Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for final round of American Express

By Martin Mathews

10:28 · TUE January 25, 2022

Golf betting tips: American Express final round

1pt e.w. Hudson Swafford to win the American Express at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Harry Higgs to win the American Express at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

I will readily admit that three events into the new PGA Tour calendar year I did not anticipate that I would be previewing an event where the unheralded duo of Paul Barjon and Lee Hodges would be sharing the 54-hole lead.

With all the players though now having played a round on each of the three courses in the rotation, that is exactly where we stand and the rookies will head into Sunday on an 18-under total and a one shot lead over the chasing pack.

Barjon and Hodges, who are close friends, have enjoyed each other's company this week and in the relaxed pro-am format fed off each other again on Saturday to post rounds of 64 and 65 respectively, on the supposedly tougher Stadium Course.

So, what of their chances today? Both are winners on the Korn Ferry Tour so we know they can get the job done and playing together again today having been paired for the first three days will surely help. They will also have the benefit of heading straight back out on the Stadium Course, where they both played so well yesterday.

First and second ranked off the tee yesterday, this is clearly not a ‘smoke and mirrors’ performance, but today they will go from having been relatively out of the spotlight for the first three days right into the glare of the camera, and with neither player having shown much on the tour so far this season, it is a huge ask for either of them to close this out.

In addition, if today's forecast is accurate, having got the best of the winds yesterday, they will have to contend with the stronger gusts later in the day.

The layers find it hard to split their chances as do I. However, neither one is for me today and I suspect this will go down for both as a learning curve experience.

Heading down the leaderboard, the third member of the final three-ball today who starts one shot behind on 17-under in lone third place is Tom Hoge.

A player who has been knocking on the door for a while now, a maiden tour victory for Hoge would not be a huge surprise. The 32-year-old produced some strong play in the fall events and, having knocked the rust off at the Sony last week, he has pushed on in this week in an event that he finished sixth in a couple of years ago.

Add this to his strong overall desert play in recent years and it is easy to make a solid case for him. However, in an event that sees no less than 17 players enter the final round within five shots of the lead, I am in no rush to back anyone at 6/1 or shorter this morning and this is enough to also put me off our selection from last Sunday - the hugely impressive Seamus Power, who starts two back and in contention once again.

Instead I will turn to the pair who will play alongside Power and who start three back on 15-under in fifth place HUDSON SWAFFORD and HARRY HIGGS, and take a double-pronged attack at juicier each-way odds, with both preferred to Harold Varner III, who starts on the same total but is a shorter price.

Looking at Swafford first and the 34-year-old, two-time winner on tour landed his first PGA Tour title in this event back in 2017. On that occasion Swafford started Sunday in third place and two off the lead so a very similar position to that which he finds himself in today. Having closed out the win by birdieing three of his final four holes to prevail by a shot, he will have plenty of positive memories to call on heading into today.

A winner also at the Corales Puntacana event in a similarly gutsy fashion, Swafford was dialled in with his irons yesterday, finishing with four birdies in his final five holes and as one of the stronger ball strikers on tour he will relish some breezy conditions again if they materialise. He looks a great each-way play to me around 20/1.

Click here to back Hudson Swafford with Sky Bet

A long-term resident of Texas, Harry Higgs is another player who relishes a bit of breeze and after his bogey-free 67 on the Stadium Course yesterday, he talked about how much he had enjoyed the challenge.

Known as one of the tour's characters, Higgs is certainly a ‘feast or famine’ type of player with plenty of missed cuts to his name, but there is no doubting that when he does get in the hunt he can hang tough, something he showed when finishing second to Stewart Cink at the Safeway last season, or indeed when posting a top-five finish at Kiawah Island in the PGA Championship.

I expect Higgs to produce a strong performance and, again at good each-way odds, I am happy to chance the one-time Korn Ferry winner to land his first PGA title.

Click here to back Harry Higgs with Sky Bet

Starting four back on 14-under, Patrick Cantlay is certainly tempting and there will be many who will look at the 61 he produced here on Sunday last year to nearly thwart Si Woo Kim and jump straight on board, while world number one Jon Rahm, who starts on 13-under, could also easily be a factor.

Of the further players within striking distance, the big hitting Cameron Young knows how to win and could spring a surprise, while the hugely talented Sahith Theegala makes more appeal to me at three times the odds of Will Zalatoris, who struggled yesterday to back up Friday's 61 and Francesco Molinari, who has played very little golf of late and has been working on some swing changes.

In all honesty, though, we have ourselves a good old fashioned ‘crap shoot’ today, and I will stick to taking our chances on Swafford and Higgs at very fair prices.

Published at 1020 GMT on 23/01/22

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