Golf betting tips: Open Championship round four preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Open three-balls

2pts Max Homa and Billy Horschel to win their two-balls at 3/1 (General)

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The Open Championship is living up to its name after the kind of Saturday that provides the range of possibilities and emotions that make this sport what it is.

For halfway leader Shane Lowry, who at one stage threatened to go and do what he did at Portrush five years ago, a back-nine 40 left him seething. His complaints about the set-up of the course were not totally invalid, but more than anyone he ought to know what the deal is here. Perhaps the R&A could've put the tees forward on 15 and 17, but they didn't and that really is that.

Alongside him, Dan Brown was posing for selfies when coming down the 18th, where his double-bogey cost him a place in the final group. It's been a dream week for the Englishman but few will believe he can rebound from that blow and at 22/1, his odds barely shortened from one round to the next. The big change among these two is that Lowry, three back, is now alongside him in the betting.

Billy Horschel smiled his way to the front and would be a popular winner at a course where Americans have, for one reason or another, dominated. Horschel is three from five with the lead but two of those were a decade ago. He fits some trends, as a winner this year with a major top-10 finish to his name, and it's tempting to draw parallels with playing partner Justin Rose's US Open win when he talks about how he's gone to bed each night imagining himself with the Claret Jug. Rose had embraced the magnitude of moment, rather than seeking to downplay it.

The presence of Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler means Horschel is not only not the favourite, but not the most likely US winner. Schauffele for my money is the man to beat from one behind while Scheffler's stunning birdie at the 17th kept him within two. It's worth noting that whatever the draw bias of the first two rounds and the weather of the third, the set-up and everything else, two of the top three in the betting are still there with one round to play.

Then there are those who took advantage of an earlier tee-time to make significant moves: Thriston Lawrence, Sam Burns, and Russell Henley. Lawrence and Burns share one thing in common – both have won relatively regularly at tour level – whereas Henley is one of the most underrated players in golf, largely because he's found winning more difficult with three titles in more than 10 years. Such details didn't stop Brian Harman a year ago and he's one of several who underline once again that as far as PGA Tour form goes, you won't find many better guides than the Honda Classic.

Those are the under-par players and it's 50/1 bar, perhaps to some degree a reflection of a better weather forecast – if better is the correct word there. If anything, conditions today might just improve as the afternoon goes on and if that's the case, we don't need to look any further to find the Champion Golfer of the Year. My verdict would be Schauffele over Rose at the prices, with Scheffler, Horschel, Burns and Henley the chief dangers on what should be a fabulous day of Open golf.

The best two-ball bet has to be the leader, BILLY HORSCHEL, who is as big as even-money in a place to beat Lawrence.

Horschel is a more experienced, more decorated, more capable golfer, and while Lawrence was excellent on Saturday, the reason he was able to get this close to Horschel is that he played under far kinder conditions.

Lawrence won the Lytham Trophy a decade ago so has some handy links form in the bank, but I've not been as convinced as some by his impressive haul of four DP World Tour titles. All of them involved help from some outside factor and he fell over the line in the SA Open in particular.

He's a fine player even so but he's not all that close to Horschel and the American looks more like a 4/6 chance.

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Earlier, MAX HOMA looks a decent price at evens and bigger to beat Jason Day.

Homa was thrilled to make the cut after a real grind, which is what it's been like for him of late, and he produced his best round of the week on Saturday despite bogeys at the final two holes.

I doubt that'll have bothered him too much and Day came home in 40 himself. The Aussie produced his standout Open finish last year and has a solid record in the event, but now that Homa appears to have solved something off the tee, he ought to be favourite.

Posted at 0845 BST on 21/07/24

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