Matt Cooper has a couple of recommended bets ahead of the final round of the Mexico Open, with Stephan Jaeger looking perfectly poised.
Golf betting tips: Mexico Open by VidantaWorld final round
2pts win Stephan Jaeger at 4/1 (General)
2pts Harry Hall to win his three-ball a 21/10 (bet365, Ladbrokes)
Back in June 2022, Aldrich Potgieter headed overseas with a team of South African youngsters to play the leading amateur events in the UK. He was 17 years old, had never encountered the bouncy turf and capricious wind of the linksland, and he failed to make the cut in his first starts at the St Andrews Links Trophy. Two factors suggested that the result was a little illusory, however.
The first was that those overseeing the trip would whisper as they walked the dunes that Potgieter was not only the best of that year’s crop but that he had a wise golfing head on young shoulders. The second was that Sunshine Tour veteran Roger Wessels took time to teach him a few links tricks and he embraced them to the extent that he more or less ignored his biggest weapon (the driver) at Royal Lytham & St Annes in the Amateur Championship and instead found fairway after fairway with his 2-iron. When he lifted the trophy at the end of that week he became the second youngest winner (after 16-year-old Matteo Manassero) and indicated that he was a talent worth keeping an eye on.
This Sunday he heads into the final round of the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld with a one-shot lead as he looks to land a first PGA Tour title. He’s carded rounds of 65-61-67 to hit 20-under 193 through 54 holes. That leaves him one clear of Brian Campbell and three ahead of Ben Coley’s pre-tournament selection Stephan Jaeger. Of the rest, Alex Smalley (another of Ben’s picks) is currently 15-under with Aaron Rai and Ben Griffin on 14-under.
The leader was always a neat fit for this week. Ben wrote in his preview that “bigger hitters hold the aces” and that Torrey Pines “could be a good place to hunt for clues”.
Potgieter currently ranks second on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and his distance (he ranks first) fuels that position. He also finished T15 at Torrey Pines last month. But there was more. He’s proved he can go low, thrashing a 59 on the Korn Ferry Tour last February shortly after he won on a course in the Bahamas that is similar to VidantaWorld. His tee shot strategy is again to the fore but this time he is using the big weapon rather than the 2-iron stiletto.
Many will regret not being on from the start-of-the-week 80/1 but the general 11/10 now available is less persuasive. True, he has only two close challengers, but that win in the Bahamas was from five shots back after three rounds. The 59 a few weeks later helped him grab the halfway lead but he drifted back to T20. Later in the year he was top five with 18 holes to play three times and went backwards.
Then he led by three at 54 holes in the Alfred Dunhill Championship and added a 75 to finish second. Last month he was third at this stage at Torrey Pines before closing with a 78. If he’s as good as those South African elders believe he’ll have learned lessons during those two experiences and use them this Sunday (or another Sunday soon). But 11/10 is a short price to back him now.
Campbell is in new territory and best price 13/5. He’s back on the PGA Tour for the first time since 2017 and has just one career top 20 there (T12 in the John Deere Classic). He’s been second or third five times on the KFT at 54 holes and never won. Intriguingly he is a past room-mate of last year’s winner Jake Knapp but Campbell revealed he passed on only the most gleefully bland advice: “I asked him where to stay on-site, where the most comfortable would be, he said the place I am staying is just fine.”
STEPHAN JAEGER, on the other hand, reminds me of the case of Austin Eckroat late last year. The latter won on a wide course in Mexico. He’d been tipped by Ben in the preview. He was also in the hunt at this stage and, while it’s not ideal to tip one of Ben’s picks in this final round preview, the crucial final similarity is that Jaeger – like Eckroat then – seems a touch over-priced at 4/1.
This is his fourth visit to the course. He carded a third round 64 when T15 on debut, opened with a 65 on his way to T18 in 2023, and closed with a 65 last year for third. He hasn’t done so well at Torrey Pines this year but he was third there last year when the 36- and 54-hole leader. That result was a vindication of his work to increase clubhead speed and boost his distance from the tee.
He learned a lesson that week and soon recorded a fine first PGA Tour win, going successfully head-to-head with Scottie Scheffler in the Houston Open. He’s come close to landing another victory when second in the Black Desert Championship late last year and second again in the Sony Open. A six-time winner on the KFT, one was from three back, another from four. This is a terrific opportunity for him and the fact they’re playing in three balls is the clincher.
Take outsider Hall to see off Kim and Bhatia
Rather than a one point poke at a double we’ll add a two point single in the three-balls on HARRY HALL.
One of his opponents is the in-form Michael Kim (five top 15s in nine starts including second in Phoenix) but he’s never recorded a top 20 in Mexico.
The other is Akshay Bhatia and he does like a course such as this, winning on a similar one in the Bahamas and he was fourth at VidantaWorld in 2023. But Hall is no fool with 11 top 25 finishes in his last 16 starts including a win.
He’s closed both his visits to this course with a 65, recorded a Sunday 66 in Mexico last November and this trio should be closer together in price.
Posted at 1040 GMT on 23/02/25
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