Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for AIG Women's Open

Golf betting tips: Women's British Open

1.5pt e.w. Yuka Saso at 33/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Georgia Hall at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Amy Yang at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Stacy Lewis at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There are high hopes this week that something of a wrong will be righted with the second championship visit of the AIG Women’s Open to Carnoustie. Why so? Well, the last decade was witness to a couple of errors of judgement in the set-up of the courses. Five years ago the tournament headed to Woburn, home club of Charley Hull, presenting her, it seemed, with a wonderful opportunity. It might have been just that, had the event not been held on her third favourite course at the club, utilising a yardage so short it had never occurred to her to practice it. Far from being the best prepared for that test, therefore, she was rather bizarrely the worst.

Five years before that, Carnoustie made its debut on the Women’s Open rota and once again the tee boxes were in the wrong place. The final hole, as we all know, is a brute, with the Barry Burn threatening both the drive and the approach. Those too fearful of the water risk dragging the ball into rough on the left (or, worse, out of bounds), taking the green out of the equation for the second shot.

It’s unquestionably one of the toughest examinations in world golf and yet the field didn’t face it. The tee was moved up, the drive became straightforward, and the burn was more or less irrelevant for both the first and second bunt.

It was a little like plotting a route for the Tour de France that ignored both the Alps and the Pyrenees, instead just faffing about on the flat. To no-one’s surprise, professional golfers, being masochists at heart, didn’t think much of a neutered Carnoustie. The eventual winner Yani Tseng bemoaned that "all the bunkers and the burns are out of play". Even the head greenkeeper admitted it was a "watered-down version" of Carnoustie. The good news is that the R&A, who’ve since assumed control of the championship, won’t want a repeat so we can expect the real deal this week. It should be a fine test of linksland savvy and golfing resilience.

Mention of Tseng is rather melancholic. The Taiwanese player was dominant in the game back then, winning four majors in just eight starts in 2010 and 2011. Yet she’s won nothing since 2012, has made only one cut since this event three years ago, and has a stroke average of 78.44 from eight appearances this season. A cold reminder of just what a callous business golf can be.

What of the market this week? You can't argue with Nelly Korda being favourite off the back of three wins in her last four individual starts, but a trio of links efforts have her still seeking a first top-10. Lydia Ko is not without links form – third at Turnberry, second last week – but her last major win was at the start of 2016. Eighteen-year-old Atthaya Thitikul is an astounding talent who hasn’t finished outside the top five in her four LPGA starts this season and tops the LET rankings, but her short putting makes me wary. All can win this week, but I’ll pass on the opportunity to back them at the prices.

Tipping YUKA SASO didn’t go well at the Olympics after she got off to a slow start. But, by the end of the week, she’d made the top 10 and once again proved that she’s very much at home at the top level. In fact, she’s made eight LPGA starts in the last nine months, only one of them wasn’t 21st or better and in every single one she featured in the top 10 at some point during the week.

The obvious highlight among those efforts was the victory in the US Open, but her links debut in last week’s Women’s Scottish Open was quite handy. She opened with a 67 (tied second) and closed with a 68 for T15th, cheerily heeding lessons along the way.

Three years ago Georgia Hall chatted to Tom Lehman ahead of winning at Royal Lytham and Saso has taken a similar route, gassing with Justin Leonard (not just the winner at Troon, but also for the often-forgotten third man in the 1999 Carnoustie play-off). "I’m learning something every day," she said at Dunbarnie Links. "It’s very different from what I'm used to. I’ve talked to Justin and I played with Stacy (Lewis) in a practice round. They gave me good advice."

• CLICK HERE to back Saso with Sky Bet

We’ll double up by adding the sorcerer as well as the apprentice because I just can’t ignore STACY LEWIS on the links at this week’s price. She missed the cut in her Women’s Open debut and did so again 12 months ago. Both, however, are forgivable – the first because she was a novice, the most recent because she was a little distracted having won the Scottish Open the week before.

Take more note of what happened in-between which proved she’s reliably superb by the sea. She’s finished T31st and T12th at Royal Birkdale, tied eighth at Royal Liverpool, T17th at Turnberry, tied seventh at Kingsbarns and was the winner on the Old Course in 2013. She was also T11th at Carnoustie 10 years ago.

Prior to crossing the Atlantic she showed nice form, logging T12th and tied ninth, and it is only 12 months since she won that Scottish Open. True, she was only T67th on defence, but that doesn’t over-concern me. This week will be a tighter test from the tee and should be a more intense battle to beat par.

That won’t fuss Lewis, who said last week, of playing in Scotland: "You have to be tough here. You're going to play in the elements at some point and you have to love it. A lot of people are taken out of the tournament because they don't love playing in the rain and wind, but it suits my personality and I love the creative side of links golf too." I really can’t see how she’s available above 66/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Lewis with Sky Bet

Korea’s AMY YANG got off to a sluggish start last week, but by the end of Sunday she’d ticked off a ninth top-25 finish of the year – and ahead of that effort she’d finished top 10 in two majors (the PGA and Evian Championships), tied fifth in the Marathon Classic and also tied sixth in a pairs event.

Her weekend scores of 69-68 at Dunbarnie were a reminder of what a fine links performer she is. In the past she’s been tied fifth at Gullane in the Scottish Open, tied fifth at Royal Birkdale in this event, tied fourth at Machynys Peninsula (a modern links layout), and lost a play-off at Royal St David’s in Harlech. She was also tied fourth at Carnoustie 11 years ago and has a live chance to repeat that.

• CLICK HERE to back Yang with Sky Bet

Closer to home, Hull’s had her difficulties on the linksland, but impressed when landing solo fifth last week and has been priced accordingly. I think she’s a little short given those long-term difficulties by the sea, a tournament best of T12th, and the fact that this will be her 11th week of golf in 13. She also ignored her SatNav on Sunday night. The direct route between Dunbarnie and Carnoustie should take about an hour; Hull instead opted to travel via her home near Kettering which is the best part of an 850-mile round-trip.

Ireland’s Leona Maguire arrives off the back of seven straight top-25 finishes, six of them top-15, but I’m really not quite sure why both she and Hull are shorter than GEORGIA HALL, who is both a confirmed linksland specialist and far from out of form. The 25-year-old has actually recorded a career-best finish in three of the year’s first four majors, although the tied sixth in the most recent, the Evian Championship, was the best.

Either side of that effort she added five top-25 finishes before finishing T40th last week in Fife when I suspect, like Lewis, the width from the tee didn’t quite suit her (or granted others a touch of freedom). She loves this tournament and adores links golf. "It’s the way golf should be played," she said last week. "Fast-running ground, windy conditions, seeing shots, being creative. It’s my comfort zone."

She’s proved that beyond the win at Lytham. She was tied third at Kingsbarns, top amateur on the Old Course, and briefly featured on the leaderboard as an amateur at Royal Birkdale. She’s excited about Carnoustie, might well be a great fit for it, and is certainly a touch of value.

• CLICK HERE to back Hall with Sky Bet

Posted at 1030 BST on 17/08/21

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