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Golf betting tips: In-play advice ahead of final round of Puerto Rico Open
Ben Coley is keen to take on 54-hole leader Ryan Brehm ahead of the final round of the Puerto Rico Open.
Golf betting tips: Puerto Rico Open
1.5pts win Chad Ramey at 9/1 (General)
1.5pts win Michael Kim at 9/1 (General)
Ryan Brehm arrived at the Puerto Rico Open needing a top-two finish to fulfil the terms of a minor medical extension, and it's been a brilliant display through the first 54 holes of the tournament to make that distant dream a real possibility now.
Brehm holds a three-shot lead over Michael Kim, with four back to the remainder, building on some encouraging past experiences at the course. Now, with 18 holes remaining, anything under-par will surely guarantee his future, and may well be enough to do so via the first PGA Tour victory of his career.
One of the longest drivers in the game, Brehm has married that power with a sensational scrambling display, getting up and down for par 14 times from 15 missed greens so far. We saw these newly-found short-game skills in action with a birdie at the last, too, as Brehm hacked out from the trees and rolled in the putt having been inches away from disaster.
Clearly, with one bogey to his name and the power to attack the two par-fives which come quickly at holes two and five, Brehm could extend his lead early and create enough of a cushion to justify odds-on prices. But, despite the calming influence of his wife on the bag, he is extremely errant at times, and it may not require more than one or two bad swings at the wrong time to catch him out.
Throw in the fact that wind and rain are all but guaranteed, tee-times having been brought forward slightly as a result (leaders off at 1631 GMT), and he looks one you just have to take on. If the world number 773 does go on and bag his first PGA Tour win from the front, defying foul conditions and immense pressure, so be it.
We've got Brandon Wu running for us at 80/1 and though five back, he's only two off second, has bags of potential, and it looks like his iron play has turned a corner. Last Friday at the Honda his approach work was brilliant and though we've no strokes-gained data here, nobody has hit more greens than the former amateur standout so far.
Granted another strong start he can be fancied for a place but I want a couple who are closer to the lead, with CHAD RAMEY and MICHAEL KIM worth dutching at 4/1 combined (both are quoted at 9/1).
Ramey was among the most impressive Korn Ferry Tour graduates at the beginning of the season, his consistency built on a strong long-game, and while less effective lately, he was right in the mix when dropping down a level two starts back to hint that calmer waters may bring about an improvement.
First so far in driving accuracy, he's back playing the sort of golf which led him to victory in Maine last year and that came under real pressure, as he carded a bogey-free final round having held the 54-hole lead. He's probably got more scope than most of these and looks among the chief threats.
Kim meanwhile has a PGA Tour victory to his name, which counts for plenty, and is more appealing than Tommy Gainey. Kim was in fact selected for this event on these pages at 275/1 last year so there'd be some frustration were he to go on and win this time having been a similar price earlier in the week, but that shouldn't cloud judgement and it may pay to remember his pedigree.
Yes, it's been a lean couple of years since that runaway win in the John Deere Classic but he's been showing flashes of really good ball-striking for a while now, and when he can keep his driver in play has all the other tools required to be winning in this kind of company.
It's been a case of so far so good in that department and while yes there's a risk his technique is exposed under the gun, he gets to play stalker here and knows he's the one who has been there and done it before. I felt both he and Ramey were a couple of points bigger than they ought to be with odds-on prices about the leader underestimating the scale of the task today.
Posted at 0830 GMT on 06/03/22
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