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Golf betting tips: First-round leader preview and best bets for The PLAYERS Championship
Sam Burns is one of four first-round leader selections for The PLAYERS, where an early tee-time often proves a distinct advantage.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS first-round leader
1pt e.w. Sam Burns at 55/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Russell Henley at 60/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Alex Noren at 90/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The first-round leader market is golf's version of greyhound racing and must be entered with eyes wide open, or not at all. This is extremely volatile, there is guesswork involved, and any degree of confidence is misplaced.
With that out of the way, a look at the history of this championship does help us to narrow things down because teeing off in the morning has been a definite advantage. Chad Ramey was the surprise leader last year and he came from the early wave. You have to go back to 2019 to find an afternoon starter sharing the lead.
That's likely down to a number of factors but this large field churning up the greens is one of them, as is the likelihood that a Florida breeze emerges at some point in the day. There's very little in the forecast for Thursday but what there is looks set to increase just a tad as the first round develops.
Another point worth making is that while there's a lot of random in this market, it's not entirely that way. My experience is that early pace-setters often have made a habit of starting fast and we see that here, with Ramey, Tommy Fleetwood, Tom Hoge and Sergio Garcia all having been seen on early leaderboards in the run-up.
Bay Hill in particular has been a worthwhile pointer and there are half a dozen players who started well in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and will now tee-off early for The PLAYERS. That's the group I'm focusing on for the most part and if there's another Ramey lurking, perhaps it's Justin Lower, albeit he will need to improve on his first try at Sawgrass.
First up is EMILIANO GRILLO, who has been inside the top 10 after round one in five of his last 10 starts, including last week.
He produced a similar burst last summer which included leading the Open and with his putter rolling at the moment, I quite like his profile for this event in general. His record of contending at Harbour Town and gradual improvement at River Highlands gives us some Pete Dye form, and he's the sort of rock-solid ball-striker who often thrives in this.
He's led the Arnold Palmer before, been second in the Valspar and has won in Florida on the Korn Ferry Tour, and while he's yet to start fast in this, that doesn't mean his course profile is without encouragement. He shot the joint-lowest round to close out the 2019 renewal and was third-best in the third round two years before that.
RUSSELL HENLEY has also found something with the putter since returning to the east coast and he's a habitual fast starter who again was on the shortlist in the outright market, but looks a better bet in this one.
Henley ranked fourth in round-one scoring the year before last, 11th in 2021 and 15th in 2020, and he's led after round one at the Wyndham twice – that's an event which correlates particularly well with The PLAYERS.
He was second after an opening 65 on his debut in this event and has since held at least a share of the lead eight times, including twice in elite company at the US Open, two FedEx Cup Playoff events, and the Tournament of Champions.
With a strong book of Dye form including at River Highlands and Harbour Town, and after another fast start at Bay Hill, Henley can threaten the lead at a course he's started to play well again lately.
While I wasn't keen on him in the outright market at the odds, anything 40/1 or bigger about SAM BURNS looks worth taking as he looks a more likely leader than he does champion to my eyes.
He was the halfway leader in this two years ago and started well again last year, while he's on a run of under-par first rounds which stretches back to August.
Burns was eighth after round one at Pebble Beach, 14th in Phoenix, 28th at Riviera and fourth last week at Bay Hill, where he was returning following three weeks away and has sometimes struggled in the past.
Few are putting as well as he is at the moment and under calm conditions, a mid-60s round is well within his capabilities from what looks to be a favourable tee-time.
Finally I can't resist a fourth go on first-round three-ball fancy, ALEX NOREN.
He was third and first in this market on his first two visits and has been at the top of his game for months now, during which time he's led in Bermuda and at the AmEx to take his tally to four first-round leads in his last 80-odd appearances.
Outside of the ZOZO Championship in Japan, his last over-par round on the PGA Tour came on September 14 and the Swede, whose skills are well suited to Sawgrass, is an obvious candidate to go low at some stage. Hopefully it's right out of the gates after a top-10 finish last time out at PGA National.
Posted at 1300 GMT on 12/03/24
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