Johannes Veerman to beat Matt Jordan and Joe Dean
This is a strong three-ball on paper, each member having enjoyed a memorable 2024. For Dean, making it all the way to the DP World Tour Championship having come through Q-School last year was a fine achievement. Jordan played beautifully in the Open once again. Veerman, meanwhile, has come alive lately, ending last season with five top-30s in a row.
And it's Veerman who looks the bet, because Dean's form has tailed off towards the end of a long campaign and Jordan's record here isn't great. His approach play has dipped again lately and that would have to be a worry as it's key around Sun City, where finding the right part of small, clover-leaf greens is arguably the biggest challenge.
Veerman looks to hold the edge in that department and prior to Dubai last time, he'd produced four top-10 greens-in-regulation performances in a row, his strokes-gained numbers also strong. He's produced this late-year burst without warming up the putter as yet and this powerful American, perhaps inspired by Ryggs Johnston's win in Australia, can better a missed cut here back in 2020.
Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Mackenzie Hughes and Danny Willett
I did toy with Willett here as he's a former champion at Sun City, and his second round at the Shriners, where he suffered from a bad draw, was promising. That being said it's 18 months since he played to the sort of level the other two in this group have reached consistently of late, and you'd have to worry about his ball-striking ahead of what's sure to be a good test.
The reason for looking at him was that I want to oppose Hughes, whose driver tends to be a weakness, and whose red-hot form figures might be misleading. He's a past winner of the RSM Classic and the Sanderson Farms, so it might just be that the schedule on the PGA Tour plays into his hands around this time of year and now out of his comfort zone, he could struggle. He's relied on his putter, too.
Ultimately that really makes Olesen look a bet at odds-against. In good form and third here last year, the Dane has no real weaknesses at the moment, not now he's even started to drive the ball to a consistently high level. Only a rare off week with the putter kept him down the leaderboard in Dubai but that shouldn't last.
Speaking of good putters gone bad, I did consider Alex Bjork in his three-ball. The Swede is back from another short break and pitched in with Francesco Laporta and Dale Whitnell. He's the best of the trio by a good margin when firing and it may be that he can do so again now returning from the PGA Tour, with Whitnell's form suggesting he won't be much of a threat.
Laporta is playing well but while he has plenty of experience in South Africa, not much of it is positive. I'm not sure he merits favouritism over a better golfer, but he is an undeniably strong ball-striker who arrives with confidence high and, on balance, I can't justify taking a chance on Bjork against him.
Posted at 1625 GMT on 03/12/24
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