Could the Valero Texas Open throw up a shock winner who landed lucky with their tee-times over the first two days? Ben Coley believes so and has in-play selections.
Golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open
1pt e.w. Henrik Norlander at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win JJ Spaun 1pt win Aaron Rai both at 33/1 (General)
Those who played their first rounds on Thursday afternoon in Texas were faced with tougher conditions, but by the end of Friday's second round they might well be on the side of a decent draw bias. Unfortunately, given that our remaining five selections all played in the morning wave, the strong winds forecast for this afternoon remain, and TPC San Antonio will be really difficult.
Russell Knox, Rasmus Hojgaard and others including 80/1 Brendan Steele have all built platforms which ensure they'll begin the round knowing that if they can survive it, they'll be in the mix for the weekend. They made the most of conditions which were in excess of half a stroke easier and have one more job to do if they're to be fighting for that final Masters invite come the beginning of round three.
But those who defied Thursday afternoon's modest winds are the ones who've really broken the back of the tournament, and justify getting involved again at this early stage. In particular, players who got their rounds under way right at the start of the second wave escaped the worst of the afternoon winds and they really might have landed the golden ticket this week, because they now get to tee off first on Friday.
HENRIK NORLANDER is among a quartet who started off in the first three groups on either tee yesterday afternoon and went on to play well, and at 100/1 with five places on offer, the Swede rates the best value.
Here we have a player who has come close to winning at this level multiple times, and who has won on the Korn Ferry Tour. The reason for dismissive odds is a run of missed cuts coming in, but his trademark ball-striking has been strong enough and was indeed very good for two rounds of the Valspar before arriving here.
That continued on Thursday, ranking 19th in strokes-gained off-the-tee and ninth in strokes-gained approach, and putting a hair better than field average on his way to a four-under 68. It was a very strong round, his sole bogey coming when he took a club too many with his second to the fifth hole and couldn't save par from six feet.
It's been a poor start to the year for Norlander and nobody could be sure he'll kick on today, but he's fourth among the late starters and 100/1 looks much too big. He's certainly capable and if he can break 70 this morning, under conditions which look set to be calm, then he'll be right in the thick of things entering the weekend.
Further down the leaderboard, the eye is drawn to Richard Bland and Davis Riley on two-under. Both defied those difficult conditions and poor putting to stay in touch and remain around the odds they were pre-tournament. Riley in particular has to be considered, as a winner here on the Korn Ferry Tour who has runner-up in the Valspar Championship two weeks ago and is capable of going one better.
Course specialist Aaron Baddeley is available at 150/1 despite a three-under 69, but it does remain difficult to imagine his wayward driving escaping punishment here, and there wasn't enough in the display of three-time PGA Tour winner Jim Herman to merit support at shorter odds from that small group who are tied for 18th, including last week's nearly-man, Ben Martin.
But returning to the top of the leaderboard, Denny McCarthy, AARON RAI and JJ SPAUN are all among the first players to tee off in round two, and with wind forecast to arrive around lunchtime, they might just get done before things get very tricky.
Spaun does finish his round on the front-nine so there's a slight worry he'll face the fearsome ninth in strong winds, but hopefully he'll have moved into the lead by then. He certainly hit the ball beautifully in round one, making nothing outside of 12 feet (albeit holing a wedge for a nice bonus eagle) and he's a player we've seen plenty from this year.
Spaun has correlating form in the Las Vegas desert where he's based as well as in Phoenix, plus at another Greg Norman design in Mexico. And above all else, returning us to the reason for this preview, he might just continue to capitalise on an ideal tee-time.
Backing him each-way is obviously an option but I'm going to split win-only stakes with Rai, a two-time DP World Tour winner who contended at the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this season, and should've won on the Korn Ferry Tour last September.
Rai showed he can play in the wind when landing a foul Scottish Open, where he in fact defied a big draw bias. This time the cards have fallen in his favour and, like Spaun, his name wouldn't appear out of place on a roll-of-honour packed with quality ball-strikers.
These two are twice the odds of McCarthy, who is admittedly one of the better maidens on the circuit and similarly advantaged by the way things have panned out. However, with so many of the better players having plenty to do already, this tournament has the look of a boil over. It may well be that come Sunday and a shock winner, we're left to conclude that events of the first two days were the biggest clue.
Posted at 0725 BST on 01/04/22
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