Ben Coley will be up early for the final round of the Mauritius Open, where Eddie Pepperell should draw a crowd. Get Ben's verdict.
Golf betting tips: Mauritius Open
1pt e.w. Clement Sordet at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. Christiaan Burke at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt Pepperell and Schmidt to win 3-balls at 15/2 (Paddy Power)
The final round of the final DP World Tour event of the year will kick off earlier than planned, with Sky Sports beginning their broadcast at 6am, which is when the final group should be teeing off at the second hole.
Such a schedule change would ordinarily mean it's you, me and close family members of the contenders who are watching, but the presence of Eddie Pepperell is sure to draw an audience. Pepperell, co-host of The Chipping Forecast, is one of the most popular players on the circuit – except, he's not properly on the circuit having lost his playing rights at Qualifying School.
Playing here on an invite, one week on from rounds of 81-69 at Leopard Creek, Pepperell has a golden opportunity to win back his playing status and ensure that he doesn't have to rely on favours and his lowly category in 2025. It would be an extraordinary achievement were he to pull it off, one of the stories of the year reserved for the final Sunday before Christmas.
With his wife Jen on the bag, I won't be alone in hoping Pepperell gets it done and of the two tied for the lead, he makes by far the most appeal even as favourite. Pepperell is a two-time DP World Tour winner, both from the front, both under windy conditions, and every facet of his game has looked good throughout the week, a point underlined by the fact he's made a joint-best four bogeys so far.
Dylan Naidoo, five years a pro and with one Sunshine Tour title to his name, has also made only four, their ability to keep out of trouble so far key. This course has five par-fives, two very short par-fours and looks on the face of it to be at the mercy of the sluggers. Typically though they find one or two too many trouble spots, which is exactly what happened to powerhouse Christo Lamprecht during round three.
With more wind in the forecast ahead of the final round, avoiding big numbers around a fabulous little course will be vital and I'd much rather rely on Pepperell's experience. Naidoo can change his life with a win and it's a massive occasion for a golfer who has never yet managed to establish himself as one of the top players in South Africa, but could be a DP World Tour member come the evening.
Jacob Skov Olesen adds another fascinating dimension in third place, particularly during a week which saw fellow standout Danish talent, Frederik Kjettrup choose LIV Golf over the Korn Ferry Tour. Olesen has gone the more traditional route, turning pro before coming through Q-School, and it's going to be interesting to see how their respective careers develop.
This youngster won the Amateur Championship earlier in the year so had already hinted that these conditions would help rather than hinder and, at 4/1, he's not without appeal. No doubt fortunate to pick up birdies at the 13th (bounced out of a hazard) and 18th (hit the pin at pace), the left-hander might be wondering whether it's his week, although he'll soon learn that's not how things work.
We've Jayden Schaper back in the running after a good move on Saturday and he's correctly priced as best of the rest, but the combination of even stronger winds and what's at stake in that final group suggest to me that we could see something extraordinary. I'd give all 20 players at five-under and better some kind of chance, knowing, as we saw during round three, that there are low scores out there even in the wind.
My vote at this stage goes to CLEMENT SORDET at 40/1, about five-times Schaper's price despite their being just a shot between them. As I wrote pre-tournament, French players often come to the fore here in Mauritius and while that's not been the case this year, Sordet has played some of the best golf in the field since opening with a 74.
Sordet is a five-time Challenge Tour winner, one of which came in Africa, and his college experience in Texas helped craft him into a good wind player. And while over 72 holes this does seem a course for the more pragmatic golfers, with just 18 to play I don't mind chancing a strong driver following his best-of-the-day 65 to vault into contention.
I'm sure if he stumbles we'll hear about how hard it can be to back up a score like that but I've never really bought into that argument and having attracted some support pre-tournament, 40/1 in this scenario looks generous. With three places to go at and five of the six players ahead of him yet to win at this level, he looks among the most dangerous players on the leaderboard.
Fourth-placed Jovan Rebula has really started to flourish, hopefully on course to leave the shadow of his uncle, Ernie Els. Another former winner of the Amateur Championship, he's proven in the wind but doesn't have winning experience and that has to be a bit of a negative on a blustery, difficult day.
CHRISTIAAN BURKE gained notoriety for shooting a 16-under 56 as an amateur and has started to pop up on Sunshine Tour leaderboards now so watch for him at 60/1, while Lamprecht and Wilco Nienaber have both shown enough to believe they could yet end the week with silverware. As things stand both look set to pay the price for running up big numbers and from six and five behind respectively, no more of them are allowed.
Burke at 60/1 is the other to strongly consider and having looked twice at him pre-tournament, I can't resist a small bet at 50/1 and upwards. He's definitely got talent and seven top-30s since August show a player who is finding his feet. As with Olesen and a few others this could well be a year or two too soon, but at the prices we don't have to invest much to find out.
We'll also add a three-ball double, starting with the aforementioned Pepperell. Given his class and experience, I see no case for him being anything but favourite and am surprised he's even a hair bigger than Olesen at the time of writing.
Some will look to John Parry as the banker and he's certainly not opposed lightly, but 4/5 on a day like the one forecast looks far too short and I'll take BEN SCHMIDT against him. This promising youngster has really started to blossom over the past six months, reaching the Challenge Tour Grand Final before earning his card at Q-School, and he's closer to Parry than the prices suggest.
The double pays about 7/1.
Posted at 1450 GMT on 21/12/24
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