspiration from friend and compatriot Thomas Pieters' victory in Portugal, and his own form on the PGA Tour stacks up really well.

The same though is true of some of TOM LEWIS's performances earlier this year and at 66/1, this desert specialist is worth the benefit of the doubt.

• CLICK HERE to back Lewis with Sky Bet

Lewis has spent 2021 trying to keep his head above water on the PGA Tour but missed out on his card, first via the FedEx Cup and then through Korn Ferry Tour Finals. It means he'll only have the latter to aim at should he wish to play in the US next year, which reportedly he still intends to do.

Here in Europe, he's way down the Race to Dubai having only returned for the BMW PGA Championship, for which his preparation was poor. There was though a little more to like in his display at the Dunhill Links, where he played all four rounds and was among the better ball-strikers at St Andrews, and he could step up again here.

Lewis is certainly comfortable under these conditions and has been ever since he won a junior event in Abu Dhabi more than a decade ago. In an up-and-down professional career he's been third in the Dubai Desert Classic, sixth and seventh in the DP World Tour Championship, third in Saudi Arabia and ninth back in Abu Dhabi.

Rewind to December last year and he came home from the PGA Tour in seemingly poor form, and straight into a strong field for the DP World Tour Championship. It looked after an opening 78 that his run of horror shows would continue, only for Lewis to shoot 11-under over the final three rounds, a total bettered only by Viktor Hovland and Lee Westwood, and equal to winner Matt Fitzpatrick.

His form this year might also be better than it first appears, as he was the halfway leader in a good PGA Tour event this summer during a run of six cuts made in succession, while at the beginning of it he finished 14th behind Daniel Berger at Pebble Beach.

We've seen through Rafa Cabrera Bello, Danny Willett and Fitzpatrick, plus a near-miss in Italy from Fleetwood and victory in Dubai for Casey, that players returning from the PGA Tour should be considered dangerous. Lewis may be even more so for the fact he has absolutely nothing more to lose here, as only a win would avoid a drop in category for 2022 and a schedule which will be out of his control.

The fact that Lewis is so adept under these conditions means it's a good time to chance him, and I must confess to liking the fact he's good friends with Pieters, too. The pair finished eighth when teaming up in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans earlier this year and Lewis is definitely capable of finding a sudden jolt of improvement.

Danish duo worth chancing

At a similar price, JOACHIM B. HANSEN is a bit of a honey trap but does appear to have plenty in his favour.

• CLICK HERE to back Hansen with Sky Bet

The Dane has his irons firing, ranking 21st, eighth and third in strokes-gained approach in his last three starts, and 20 birdies for 17th place in Portugal was his best effort so far at that course.

He's surely better suited to Fire, where his around-the-greens weakness is less likely to be exposed, and a low-scoring event has always been what he wants. We saw as much this time last year when he hung tough to pip the uber-talented Wilco Nienaber in Johannesburg, after which he elected to skip this with his place in the field for the following week already secure.

This isn't a course which appears difficult to work out and with good form in Oman (second, sixth) and at Al Hamra (seventh), he has sufficient desert credentials despite not yet featuring in one of the better standard of events.

Hansen, buoyed no doubt by wins for Jeff Winther and Marcus Helligkilde, is in a similar spot to Wallace in the Race to Dubai rankings and can launch a last bid to qualify for the DP World Tour Championship, his approach play and putting ideal strengths.

After Lucas Bjerregaard's outpouring of emotion last week, there will be much said and written about those outside the top 120 or so in the Race to Dubai in what's the final event of the season for all bar those who qualify for the finale next door.

Keith Pelley's safety net, which guarantees no member will lose status altogether, is obviously significant, but try telling Bjerregaard he'd still have had a decent schedule to work with in 2022. As we see time and again, demonstrated by Jim Knous recently on the PGA Tour, full status means so much to these players, particularly those who've gone through the mill.

Bjerregaard's friend and compatriot THORBJORN OLESEN will be looking for something similar and he earns narrow preference to Alvaro Quiros, both of them selected on these pages recently and now back playing desert golf which has served them so well.

• CLICK HERE to back Olesen with Sky Bet

Quiros has won at the Earth Course and the Emirates, as well as Doha, and his iron play remained strong despite a messy missed cut in Portugal. The fact he's also a past champion there is a bit of a worry and while I've championed the idea he could produce the goods with his back against the wall, his putting will need to come good at the eleventh hour.

Olesen, on the other hand, we know is capable of lighting up the greens, which he did here when 13th last year. That was his standout performance in 2020, his highest finish since his 2019 arrest, and though a December trial looms, he's looked in decent form over his last two starts, driving it better in Portugal and hitting quality approaches in Spain before that.

A former runner-up in both Abu Dhabi and Qatar, he's also been third, fifth, seventh and eighth in the Dubai Desert Classic, and while more was hoped for last week, he's never finished as high in Portugal as he did here on debut. He could well take inspiration from Bjerregaard and is plainly a class act who looks a prime candidate to salvage his season at the death.

There are a few who appeal at massive odds, including a back-to-form Oliver Wilson who has solid Doha form and has been doing everything right lately. Stephen Gallacher, twice a winner in the Dubai Desert Classic, played nicely enough here last year and his irons have been really sharp, although it's two and a half years since his last top 10, for all it was a shock win in India.

The one I've landed on is the most audacious of the lot, and PAUL WARING will need to putt a lot better if he's to keep pace.

• CLICK HERE to back Waring with Sky Bet

However, he hit the ball as well last time out as he has since going off far shorter odds in far deeper fields at the start of 2020, when he was building on an excellent desert record which includes third in the Dubai Desert Classic, sixth in Abu Dhabi, and 14th in the DP World.

Although well down the field at Valderrama it was his third cut made in four starts, a run which includes the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, and his trademark strong driving has returned: he's ranked third and seventh during this sequence and has gained strokes in every start since April.

With his irons taking a notable leap forward, we're left with a wretched short-game which saw him lose six strokes around the greens in Spain. That's pretty remarkable, but it's worth noting he was above-average two starts earlier, and this is the one element which is hardest to pin down from one week to the next.

As for the putter, that's a bigger worry and will likely cost him. However, Waring closed with a round of 66 for 25th place last year, and there have been one or two signs that his work away from the course is paying off. Providing he's fit and healthy, taking obscene odds in the hope he finds something on the greens is an easy decision given how well he's played in these parts.

Posted at 2050 GMT on 08/11/21

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